The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Restricted → Classified FN ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Kitbash
1x $5.75
Monster Call
2x $8.89
Urban Sovereign
6x $4.75
Galigator
1x $9.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
23.3% $290.04
Kintsugi
23.3% $64.80
Deathgaze
23.3% $61.47
Tooth Fairy
10.0% $39.26
Vogue
10.0% $36.23
Entombed
10.0% $16.12
Max Win
$290.04 (+258.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$106.30 (+31.5%)
Win %
23.3%
Volatility
+126.7%
Cost
$80.86
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $80.86
Ask Price EV $106.30 (+31.5%)
Bid Price EV $87.54 (+8.3%)
Ask Profit $25.44 (+31.5%)
Bid Profit $6.68 (+8.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $18.76 (+23.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$25.44
Bid Slippage Buffer +$6.68
Risk
Win Probability 23.3%
Loss Probability 76.7%
Best Case $290.04 (+258.7%)
Worst Case $16.12 (-80.1%)
Volatility +126.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$209.18
Avg Loss -$30.48
Bottom 5% Outcome $16.12 (-80.1%)
Std Dev $102.48
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 10h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Kitbash
—
Factory New
$5.75 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Monster Call
—
Factory New
$8.89 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Monster Call
—
Factory New
$10.60 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.90 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$7.53 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$9.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$17.66 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 30M 26S //TOTAL COST $80.86 //ASK PRICE EV $106.30 //BID PRICE EV $87.54 //ASK PROFIT $25.44 (+31.5%) //BID PROFIT $6.68 (+8.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 23.3% //BEST CASE $290.04 //VOLATILITY +126.7% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$290.04
+$209.18
+258.7%
$229.11
+$148.25
+183.3%
$60.93
21.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$64.80
-$16.06
-19.9%
$55.11
-$25.75
-31.8%
$9.69
15.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$61.47
-$19.39
-24.0%
$55.38
-$25.48
-31.5%
$6.09
9.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$39.26
-$41.60
-51.4%
$35.68
-$45.18
-55.9%
$3.58
9.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$36.23
-$44.63
-55.2%
$33.42
-$47.44
-58.7%
$2.81
7.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$16.12
-$64.74
-80.1%
$13.88
-$66.98
-82.8%
$2.24
13.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06973,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 290.0445,
"optimistic_value": 279.45,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 229.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:40.031809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06973,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 64.802,
"optimistic_value": 64.2,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 55.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:25.824993Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06973,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 61.465999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 59.66,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 55.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:36:18.187367Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0522975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e390882e9a0",
"realistic_value": 36.2265,
"optimistic_value": 35.81,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Vogue",
"conservative_value": 33.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:40:17.748859Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e390882e9a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0509029,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1e9229953491",
"realistic_value": 39.2605,
"optimistic_value": 39.25,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Tooth Fairy",
"conservative_value": 35.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:39.214255Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1e9229953491.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.034865,
"output_skin_id": "skin-daae504f859c",
"realistic_value": 16.119,
"optimistic_value": 15.3,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Entombed",
"conservative_value": 13.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:23.680248Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-daae504f859c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d0e1a202111dd70adc21554c",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 5.75,
"skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"listing_id": "636838417152674716",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:40:01.817187Z"
},
{
"price": 8.89,
"skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"listing_id": "631208917635134006",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:22.019176Z"
},
{
"price": 10.6,
"skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"listing_id": "517494222854312770",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:22.019176Z"
},
{
"price": 4.75,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "521997988014719718",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:32.394071Z"
},
{
"price": 5.38,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605837398261191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:32.394071Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:32.394071Z"
},
{
"price": 5.9,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "490472790737683059",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:32.394071Z"
},
{
"price": 7.53,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "514116636505408218",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:32.394071Z"
},
{
"price": 9,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "496102237883506139",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:31.203536Z"
},
{
"price": 17.66,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506234592361187964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:37.432665Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:3+collection-set-community-37:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $126.41 Kintsugi 23.3% $23.08 Deathgaze 23.3% $21.75 Tooth Fairy 10.0% $19.65 Vogue 10.0% $16.48 Entombed 10.0% $9.37 | $126.41 +240.7% | $44.51 +20.0% | 23.3% | +122.2% | $37.10 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 23.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 23.3% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 10.0% $11.12 Vogue 10.0% $10.20 Entombed 10.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +212.0% | $23.42 +14.4% | 23.3% | +109.3% | $20.47 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Kintsugi 26.7% $64.80 Deathgaze 26.7% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 6.7% $39.26 Vogue 6.7% $36.23 Entombed 6.7% $17.64 | $290.04 +229.3% | $117.23 +33.1% | 26.7% | +119.2% | $88.08 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 20.0% $64.80 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 13.3% $39.26 Vogue 13.3% $36.23 Entombed 13.3% $16.12 | $290.04 +282.8% | $95.48 +26.0% | 20.0% | +130.1% | $75.76 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 16.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 16.7% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 16.7% $11.12 Vogue 16.7% $10.20 Entombed 16.7% $7.01 | $63.86 +300.9% | $19.42 +21.9% | 16.7% | +125.2% | $15.93 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 13.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 13.3% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 20.0% $11.12 Vogue 20.0% $10.20 Entombed 20.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +340.1% | $17.43 +20.1% | 13.3% | +126.1% | $14.51 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $63.86 Kintsugi 10.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 10.0% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 23.3% $11.12 Vogue 23.3% $10.20 Entombed 23.3% $7.00 | $63.86 +386.7% | $15.43 +17.6% | 10.0% | +123.8% | $13.12 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 6.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 6.7% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 26.7% $11.12 Vogue 26.7% $10.20 Entombed 26.7% $7.00 | $63.86 +438.0% | $13.43 +13.2% | 13.3% | +114.6% | $11.87 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 3.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 3.3% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 30.0% $11.12 Vogue 30.0% $10.20 Entombed 30.0% $7.01 | $63.86 +513.4% | $11.44 +9.9% | 40.0% | +95.1% | $10.41 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  10.0% $31.66 Amberline  10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.92 Brother  10.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +298.7% | $17.04 +32.5% | 50.0% | +93.1% | $12.86 | — |