The Achroma Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Snow Splash
3x $0.27
Vendetta
1x $0.29
Snow Splash
2x $0.41
Aeolian Dark
1x $1.33
Banana Leaf
1x $0.34
Picnic
1x $0.61
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
7.5% $6.16
Sky Mandala
7.5% $3.51
Creep
17.5% $2.37
The Daily Deagle
17.5% $2.36
Earth Mandala
7.5% $2.30
Warm Blooded
7.5% $2.28
Max Win
$6.16 (+18.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.61 (-49.7%)
Win %
7.5%
Volatility
+20.9%
Cost
$5.18
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.18
Ask Price EV $2.61 (-49.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.55 (-50.8%)
Ask Profit $-2.57 (-49.7%)
Bid Profit $-2.63 (-50.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+1.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.57
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.63
Risk
Win Probability 7.5%
Loss Probability 92.5%
Best Case $6.16 (+18.9%)
Worst Case $1.88 (-63.6%)
Volatility +20.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 92.5%
Avg Win +$0.98
Avg Loss -$2.86
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.88 (-63.6%)
Std Dev $1.08
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 1h 28m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Factory New
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 45M 52S //TOTAL COST $5.18 //ASK PRICE EV $2.61 //BID PRICE EV $2.55 //ASK PROFIT $-2.57 (-49.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.63 (-50.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 7.5% //BEST CASE $6.16 //VOLATILITY +20.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
7.5%
$6.16
+$0.98
+18.9%
$6.12
+$0.94
+18.1%
$0.04
0.6%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$3.51
-$1.67
-32.2%
$3.42
-$1.76
-34.0%
$0.09
2.7%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$2.37
-$2.81
-54.2%
$2.34
-$2.84
-54.8%
$0.03
1.3%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$2.36
-$2.82
-54.4%
$2.25
-$2.93
-56.6%
$0.11
4.7%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$2.30
-$2.88
-55.5%
$2.25
-$2.93
-56.6%
$0.05
2.3%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$2.28
-$2.90
-56.0%
$2.25
-$2.93
-56.6%
$0.03
1.3%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$2.18
-$3.00
-58.0%
$2.10
-$3.08
-59.5%
$0.08
3.6%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$1.88
-$3.30
-63.6%
$1.86
-$3.32
-64.1%
$0.02
1.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.055904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 2.3705,
"optimistic_value": 2.36,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 2.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:55:29.230130Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.040530399999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.3605,
"optimistic_value": 2.35,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:43:05.542905Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.05241,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 2.1775,
"optimistic_value": 2.16,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 2.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:51.298769Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.045422,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.8835,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:25.395526Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.045422,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.048915999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.5135,
"optimistic_value": 3.51,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:46.233254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.048915999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.353730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.0461208,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.3035,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.818949Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ddcbf4830cc6b74e3fea7400",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "528753387757077705",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:01.552932Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "519746188257911168",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:58:18.925783Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "523123835628238690",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:01.552932Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "517494222855328546",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:01.552932Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"listing_id": "508487189339198054",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:32.325695Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"listing_id": "517493591333368354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:32.325695Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "494976390475599702",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:14:43.456711Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "498354089953516927",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:08.026531Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "501731789729823857",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:02.163852Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "526501587736797929",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:22.501742Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 7.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 7.5% $1.69 Earth Mandala 7.5% $1.20 Warm Blooded 7.5% $1.07 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $1.01 Creep 17.5% $0.93 | $2.93 +233.4% | $1.12 +26.9% | 65.0% | +60.2% | $0.88 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 7.5% $6.16 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $2.36 Aeolian Light 17.5% $1.88 Sky Mandala 7.5% $1.69 Earth Mandala 7.5% $1.20 Warm Blooded 7.5% $1.07 | $6.16 +260.1% | $1.80 +5.1% | 42.5% | +72.8% | $1.71 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 10.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 10.0% $1.87 Earth Mandala 10.0% $1.18 Warm Blooded 10.0% $1.07 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $1.04 Creep 15.0% $0.93 | $2.93 +215.5% | $1.23 +32.2% | 70.0% | +63.9% | $0.93 | — |