The Havoc Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Phoenix Marker
1x $6.12
Electric Blue
2x $0.10
Sour Grapes
1x $0.10
Rose Nacre
2x $0.12
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.13
Robin's Egg
2x $0.14
↓
Possible Outputs
Night Heist
2.5% $45.64
Phoenix Stencil
2.5% $42.29
Tiger Pit
2.5% $38.50
Bengal Tiger
2.5% $27.25
Yeti Camo
18.0% $1.77
Royal Baroque
18.0% $1.19
Max Win
$45.64 (+517.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.96 (-32.9%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+153.9%
Cost
$7.39
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.39
Ask Price EV $4.96 (-32.9%)
Bid Price EV $4.26 (-42.4%)
Ask Profit $-2.43 (-32.9%)
Bid Profit $-3.13 (-42.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.70 (+9.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.43
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.13
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $45.64 (+517.6%)
Worst Case $1.05 (-85.8%)
Volatility +153.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$31.03
Avg Loss -$6.15
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.05 (-85.8%)
Std Dev $11.37
Avg Norm Float 0.2125
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 138h 37m
Oldest Output Price 140h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Phoenix Marker
—
Battle-Scarred
$6.12 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 58M 55S //TOTAL COST $7.39 //ASK PRICE EV $4.96 //BID PRICE EV $4.26 //ASK PROFIT $-2.43 (-32.9%) //BID PROFIT $-3.13 (-42.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $45.64 //VOLATILITY +153.9% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$45.64
+$38.25
+517.6%
$43.09
+$35.70
+483.1%
$2.55
5.6%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.5%
$42.29
+$34.90
+472.2%
$30.59
+$23.20
+313.9%
$11.70
27.7%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$38.50
+$31.11
+421.0%
$30.56
+$23.17
+313.5%
$7.94
20.6%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$27.25
+$19.86
+268.7%
$26.10
+$18.71
+253.2%
$1.15
4.2%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.77
-$5.62
-76.0%
$1.61
-$5.78
-78.2%
$0.16
9.0%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.19
-$6.20
-83.9%
$1.01
-$6.38
-86.3%
$0.18
14.9%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.11
-$6.28
-84.9%
$1.04
-$6.35
-85.9%
$0.07
6.6%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.09
-$6.30
-85.2%
$0.94
-$6.45
-87.3%
$0.15
14.0%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.05
-$6.34
-85.8%
$0.95
-$6.44
-87.1%
$0.10
9.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-op10-t|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.12748199999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 1.0935000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.09,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 0.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:39:59.589450Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14872899999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.77,
"optimistic_value": 1.77,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:47.745051Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.1381055,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.1135000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.11,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:30.148159Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.12748199999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 1.1869999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.18,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:46.944586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.12748199999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 1.046,
"optimistic_value": 0.99,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 0.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:54.161430Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.1381055,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e63e9d7401f5",
"realistic_value": 45.644,
"optimistic_value": 45.14,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Night Heist",
"conservative_value": 43.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Havoc Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:49.691828Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e63e9d7401f5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.1381055,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3190df4f462d",
"realistic_value": 42.2885,
"optimistic_value": 41.13,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Phoenix Stencil",
"conservative_value": 30.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Havoc Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Phoenix Stencil (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:03:31.427361Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3190df4f462d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.2172278,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62bb5a38a96d",
"realistic_value": 27.2465,
"optimistic_value": 27.11,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Bengal Tiger",
"conservative_value": 26.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Havoc Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T21:05:50.617489Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62bb5a38a96d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.106235,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c61427e2101",
"realistic_value": 38.504000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 37.09,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Tiger Pit",
"conservative_value": 30.56,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Havoc Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Tiger Pit (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:47.809593Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c61427e2101.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d8ec745cd40eb129ff1ad9e6",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 6.12,
"skin_id": "skin-53e224af9282",
"listing_id": "642467916666780761",
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Phoenix Marker (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Phoenix Marker",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53e224af9282.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:36:08.652970Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "527626690812448112",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:48:34.368077Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "521997191227767930",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:48:31.969349Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "500605889841070679",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:48:47.362653Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "524249787961219803",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:50:07.614222Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "502857637417906948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:51:11.676402Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "525375635593436155",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:51:11.676402Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "491597893797568694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:55:42.589864Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "516368488724892626",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:48:47.362653Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "517494388633292314",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:12:05.023475Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-op10-t:1+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Havoc Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Heist 2.5% $261.13 Tiger Pit 2.5% $52.31 Phoenix Stencil 2.5% $46.15 Bengal Tiger 2.5% $44.35 Mint Fan 18.0% $3.37 Cobalt Paisley 18.0% $2.66 | $261.13 +2396.4% | $12.38 +18.3% | 10.0% | +391.0% | $10.46 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Havoc Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Phoenix Blacklight  3.3% $506.91 Franklin  3.3% $390.41 Hypnotic  3.3% $143.31 Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.61 | $506.91 +869.8% | $58.33 +11.6% | 10.0% | +206.9% | $52.27 | — |