The Genesis Collection ×9+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Red Wing
4x $0.65
Focus
3x $1.34
MAGnitude
1x $1.35
Broken Record
1x $2.41
Blue Fissure
1x $4.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Heirloom
2.5% $313.93
Copper Galaxy
2.5% $57.94
Titanium Bit
2.5% $49.92
Tread Plate
2.5% $26.30
Liquidation
18.0% $19.42
Cat Fight
18.0% $6.45
Max Win
$313.93 (+1704.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.19 (+10.3%)
Win %
28.0%
Volatility
+278.9%
Cost
$17.40
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $17.40
Ask Price EV $19.19 (+10.3%)
Bid Price EV $16.70 (-4.0%)
Ask Profit $1.79 (+10.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.70 (-4.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.49 (+14.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.79
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.70
Risk
Win Probability 28.0%
Loss Probability 72.0%
Best Case $313.93 (+1704.2%)
Worst Case $6.09 (-65.0%)
Volatility +278.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 72.0%
Avg Win +$35.09
Avg Loss -$11.17
Bottom 5% Outcome $6.09 (-65.0%)
Std Dev $48.53
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 140h 16m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New
$1.34 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | MAGnitude
—
Factory New
$1.35 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$1.38 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$1.54 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$2.41 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$4.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 16S //TOTAL COST $17.40 //ASK PRICE EV $19.19 //BID PRICE EV $16.70 //ASK PROFIT $1.79 (+10.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.70 (-4.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 28.0% //BEST CASE $313.93 //VOLATILITY +278.9% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$313.93
+$296.53
+1704.2%
$251.97
+$234.57
+1348.1%
$61.96
19.7%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$57.94
+$40.54
+233.0%
$55.32
+$37.92
+217.9%
$2.62
4.5%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$49.92
+$32.52
+186.9%
$43.25
+$25.85
+148.6%
$6.67
13.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$26.30
+$8.90
+51.2%
$23.55
+$6.15
+35.3%
$2.75
10.5%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$19.42
+$2.02
+11.6%
$16.07
-$1.33
-7.6%
$3.35
17.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$6.45
-$10.95
-62.9%
$6.35
-$11.05
-63.5%
$0.10
1.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$6.27
-$11.13
-64.0%
$6.21
-$11.19
-64.3%
$0.06
1.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$6.13
-$11.27
-64.8%
$6.11
-$11.29
-64.9%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$6.09
-$11.31
-65.0%
$6.07
-$11.33
-65.1%
$0.02
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 6.27,
"optimistic_value": 6.27,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:22.180238Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 19.4155,
"optimistic_value": 19.37,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 16.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:11:14.220331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 6.4485,
"optimistic_value": 6.41,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 6.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:34.947008Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 6.09,
"optimistic_value": 6.09,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 6.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:30.285381Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 6.13,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 6.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:07.337312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.013994000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ed635da7e55",
"realistic_value": 26.304,
"optimistic_value": 26.22,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate",
"conservative_value": 23.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:47.162368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ed635da7e55.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.055976000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6730ed01353f",
"realistic_value": 313.933,
"optimistic_value": 293.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom",
"conservative_value": 251.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:44:47.265430Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6730ed01353f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.013994000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a5e6018f632",
"realistic_value": 57.9445,
"optimistic_value": 57.5,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy",
"conservative_value": 55.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:57:42.344378Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5e6018f632.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.013994000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ce20dbe572e3",
"realistic_value": 49.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 49.88,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit",
"conservative_value": 43.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:04.028074Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ce20dbe572e3.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d48664e4b36270a398aaf791",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "514116636505205970",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:56.603297Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "519745391330807492",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:56.603297Z"
},
{
"price": 1.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "519746188258177352",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:13:49.620700Z"
},
{
"price": 1.35,
"skin_id": "skin-e8947585ba24",
"listing_id": "515242588553725165",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8947585ba24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:03.880792Z"
},
{
"price": 1.38,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "508487189339729990",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:16.804192Z"
},
{
"price": 1.54,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "520872088106110956",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:16.804192Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "519746135813889740",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:13:49.620700Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "516368322945932594",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:13:49.620700Z"
},
{
"price": 2.41,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "521997988014612582",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:24.603770Z"
},
{
"price": 4,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "526501535293799549",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:08:55.565353Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:9+collection-set-weapons-iii:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 2.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 2.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 2.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 2.5% $26.30 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.18 | $313.93 +2331.7% | $14.09 +9.1% | 10.0% | +376.7% | $12.91 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 7.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 7.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 7.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 7.5% $26.30 Liquidation 14.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 14.0% $2.29 | $313.93 +989.3% | $35.87 +24.5% | 22.5% | +271.6% | $28.82 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 10.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 10.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 10.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 10.0% $26.30 Liquidation 12.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 12.0% $2.18 | $313.93 +731.8% | $46.73 +23.8% | 30.0% | +231.2% | $37.74 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 5.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 5.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 5.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 5.0% $26.30 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.29 | $313.93 +1435.1% | $24.99 +22.2% | 20.0% | +324.0% | $20.45 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 12.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 12.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 12.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 12.5% $26.30 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.18 | $313.93 +565.0% | $57.62 +22.0% | 37.5% | +199.8% | $47.21 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 15.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 15.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 15.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 15.0% $26.30 Liquidation 8.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 8.0% $2.29 | $313.93 +445.3% | $68.51 +19.0% | 30.0% | +173.9% | $57.57 | — |