The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Restricted → Classified MW ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Kitbash
3x $2.00
Amberline
4x $2.91
Urban Sovereign
3x $3.64
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
23.3% $126.41
Kintsugi
23.3% $23.08
Deathgaze
23.3% $21.31
Tooth Fairy
10.0% $19.65
Vogue
10.0% $17.87
Entombed
10.0% $9.37
Max Win
$126.41 (+222.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$44.54 (+13.6%)
Win %
23.3%
Volatility
+115.6%
Cost
$39.20
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $39.20
Ask Price EV $44.54 (+13.6%)
Bid Price EV $39.64 (+1.1%)
Ask Profit $5.34 (+13.6%)
Bid Profit $0.44 (+1.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $4.90 (+12.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$5.34
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.44
Risk
Win Probability 23.3%
Loss Probability 76.7%
Best Case $126.41 (+222.5%)
Worst Case $9.37 (-76.1%)
Volatility +115.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 76.7%
Avg Win +$87.21
Avg Loss -$19.57
Bottom 5% Outcome $9.37 (-76.1%)
Std Dev $45.32
Avg Norm Float 0.1496
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 145h 35m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Kitbash
—
Minimal Wear
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Kitbash
—
Minimal Wear
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Kitbash
—
Minimal Wear
$2.21 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$2.91 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$3.52 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.64 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.41 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 40S //TOTAL COST $39.20 //ASK PRICE EV $44.54 //BID PRICE EV $39.64 //ASK PROFIT $5.34 (+13.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.44 (+1.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 23.3% //BEST CASE $126.41 //VOLATILITY +115.6% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$126.41
+$87.21
+222.5%
$112.39
+$73.19
+186.7%
$14.02
11.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$23.08
-$16.12
-41.1%
$20.66
-$18.54
-47.3%
$2.42
10.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$21.31
-$17.89
-45.6%
$19.38
-$19.82
-50.6%
$1.93
9.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$19.65
-$19.55
-49.9%
$16.67
-$22.53
-57.5%
$2.98
15.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$17.87
-$21.33
-54.4%
$15.98
-$23.22
-59.2%
$1.89
10.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$9.37
-$29.83
-76.1%
$8.08
-$31.12
-79.4%
$1.29
13.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 126.41149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 124,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 112.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.452841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 23.082,
"optimistic_value": 22.9,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 20.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:52.783024Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 21.3125,
"optimistic_value": 20.56,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 19.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:57.136134Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.11220000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e390882e9a0",
"realistic_value": 17.869500000000002,
"optimistic_value": 17.6,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Vogue",
"conservative_value": 15.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:37.330484Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e390882e9a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.109208,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1e9229953491",
"realistic_value": 19.648,
"optimistic_value": 19.55,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Tooth Fairy",
"conservative_value": 16.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:26:59.725320Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1e9229953491.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0748,
"output_skin_id": "skin-daae504f859c",
"realistic_value": 9.3695,
"optimistic_value": 9.17,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Entombed",
"conservative_value": 8.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:20.633822Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-daae504f859c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d0e1a202111dd70adc21554c",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"listing_id": "643592475756563867",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:08.268992Z"
},
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"listing_id": "509613036860352603",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:08.268992Z"
},
{
"price": 2.21,
"skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"listing_id": "490471993876381083",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:08.268992Z"
},
{
"price": 2.91,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "501731789730739121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:05.598022Z"
},
{
"price": 3.52,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "497228024527485521",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:05.598022Z"
},
{
"price": 3.64,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "498354037510570279",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:51.873215Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "501731789730735413",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:56.729750Z"
},
{
"price": 5.38,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605837398261191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:56.729750Z"
},
{
"price": 6.4,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "519746188259003948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:13.519522Z"
},
{
"price": 6.41,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "528753387757823085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:13.519522Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:3+collection-set-community-37:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 23.3% $64.80 Deathgaze 23.3% $58.69 Tooth Fairy 10.0% $39.26 Vogue 10.0% $36.23 Entombed 10.0% $17.64 | $290.04 +252.3% | $105.80 +28.5% | 23.3% | +124.7% | $82.34 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 23.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 23.3% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 10.0% $11.12 Vogue 10.0% $10.20 Entombed 10.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +231.9% | $23.42 +21.7% | 23.3% | +116.2% | $19.24 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Battle-Scarred ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $46.25 Vogue 10.0% $12.46 Tooth Fairy 10.0% $11.12 Kintsugi 23.3% $9.34 Deathgaze 23.3% $7.94 Entombed 10.0% $7.00 | $46.25 +165.4% | $17.88 +2.6% | 23.3% | +90.2% | $17.43 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Kintsugi 26.7% $64.80 Deathgaze 26.7% $60.53 Tooth Fairy 6.7% $39.26 Vogue 6.7% $36.23 Entombed 6.7% $17.64 | $290.04 +234.1% | $116.98 +34.7% | 26.7% | +121.1% | $86.81 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 20.0% $64.80 Deathgaze 20.0% $58.69 Tooth Fairy 13.3% $39.26 Vogue 13.3% $36.23 Entombed 13.3% $17.64 | $290.04 +277.2% | $95.12 +23.7% | 20.0% | +128.3% | $76.90 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 16.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 16.7% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 16.7% $11.12 Vogue 16.7% $10.20 Entombed 16.7% $7.00 | $63.86 +302.1% | $19.42 +22.3% | 16.7% | +125.6% | $15.88 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 13.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 13.3% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 20.0% $11.12 Vogue 20.0% $10.20 Entombed 20.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +343.2% | $17.43 +20.9% | 13.3% | +127.0% | $14.41 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $63.86 Kintsugi 10.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 10.0% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 23.3% $11.12 Vogue 23.3% $10.20 Entombed 23.3% $7.00 | $63.86 +390.5% | $15.43 +18.5% | 10.0% | +124.8% | $13.02 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 6.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 6.7% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 26.7% $11.12 Vogue 26.7% $10.20 Entombed 26.7% $7.00 | $63.86 +445.8% | $13.43 +14.8% | 20.0% | +116.3% | $11.70 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 3.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 3.3% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 30.0% $11.12 Vogue 30.0% $10.20 Entombed 30.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +503.0% | $11.43 +8.0% | 40.0% | +93.5% | $10.59 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator  10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.92 Brother  10.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +302.5% | $17.05 +33.8% | 50.0% | +93.9% | $12.74 | — |