The Achroma Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Dark Chamber
4x $0.06
Aeolian Dark
2x $0.07
Vendetta
1x $0.10
Coral Paisley
1x $0.05
Calligrafaux
2x $0.08
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
7.5% $2.60
Sky Mandala
7.5% $1.86
Earth Mandala
7.5% $1.20
Warm Blooded
7.5% $1.05
The Daily Deagle
17.5% $1.02
Creep
17.5% $0.94
Max Win
$2.60 (+206.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.10 (+29.8%)
Win %
65.0%
Volatility
+60.8%
Cost
$0.85
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $0.85
Ask Price EV $1.10 (+29.8%)
Bid Price EV $0.98 (+15.7%)
Ask Profit $0.25 (+29.8%)
Bid Profit $0.13 (+15.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.12 (+14.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.25
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.13
Risk
Win Probability 65.0%
Loss Probability 35.0%
Best Case $2.60 (+206.3%)
Worst Case $0.71 (-16.4%)
Volatility +60.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$0.45
Avg Loss -$0.12
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.71 (-16.4%)
Std Dev $0.52
Avg Norm Float 0.1863
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 47m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 41S //TOTAL COST $0.85 //ASK PRICE EV $1.10 //BID PRICE EV $0.98 //ASK PROFIT $0.25 (+29.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.13 (+15.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 65.0% //BEST CASE $2.60 //VOLATILITY +60.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
7.5%
$2.60
+$1.75
+206.3%
$2.37
+$1.52
+178.8%
$0.23
9.0%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$1.86
+$1.01
+118.9%
$1.56
+$0.71
+83.5%
$0.30
16.2%
—
WIN
7.5%
$1.20
+$0.35
+40.9%
$1.01
+$0.16
+18.8%
$0.19
15.7%
—
WIN
7.5%
$1.05
+$0.20
+23.6%
$1.01
+$0.16
+18.8%
$0.04
3.9%
—
PAPER WIN
17.5%
$1.02
+$0.17
+20.2%
$0.84
-$0.01
-1.2%
$0.18
17.8%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
17.5%
$0.94
+$0.09
+10.6%
$0.86
+$0.01
+1.2%
$0.08
8.5%
—
LOSS
17.5%
$0.75
-$0.10
-11.2%
$0.71
-$0.14
-16.5%
$0.04
5.9%
—
LOSS
17.5%
$0.71
-$0.14
-16.4%
$0.66
-$0.19
-22.4%
$0.05
7.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.149008,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 0.94,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 0.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:43.493041Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.1080308,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 1.022,
"optimistic_value": 0.98,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 0.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:31:30.771197Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.139695,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 0.7545,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:00.003899Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.12106900000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 0.7104999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:03.005323Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.12106900000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 2.6035,
"optimistic_value": 2.6,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 2.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:56.777445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.130382,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 1.8605,
"optimistic_value": 1.85,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.56,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:02.061877Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.130382,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 1.0505,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:53.671597Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.12293160000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 1.1975,
"optimistic_value": 1.18,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:55.397923Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ddcbf4830cc6b74e3fea7400",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "502857689862520720",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:32.013732Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "506234592349701984",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:15.006264Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "497228024529123485",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:32.013732Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "512990789045050115",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:29.199629Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "517494388633142950",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:33.857554Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "496102290329307083",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:29.199629Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "520872088106599836",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:30.941409Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "521997988015876326",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:56.512171Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "499479989896536709",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:46.436729Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "645845544486527565",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:46.436729Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 7.5% $6.21 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $2.37 Aeolian Light 17.5% $1.88 Sky Mandala 7.5% $1.86 Earth Mandala 7.5% $1.20 Warm Blooded 7.5% $1.05 | $6.21 +261.0% | $1.81 +5.5% | 50.0% | +73.0% | $1.72 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 12.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 12.5% $1.68 Earth Mandala 12.5% $1.20 Warm Blooded 12.5% $1.07 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $0.99 Aeolian Light 12.5% $0.71 | $2.93 +233.4% | $1.17 +32.7% | 62.5% | +76.6% | $0.88 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 10.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 10.0% $1.68 Earth Mandala 10.0% $1.20 Warm Blooded 10.0% $1.07 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $0.99 Aeolian Light 15.0% $0.71 | $2.93 +253.5% | $1.06 +27.3% | 55.0% | +77.3% | $0.83 | — |