The Genesis Collection ×9+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Red Wing
1x $0.13
Caged
3x $0.14
Focus
1x $0.15
Bullfrog
3x $0.19
Broken Record
1x $0.36
Blue Fissure
1x $3.68
↓
Possible Outputs
Copper Galaxy
2.5% $57.94
Titanium Bit
2.5% $49.92
Tread Plate
2.5% $26.30
Heirloom
2.5% $10.97
Liquidation
18.0% $4.01
Ocular
18.0% $1.19
Max Win
$57.94 (+929.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.16 (-8.4%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+213.0%
Cost
$5.63
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.63
Ask Price EV $5.16 (-8.4%)
Bid Price EV $4.69 (-16.7%)
Ask Profit $-0.47 (-8.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.94 (-16.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.47 (+8.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.47
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.94
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $57.94 (+929.2%)
Worst Case $1.07 (-80.9%)
Volatility +213.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$30.66
Avg Loss -$3.93
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.07 (-80.9%)
Std Dev $11.99
Avg Norm Float 0.3258
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 140h 17m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Well-Worn
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$3.68 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 08S //TOTAL COST $5.63 //ASK PRICE EV $5.16 //BID PRICE EV $4.69 //ASK PROFIT $-0.47 (-8.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.94 (-16.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $57.94 //VOLATILITY +213.0% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$57.94
+$52.31
+929.2%
$55.32
+$49.69
+882.6%
$2.62
4.5%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$49.92
+$44.29
+786.7%
$43.25
+$37.62
+668.2%
$6.67
13.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$26.30
+$20.67
+367.2%
$23.55
+$17.92
+318.3%
$2.75
10.5%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$10.97
+$5.34
+94.9%
$10.66
+$5.03
+89.3%
$0.31
2.9%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$4.01
-$1.62
-28.7%
$3.61
-$2.02
-35.9%
$0.40
10.1%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.19
-$4.44
-78.9%
$1.01
-$4.62
-82.1%
$0.18
15.1%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.13
-$4.50
-79.9%
$1.04
-$4.59
-81.5%
$0.09
8.0%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.09
-$4.55
-80.7%
$1.00
-$4.63
-82.2%
$0.08
7.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.07
-$4.56
-80.9%
$0.96
-$4.67
-82.9%
$0.11
10.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.32578,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 1.085,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:21.648294Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.32578,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 4.0145,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:12.174520Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.32578,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 1.1305,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T20:16:13.485553Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.32578,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 1.19,
"optimistic_value": 1.19,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:35.611521Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.32578,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 1.0735000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:21.881365Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.065156,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ed635da7e55",
"realistic_value": 26.304,
"optimistic_value": 26.22,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate",
"conservative_value": 23.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:47.162368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ed635da7e55.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.260624,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6730ed01353f",
"realistic_value": 10.9735,
"optimistic_value": 10.83,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom",
"conservative_value": 10.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T10:41:05.067709Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6730ed01353f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.065156,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a5e6018f632",
"realistic_value": 57.9445,
"optimistic_value": 57.5,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy",
"conservative_value": 55.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:57:42.344378Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5e6018f632.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.065156,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ce20dbe572e3",
"realistic_value": 49.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 49.88,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit",
"conservative_value": 43.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:04.028074Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ce20dbe572e3.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d48664e4b36270a398aaf791",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "499479989896194637",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:50.440460Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "529879287550970820",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:42.993430Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "497228190141525845",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:32.290888Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "515242588554328669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:36.556843Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "492724538183335041",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:35.023036Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "518620235869812748",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:36.556843Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "505108692500795132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:35.023036Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "528753387757301337",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:39.110645Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "529879287550971288",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:51:09.312965Z"
},
{
"price": 3.68,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "505109489448511904",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:08:55.565353Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:9+collection-set-weapons-iii:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Heirloom 2.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 2.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 2.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 2.5% $26.30 Liquidation 18.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 18.0% $6.45 | $313.93 +1704.2% | $19.19 +10.3% | 28.0% | +273.4% | $17.40 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 2.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 2.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 2.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 2.5% $26.30 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.18 | $313.93 +2331.7% | $14.09 +9.1% | 10.0% | +376.7% | $12.91 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 7.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 7.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 7.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 7.5% $26.30 Liquidation 14.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 14.0% $2.29 | $313.93 +989.3% | $35.87 +24.5% | 22.5% | +271.6% | $28.82 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 10.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 10.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 10.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 10.0% $26.30 Liquidation 12.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 12.0% $2.18 | $313.93 +731.8% | $46.73 +23.8% | 30.0% | +231.2% | $37.74 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 5.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 5.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 5.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 5.0% $26.30 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.29 | $313.93 +1435.1% | $24.99 +22.2% | 20.0% | +324.0% | $20.45 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 12.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 12.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 12.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 12.5% $26.30 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.18 | $313.93 +565.0% | $57.62 +22.0% | 37.5% | +199.8% | $47.21 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 15.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 15.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 15.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 15.0% $26.30 Liquidation 8.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 8.0% $2.29 | $313.93 +445.3% | $68.51 +19.0% | 30.0% | +173.9% | $57.57 | — |