The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Restricted → Classified BS ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Battle-Scarred StatTrak™
Inputs
Allure
3x $0.83
Amberline
7x $1.91
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
23.3% $46.25
Vogue
10.0% $12.46
Tooth Fairy
10.0% $11.12
Kintsugi
23.3% $9.34
Deathgaze
23.3% $7.94
Entombed
10.0% $7.00
Max Win
$46.25 (+165.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.88 (+2.6%)
Win %
23.3%
Volatility
+90.2%
Cost
$17.43
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $17.43
Ask Price EV $17.88 (+2.6%)
Bid Price EV $16.94 (-2.8%)
Ask Profit $0.45 (+2.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.49 (-2.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.94 (+5.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.45
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.49
Risk
Win Probability 23.3%
Loss Probability 76.7%
Best Case $46.25 (+165.4%)
Worst Case $7.00 (-59.9%)
Volatility +90.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 76.7%
Avg Win +$28.82
Avg Loss -$8.18
Bottom 5% Outcome $7.00 (-59.9%)
Std Dev $15.73
Avg Norm Float 0.5158
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 145h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Allure
—
Well-Worn
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Allure
—
Well-Worn
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Allure
—
Well-Worn
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$1.91 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$1.99 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.09 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.31 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 40S //TOTAL COST $17.43 //ASK PRICE EV $17.88 //BID PRICE EV $16.94 //ASK PROFIT $0.45 (+2.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.49 (-2.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 23.3% //BEST CASE $46.25 //VOLATILITY +90.2% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
23.3%
$46.25
+$28.82
+165.4%
$43.83
+$26.40
+151.5%
$2.42
5.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$12.46
-$4.98
-28.5%
$10.73
-$6.70
-38.4%
$1.72
13.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$11.12
-$6.31
-36.2%
$9.82
-$7.61
-43.7%
$1.30
11.7%
—
NUKE
23.3%
$9.34
-$8.09
-46.4%
$9.31
-$8.12
-46.6%
$0.03
0.3%
—
NUKE
23.3%
$7.94
-$9.49
-54.5%
$7.84
-$9.59
-55.0%
$0.10
1.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$7.00
-$10.43
-59.9%
$6.53
-$10.90
-62.5%
$0.47
6.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.51584,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 46.253,
"optimistic_value": 46.05,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 43.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:48.770872Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.51584,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 9.34,
"optimistic_value": 9.34,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 9.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.600372Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.51584,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 7.9365000000000006,
"optimistic_value": 7.87,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:56.096617Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.38688,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e390882e9a0",
"realistic_value": 12.455,
"optimistic_value": 12,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Vogue",
"conservative_value": 10.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:31.901246Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e390882e9a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.3765632,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1e9229953491",
"realistic_value": 11.1155,
"optimistic_value": 11,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Tooth Fairy",
"conservative_value": 9.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:51.460417Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1e9229953491.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.25792,
"output_skin_id": "skin-daae504f859c",
"realistic_value": 6.998,
"optimistic_value": 6.9,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Entombed",
"conservative_value": 6.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:53.761918Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-daae504f859c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d0e1a202111dd70adc21554c",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"listing_id": "526501587737907665",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:39.403779Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"listing_id": "501731789730787541",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:39.403779Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"listing_id": "512990623222345619",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:39.403779Z"
},
{
"price": 1.91,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "490472790737643639",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:18.132481Z"
},
{
"price": 1.99,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "529879287551401776",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:18.132481Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361289452694821",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:18.132481Z"
},
{
"price": 2.09,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "514116688949678190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:18.132481Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "490472738292168531",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:18.132481Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "525375635593980187",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:55.427620Z"
},
{
"price": 2.31,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "505109489448722396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:55.427620Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:3+collection-set-community-37:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 23.3% $64.80 Deathgaze 23.3% $58.69 Tooth Fairy 10.0% $39.26 Vogue 10.0% $36.23 Entombed 10.0% $17.64 | $290.04 +252.3% | $105.80 +28.5% | 23.3% | +124.7% | $82.34 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 23.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 23.3% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 10.0% $11.12 Vogue 10.0% $10.20 Entombed 10.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +231.9% | $23.42 +21.7% | 23.3% | +116.2% | $19.24 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $126.41 Kintsugi 23.3% $23.08 Deathgaze 23.3% $21.31 Tooth Fairy 10.0% $19.65 Vogue 10.0% $17.87 Entombed 10.0% $9.37 | $126.41 +222.5% | $44.54 +13.6% | 23.3% | +115.6% | $39.20 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Kintsugi 26.7% $64.80 Deathgaze 26.7% $60.53 Tooth Fairy 6.7% $39.26 Vogue 6.7% $36.23 Entombed 6.7% $17.64 | $290.04 +234.1% | $116.98 +34.7% | 26.7% | +121.1% | $86.81 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 20.0% $64.80 Deathgaze 20.0% $58.69 Tooth Fairy 13.3% $39.26 Vogue 13.3% $36.23 Entombed 13.3% $17.64 | $290.04 +277.2% | $95.12 +23.7% | 20.0% | +128.3% | $76.90 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 16.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 16.7% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 16.7% $11.12 Vogue 16.7% $10.20 Entombed 16.7% $7.00 | $63.86 +302.1% | $19.42 +22.3% | 16.7% | +125.6% | $15.88 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 13.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 13.3% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 20.0% $11.12 Vogue 20.0% $10.20 Entombed 20.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +343.2% | $17.43 +20.9% | 13.3% | +127.0% | $14.41 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $63.86 Kintsugi 10.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 10.0% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 23.3% $11.12 Vogue 23.3% $10.20 Entombed 23.3% $7.00 | $63.86 +390.5% | $15.43 +18.5% | 10.0% | +124.8% | $13.02 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 6.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 6.7% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 26.7% $11.12 Vogue 26.7% $10.20 Entombed 26.7% $7.00 | $63.86 +445.8% | $13.43 +14.8% | 20.0% | +116.3% | $11.70 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 3.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 3.3% $11.72 Tooth Fairy 30.0% $11.12 Vogue 30.0% $10.20 Entombed 30.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +503.0% | $11.43 +8.0% | 40.0% | +93.5% | $10.59 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator  10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign  10.0% $13.92 Brother  10.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +302.5% | $17.05 +33.8% | 50.0% | +93.9% | $12.74 | — |