The Revolver Case Collection ×7+The Snakebite Collection ×3

Classified → Covert FN ST 10 items

Factory New -30.0%Field-Tested +34.4%Minimal Wear +27.2%

Contract

Classified → Covert Factory New StatTrak™

Inputs

Shapewood

5x $20.21

The Executioner

2x $117.70

Food Chain

1x $44.40

XOXO

2x $52.97

↓

Possible Outputs

Royal Paladin

35.0% $696.64

The Traitor

15.0% $346.69

Fade

35.0% $318.51

In Living Color

15.0% $188.85

Max Win

$696.64 (+12.0%)

EV (ROI %)

$435.63 (-30.0%)

Win %

35.0%

Volatility

+31.7%

Cost

$621.89

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $621.89

Ask Price EV $435.63 (-30.0%)

Bid Price EV $265.25 (-57.3%)

Ask Profit $-186.26 (-30.0%)

Bid Profit $-356.64 (-57.3%)

Liquidity Gap $170.39 (+27.4%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$186.26

Bid Slippage Buffer -$356.64

Risk

Win Probability 35.0%

Loss Probability 65.0%

Best Case $696.64 (+12.0%)

Worst Case $188.85 (-69.6%)

Volatility +31.7%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%

Avg Win +$74.75

Avg Loss -$326.80

Bottom 5% Outcome $188.85 (-69.6%)

Std Dev $197.40

Avg Norm Float 0.0693

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 140h 34m

Oldest Output Price 142h 22m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P90 | Shapewood

—

Minimal Wear

$20.21 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Shapewood

—

Minimal Wear

$21.18 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Shapewood

—

Minimal Wear

$26.07 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Shapewood

—

Minimal Wear

$28.75 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Shapewood

—

Factory New

$77.69 Float: HIDDEN

G3SG1 | The Executioner

—

Field-Tested

$117.70 Float: HIDDEN

G3SG1 | The Executioner

—

Minimal Wear

$176.27 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Food Chain

—

Factory New

$44.40 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | XOXO

—

Factory New

$52.97 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | XOXO

—

Factory New

$56.65 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 14M 30S //TOTAL COST $621.89 //ASK PRICE EV $435.63 //BID PRICE EV $265.25 //ASK PROFIT $-186.26 (-30.0%) //BID PROFIT $-356.64 (-57.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $696.64 //VOLATILITY +31.7% //

Possible Outputs · 4

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-10|Classified|stattrak",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-28|Classified|stattrak",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-28"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.05544,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-4c83a4940ef3",
      "realistic_value": 696.6374999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 557.31,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Royal Paladin",
      "conservative_value": 395.34,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:35:59.515866Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c83a4940ef3.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.02772,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-3d5660b8b090",
      "realistic_value": 318.5125,
      "optimistic_value": 254.81,
      "output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Fade",
      "conservative_value": 177.41,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:28:16.437303Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3d5660b8b090.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.054747000000000004,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-c62d08aa8da1",
      "realistic_value": 188.85,
      "optimistic_value": 185,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | In Living Color",
      "conservative_value": 161.97,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:23:41.947075Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c62d08aa8da1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.0693,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-7dc4b0b65850",
      "realistic_value": 346.6905,
      "optimistic_value": 337.3,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | The Traitor",
      "conservative_value": 269.93,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:33:09.573004Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7dc4b0b65850.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_d89677ea047b97c8d507ce92",
  "input_rarity": "Classified",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 20.21,
      "skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
      "listing_id": "783200338039312163",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Shapewood",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:42.810215Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 21.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
      "listing_id": "636836442316788129",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Shapewood",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:42.810215Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 26.07,
      "skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
      "listing_id": "764053623326636136",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Shapewood",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:42.810215Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 28.75,
      "skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
      "listing_id": "507359315990892427",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Shapewood",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:42.810215Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 77.69,
      "skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
      "listing_id": "525375635592698155",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Shapewood",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:42:46.232712Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 117.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-b0c24d905a01",
      "listing_id": "748290307142215969",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "G3SG1 | The Executioner",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b0c24d905a01.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:18.844331Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 176.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-b0c24d905a01",
      "listing_id": "500605092729988715",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "G3SG1 | The Executioner",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b0c24d905a01.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:23:42.045768Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 44.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-6d14d557c648",
      "listing_id": "528752590509334017",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Food Chain (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP9 | Food Chain",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6d14d557c648.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T06:22:08.270680Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 52.97,
      "skin_id": "skin-dad23c017c83",
      "listing_id": "627829243037205539",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New)",
      "name": "XM1014 | XOXO",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dad23c017c83.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:42:58.061092Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 56.65,
      "skin_id": "skin-dad23c017c83",
      "listing_id": "499479989896573321",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New)",
      "name": "XM1014 | XOXO",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dad23c017c83.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:42:58.061092Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Covert",
  "stattrak_mode": true,
  "composition_key": "Classified|Covert|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-10:7+collection-set-community-28:3"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Revolver Case Collection ×7+The Snakebite Collection ×3 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST	Fade 35.0% $318.51 Royal Paladin 35.0% $173.55 In Living Color 15.0% $87.00 The Traitor 15.0% $79.54	$318.51 +117.1%	$197.20 +34.4%	70.0%	+65.5%	$146.73	—
The Revolver Case Collection ×7+The Snakebite Collection ×3 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear ST	Fade 35.0% $318.51 Royal Paladin 35.0% $173.55 The Traitor 15.0% $138.78 In Living Color 15.0% $87.00	$318.51 +96.6%	$206.09 +27.2%	70.0%	+53.8%	$162.04	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Revolver Case Collection ×6+The Snakebite Collection ×4 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST	Fade 30.0% $318.51 Royal Paladin 30.0% $173.55 In Living Color 20.0% $87.00 The Traitor 20.0% $79.54	$318.51 +127.9%	$180.92 +29.5%	60.0%	+69.8%	$139.73	—
The Revolver Case Collection ×5+The Snakebite Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST	Fade 25.0% $318.51 Royal Paladin 25.0% $173.55 In Living Color 25.0% $87.00 The Traitor 25.0% $79.54	$318.51 +137.4%	$164.65 +22.7%	50.0%	+71.7%	$134.14	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Snakebite Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST	Slate 14.0% $35.89 Power Loader 5.0% $20.64 Avalanche 5.0% $17.49 Retrobution 5.0% $9.43 Teclu Burner 5.0% $8.17 Trigger Discipline 14.0% $7.72	$35.89 +278.9%	$10.46 +10.4%	24.0%	+105.4%	$9.47	—