The Havoc Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Phoenix Marker
1x $7.49
Electric Blue
1x $0.34
Gum Wall Camo
2x $0.36
Rose Nacre
1x $0.43
Ocean Topo
5x $1.05
↓
Possible Outputs
Night Heist
2.5% $261.13
Tiger Pit
2.5% $52.31
Phoenix Stencil
2.5% $46.15
Bengal Tiger
2.5% $44.35
Yeti Camo
18.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
18.0% $3.37
Max Win
$261.13 (+1482.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$12.86 (-22.1%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+251.3%
Cost
$16.50
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $16.50
Ask Price EV $12.86 (-22.1%)
Bid Price EV $12.14 (-26.4%)
Ask Profit $-3.64 (-22.1%)
Bid Profit $-4.36 (-26.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.72 (+4.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.64
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.36
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $261.13 (+1482.6%)
Worst Case $2.22 (-86.5%)
Volatility +251.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$84.48
Avg Loss -$13.43
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.22 (-86.5%)
Std Dev $41.46
Avg Norm Float 0.0695
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 139h 27m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Phoenix Marker
—
Field-Tested
$7.49 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.41 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.45 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 58M 30S //TOTAL COST $16.50 //ASK PRICE EV $12.86 //BID PRICE EV $12.14 //ASK PROFIT $-3.64 (-22.1%) //BID PROFIT $-4.36 (-26.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $261.13 //VOLATILITY +251.3% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$261.13
+$244.63
+1482.6%
$257.09
+$240.59
+1458.1%
$4.04
1.5%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$52.31
+$35.81
+217.0%
$47.22
+$30.72
+186.2%
$5.09
9.7%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$46.15
+$29.65
+179.7%
$38.11
+$21.61
+131.0%
$8.04
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$44.35
+$27.85
+168.8%
$34.93
+$18.43
+111.7%
$9.42
21.2%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$4.46
-$12.04
-73.0%
$4.43
-$12.07
-73.2%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$3.37
-$13.13
-79.6%
$3.34
-$13.16
-79.8%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.66
-$13.84
-83.9%
$2.64
-$13.86
-84.0%
$0.02
0.6%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.64
-$13.86
-84.0%
$2.62
-$13.88
-84.1%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.22
-$14.28
-86.5%
$1.99
-$14.51
-87.9%
$0.23
10.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-op10-t|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.041687999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:49.785935Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.048636,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:42:10.424256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.045162,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.756353Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.041687999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:27.844587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.041687999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.221,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.346295Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.045162,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e63e9d7401f5",
"realistic_value": 261.126,
"optimistic_value": 259.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Night Heist",
"conservative_value": 257.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Havoc Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:33.896819Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e63e9d7401f5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.045162,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3190df4f462d",
"realistic_value": 46.145,
"optimistic_value": 42.82,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Phoenix Stencil",
"conservative_value": 38.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Havoc Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Phoenix Stencil (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T08:24:03.604564Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3190df4f462d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.11141519999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62bb5a38a96d",
"realistic_value": 44.345,
"optimistic_value": 42.91,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Bengal Tiger",
"conservative_value": 34.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Havoc Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T10:58:51.622258Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62bb5a38a96d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.03474,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c61427e2101",
"realistic_value": 52.3115,
"optimistic_value": 49.27,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Tiger Pit",
"conservative_value": 47.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Havoc Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Tiger Pit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:00:51.042336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c61427e2101.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d8ec745cd40eb129ff1ad9e6",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 7.49,
"skin_id": "skin-53e224af9282",
"listing_id": "514116688948802454",
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-t",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Phoenix Marker (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Phoenix Marker",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53e224af9282.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:55:54.484590Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "497228024527615625",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:12:05.023475Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "496102290328809707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:29.067325Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "494976390476374350",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:44.446260Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:29.067325Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "622201718380639200",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:10.636074Z"
},
{
"price": 1.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "491598690698614598",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:10.636074Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "491598690698614958",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:10.636074Z"
},
{
"price": 1.45,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "528753221919408945",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:10.636074Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "491598690698619998",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:10.636074Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-op10-t:1+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Havoc Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Heist 2.5% $261.13 Tiger Pit 2.5% $52.31 Phoenix Stencil 2.5% $46.15 Bengal Tiger 2.5% $44.35 Mint Fan 18.0% $3.37 Cobalt Paisley 18.0% $2.66 | $261.13 +2396.4% | $12.38 +18.3% | 10.0% | +391.0% | $10.46 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Havoc Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Phoenix Blacklight  3.3% $506.91 Franklin  3.3% $390.41 Hypnotic  3.3% $143.31 Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.61 | $506.91 +869.8% | $58.33 +11.6% | 10.0% | +206.9% | $52.27 | — |