The Genesis Collection ×9+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Red Wing
2x $0.13
Caged
4x $0.15
Bullfrog
3x $0.18
Blue Fissure
1x $3.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Copper Galaxy
2.5% $18.69
Titanium Bit
2.5% $12.41
Heirloom
2.5% $10.97
Tread Plate
2.5% $8.11
Liquidation
18.0% $2.49
Cat Fight
18.0% $0.96
Max Win
$18.69 (+269.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.35 (-53.6%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+72.4%
Cost
$5.06
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.06
Ask Price EV $2.35 (-53.6%)
Bid Price EV $2.19 (-56.7%)
Ask Profit $-2.71 (-53.6%)
Bid Profit $-2.87 (-56.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.16 (+3.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.71
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.87
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $18.69 (+269.4%)
Worst Case $0.83 (-83.7%)
Volatility +72.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$7.49
Avg Loss -$3.85
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.83 (-83.7%)
Std Dev $3.66
Avg Norm Float 0.4095
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 141h 24m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Battle-Scarred
$3.48 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 20S //TOTAL COST $5.06 //ASK PRICE EV $2.35 //BID PRICE EV $2.19 //ASK PROFIT $-2.71 (-53.6%) //BID PROFIT $-2.87 (-56.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $18.69 //VOLATILITY +72.4% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$18.69
+$13.63
+269.4%
$17.68
+$12.62
+249.4%
$1.01
5.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$12.41
+$7.35
+145.2%
$11.86
+$6.80
+134.4%
$0.55
4.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$10.97
+$5.91
+116.9%
$10.66
+$5.60
+110.7%
$0.31
2.9%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$8.11
+$3.05
+60.3%
$7.93
+$2.87
+56.7%
$0.18
2.2%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.49
-$2.57
-50.7%
$2.20
-$2.86
-56.5%
$0.29
11.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.96
-$4.10
-80.9%
$0.82
-$4.24
-83.8%
$0.14
14.9%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.93
-$4.13
-81.6%
$0.82
-$4.24
-83.8%
$0.11
11.9%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.85
-$4.21
-83.1%
$0.83
-$4.23
-83.6%
$0.02
2.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.83
-$4.23
-83.7%
$0.81
-$4.25
-84.0%
$0.02
2.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.40948,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 0.8534999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.85,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:31:00.709077Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.40948,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 2.4935,
"optimistic_value": 2.49,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 2.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:16.804583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.40948,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 0.964,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T05:51:56.092922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.40948,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 0.827,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:26.477054Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.40948,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 0.9305,
"optimistic_value": 0.92,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:07.840943Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.08189600000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ed635da7e55",
"realistic_value": 8.11,
"optimistic_value": 7.97,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate",
"conservative_value": 7.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T16:07:07.108406Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ed635da7e55.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.32758400000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6730ed01353f",
"realistic_value": 10.9735,
"optimistic_value": 10.83,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom",
"conservative_value": 10.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T10:41:05.067709Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6730ed01353f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.08189600000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a5e6018f632",
"realistic_value": 18.693,
"optimistic_value": 18,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy",
"conservative_value": 17.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:55:09.567828Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5e6018f632.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.08189600000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ce20dbe572e3",
"realistic_value": 12.4085,
"optimistic_value": 12.23,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit",
"conservative_value": 11.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:33:24.995513Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ce20dbe572e3.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d48664e4b36270a398aaf791",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "526501587737373497",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:58.621132Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "519746188257532268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:58.621132Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "520872088106042304",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:49.467516Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "526501535294599109",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:49.467516Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "518620288313979112",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:08.102712Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "511864888984945953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:29.598888Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "492724538183335041",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:29.598888Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "492724538183351061",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:08.102712Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "505108692500795132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:29.598888Z"
},
{
"price": 3.48,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "658230515410739342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:22.607852Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:9+collection-set-weapons-iii:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Heirloom 2.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 2.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 2.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 2.5% $26.30 Liquidation 18.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 18.0% $6.52 | $313.93 +1688.8% | $19.20 +9.4% | 28.0% | +271.1% | $17.55 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 2.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 2.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 2.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 2.5% $26.30 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.19 | $313.93 +2311.2% | $14.09 +8.2% | 10.0% | +373.5% | $13.02 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 7.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 7.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 7.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 7.5% $26.30 Liquidation 14.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 14.0% $2.18 | $313.93 +982.9% | $35.85 +23.7% | 22.5% | +270.0% | $28.99 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 10.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 10.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 10.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 10.0% $26.30 Liquidation 12.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 12.0% $2.28 | $313.93 +728.5% | $46.75 +23.4% | 30.0% | +230.3% | $37.89 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 12.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 12.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 12.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 12.5% $26.30 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.19 | $313.93 +565.0% | $57.62 +22.0% | 37.5% | +199.8% | $47.21 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 5.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 5.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 5.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 5.0% $26.30 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.19 | $313.93 +1418.1% | $24.97 +20.8% | 20.0% | +320.4% | $20.68 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 15.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 15.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 15.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 15.0% $26.30 Liquidation 8.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 8.0% $2.18 | $313.93 +445.3% | $68.50 +19.0% | 30.0% | +173.9% | $57.57 | — |