The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Cold Fusion
1x $0.07
Bulkhead
1x $0.11
Leafhopper
3x $0.06
Marsh
2x $0.07
Tiger Tear
2x $0.12
Acid Dart
1x $0.13
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
16.0% $4.61
Tropical Breeze
16.0% $1.82
Acheron
5.0% $1.03
Facility Negative
5.0% $0.48
Poplar Thicket
16.0% $0.43
Gold Leaf
16.0% $0.42
Max Win
$4.61 (+347.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.35 (+30.6%)
Win %
32.0%
Volatility
+146.8%
Cost
$1.03
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.03
Ask Price EV $1.35 (+30.6%)
Bid Price EV $1.17 (+13.1%)
Ask Profit $0.32 (+30.6%)
Bid Profit $0.14 (+13.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.18 (+17.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.32
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.14
Risk
Win Probability 32.0%
Loss Probability 68.0%
Best Case $4.61 (+347.6%)
Worst Case $0.39 (-61.7%)
Volatility +146.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 63.0%
Avg Win +$2.19
Avg Loss -$0.61
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.39 (-61.7%)
Std Dev $1.51
Avg Norm Float 0.1999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 121h 26m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Bulkhead
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 14S //TOTAL COST $1.03 //ASK PRICE EV $1.35 //BID PRICE EV $1.17 //ASK PROFIT $0.32 (+30.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.14 (+13.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 32.0% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +146.8% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$4.61
+$3.58
+347.6%
$3.81
+$2.78
+269.9%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
16.0%
$1.82
+$0.79
+76.8%
$1.70
+$0.67
+65.0%
$0.12
6.6%
—
PAPER WIN
5.0%
$1.03
+$0.00
+0.0%
$0.87
-$0.16
-15.5%
$0.16
15.5%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$0.48
-$0.55
-53.1%
$0.38
-$0.65
-63.1%
$0.10
21.4%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.43
-$0.60
-58.3%
$0.41
-$0.62
-60.2%
$0.02
4.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.42
-$0.61
-58.9%
$0.38
-$0.65
-63.1%
$0.04
10.3%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$0.42
-$0.61
-59.2%
$0.39
-$0.64
-62.1%
$0.03
7.1%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$0.40
-$0.63
-61.2%
$0.38
-$0.65
-63.1%
$0.02
5.0%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.39
-$0.64
-61.7%
$0.35
-$0.68
-66.0%
$0.04
11.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1499475,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1359524,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.43,
"optimistic_value": 0.43,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:30.128809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.119958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 0.4235,
"optimistic_value": 0.42,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:38.769369Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1099615,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 1.821,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.839903Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.119958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 0.394,
"optimistic_value": 0.38,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 0.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:53.545345Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.16594189999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 1.03,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T08:47:23.924515Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.099965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 0.42,
"optimistic_value": 0.42,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 0.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:57.032454Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.099965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 0.4,
"optimistic_value": 0.4,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:00.184118Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.099965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 0.4835,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:34:12.043704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_cecefb79b8af091ba88b643e",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "496102290328404239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:48.302754Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-09caec0af065",
"listing_id": "508487189340873710",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Bulkhead (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Bulkhead",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-09caec0af065.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:10:07.968845Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "520872088107274080",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:46.543873Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "527627487624253760",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:10:01.348937Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "502856892559649080",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:10:01.348937Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "519746135814806588",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:46.543873Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "517494388633861186",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:44.555841Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "517494388634260894",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:46.686245Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "512990623225420919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:44.555841Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "503983423971210091",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:10:17.443212Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:2+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $3.67 Acheron 5.0% $2.51 Exchanger 5.0% $2.42 Co-Processor 5.0% $2.23 Facility Negative 5.0% $2.23 | $4.61 +134.0% | $2.34 +18.5% | 52.0% | +53.6% | $1.97 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Acheron 12.5% $2.52 Exchanger 12.5% $2.42 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.23 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.23 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 | $4.61 +220.1% | $1.94 +35.0% | 70.0% | +62.2% | $1.44 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Acheron 2.5% $1.03 Facility Negative 2.5% $0.48 Poplar Thicket 18.0% $0.42 Gold Leaf 18.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +330.8% | $1.44 +34.5% | 36.0% | +139.7% | $1.07 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Acheron 10.0% $2.51 Exchanger 10.0% $2.42 Co-Processor 10.0% $2.23 Facility Negative 10.0% $2.23 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 | $4.61 +231.7% | $1.86 +33.8% | 64.0% | +72.2% | $1.39 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Acheron 7.5% $1.03 Facility Negative 7.5% $0.48 Poplar Thicket 14.0% $0.42 Gold Leaf 14.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +365.7% | $1.25 +26.1% | 35.5% | +138.0% | $0.99 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Nuclear Garden  6.7% $8.25 Sheet Lightning  40.0% $5.26 Random Access  6.7% $4.33 Glockingbird  40.0% $3.88 Core Breach  6.7% $1.47 | $8.25 +103.8% | $4.60 +13.5% | 53.3% | +34.3% | $4.05 | — |