The Havoc Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Phoenix Marker
1x $7.49
Rose Nacre
2x $0.17
Electric Blue
2x $0.20
Turquoise Pour
3x $0.38
Gum Wall Camo
2x $0.40
↓
Possible Outputs
Night Heist
2.5% $261.13
Tiger Pit
2.5% $52.31
Phoenix Stencil
2.5% $46.15
Bengal Tiger
2.5% $44.35
Mint Fan
18.0% $3.36
Cobalt Paisley
18.0% $2.64
Max Win
$261.13 (+2382.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$12.34 (+17.3%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+395.3%
Cost
$10.52
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.52
Ask Price EV $12.34 (+17.3%)
Bid Price EV $11.63 (+10.5%)
Ask Profit $1.82 (+17.3%)
Bid Profit $1.11 (+10.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.71 (+6.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.82
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.11
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $261.13 (+2382.2%)
Worst Case $1.68 (-84.0%)
Volatility +395.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$90.46
Avg Loss -$8.03
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.68 (-84.0%)
Std Dev $41.58
Avg Norm Float 0.1077
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 138h 27m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Phoenix Marker
—
Field-Tested
$7.49 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 27S //TOTAL COST $10.52 //ASK PRICE EV $12.34 //BID PRICE EV $11.63 //ASK PROFIT $1.82 (+17.3%) //BID PROFIT $1.11 (+10.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $261.13 //VOLATILITY +395.3% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$261.13
+$250.61
+2382.2%
$257.09
+$246.57
+2343.8%
$4.04
1.5%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$52.31
+$41.79
+397.3%
$47.22
+$36.70
+348.9%
$5.09
9.7%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$46.15
+$35.63
+338.6%
$38.11
+$27.59
+262.3%
$8.04
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$44.35
+$33.83
+321.5%
$34.93
+$24.41
+232.0%
$9.42
21.2%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$3.36
-$7.16
-68.0%
$3.34
-$7.18
-68.3%
$0.02
0.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$2.64
-$7.88
-74.9%
$2.64
-$7.88
-74.9%
$0.00
0.1%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.64
-$7.88
-74.9%
$2.62
-$7.90
-75.1%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.12
-$8.40
-79.9%
$1.99
-$8.53
-81.1%
$0.13
6.0%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.68
-$8.84
-84.0%
$1.61
-$8.91
-84.7%
$0.07
4.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-op10-t|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.064596,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3635,
"optimistic_value": 3.36,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:46:13.777256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.075362,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.6815,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:46:26.172784Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.069979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:19.246119Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.064596,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:44:56.785405Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.064596,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.117,
"optimistic_value": 2.11,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:19.012953Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.069979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e63e9d7401f5",
"realistic_value": 261.126,
"optimistic_value": 259.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Night Heist",
"conservative_value": 257.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Havoc Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:33.896819Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e63e9d7401f5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.069979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3190df4f462d",
"realistic_value": 46.145,
"optimistic_value": 42.82,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Phoenix Stencil",
"conservative_value": 38.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Havoc Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Phoenix Stencil (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T08:24:03.604564Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3190df4f462d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.1396684,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62bb5a38a96d",
"realistic_value": 44.345,
"optimistic_value": 42.91,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Bengal Tiger",
"conservative_value": 34.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Havoc Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T10:58:51.622258Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62bb5a38a96d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.05383,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c61427e2101",
"realistic_value": 52.3115,
"optimistic_value": 49.27,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Tiger Pit",
"conservative_value": 47.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Havoc Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Tiger Pit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:00:51.042336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c61427e2101.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d8ec745cd40eb129ff1ad9e6",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 7.49,
"skin_id": "skin-53e224af9282",
"listing_id": "514116688948802454",
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Phoenix Marker (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Phoenix Marker",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53e224af9282.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:05:03.776302Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "516368488724892626",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:54.256594Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "499479989895797449",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:31.831693Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "654852743754232591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:31.831693Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:48:36.003942Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "515242536109828297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:48:36.003942Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "492724538181074817",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:52.601892Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "529878490365643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:48:36.003942Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "521997935570479518",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:52.601892Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "494976390476374350",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:02:53.459242Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-op10-t:1+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Havoc Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Phoenix Blacklight  3.3% $506.91 Franklin  3.3% $390.41 Hypnotic  3.3% $143.31 Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.61 | $506.91 +877.5% | $58.33 +12.5% | 10.0% | +208.5% | $51.86 | — |