The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Cold Fusion
2x $0.25
Garter-9
1x $0.27
Marsh
4x $0.34
Mustard Gas
2x $0.35
Acid Dart
1x $0.41
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
5.0% $17.37
Wintergreen
16.0% $10.66
Tropical Breeze
16.0% $3.67
Exchanger
5.0% $2.42
Co-Processor
5.0% $2.23
Facility Negative
5.0% $2.23
Max Win
$17.37 (+218.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.22 (-22.7%)
Win %
21.0%
Volatility
+80.8%
Cost
$5.46
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.46
Ask Price EV $4.22 (-22.7%)
Bid Price EV $4.02 (-26.4%)
Ask Profit $-1.24 (-22.7%)
Bid Profit $-1.44 (-26.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.21 (+3.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.24
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.44
Risk
Win Probability 21.0%
Loss Probability 79.0%
Best Case $17.37 (+218.1%)
Worst Case $1.45 (-73.5%)
Volatility +80.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 79.0%
Avg Win +$6.80
Avg Loss -$3.37
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.45 (-73.5%)
Std Dev $4.41
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 147h 16m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$1.20 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 17S //TOTAL COST $5.46 //ASK PRICE EV $4.22 //BID PRICE EV $4.02 //ASK PROFIT $-1.24 (-22.7%) //BID PROFIT $-1.44 (-26.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 21.0% //BEST CASE $17.37 //VOLATILITY +80.8% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$17.37
+$11.91
+218.1%
$16.98
+$11.52
+211.0%
$0.39
2.2%
—
BIG WIN
16.0%
$10.66
+$5.20
+95.2%
$9.81
+$4.35
+79.7%
$0.85
8.0%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$3.67
-$1.79
-32.8%
$3.64
-$1.82
-33.3%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$2.42
-$3.04
-55.8%
$2.36
-$3.10
-56.8%
$0.06
2.3%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$2.23
-$3.23
-59.1%
$2.07
-$3.39
-62.1%
$0.16
7.3%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$2.23
-$3.23
-59.2%
$2.16
-$3.30
-60.4%
$0.07
3.0%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.53
-$3.93
-71.9%
$1.52
-$3.94
-72.2%
$0.01
0.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.51
-$3.95
-72.4%
$1.49
-$3.97
-72.7%
$0.02
1.1%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.45
-$4.01
-73.5%
$1.28
-$4.18
-76.6%
$0.17
11.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.052485000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0475864,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.5335,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:31.116380Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.507,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:17.047346Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.038489,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.4455,
"optimistic_value": 1.33,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:13:54.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.0580834,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 17.3705,
"optimistic_value": 17.36,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 16.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:46.180805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.03499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 2.234,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 2.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:17.585146Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.03499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 2.4155,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 2.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:16.552698Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.03499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 2.2270000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:22:54.526092Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_cecefb79b8af091ba88b643e",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "500605889840729975",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:20.297659Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "500605837398877331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:20.297659Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "511864888985873745",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:05:11.517801Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "501731789730861413",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:15.764403Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "523123888072931734",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:32.229765Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "525375688037451211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:15.764403Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "652601015910513612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:40.686209Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:32.229765Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "490472625091045239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:15.764403Z"
},
{
"price": 1.2,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "490472625090884103",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:15.764403Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:2+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Acheron 5.0% $1.03 Facility Negative 5.0% $0.48 Poplar Thicket 16.0% $0.43 Gold Leaf 16.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +347.6% | $1.35 +30.6% | 32.0% | +139.1% | $1.03 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $3.67 Acheron 5.0% $2.51 Exchanger 5.0% $2.42 Co-Processor 5.0% $2.23 Facility Negative 5.0% $2.23 | $4.61 +134.0% | $2.34 +18.5% | 52.0% | +53.6% | $1.97 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Acheron 12.5% $2.52 Exchanger 12.5% $2.42 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.23 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.23 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 | $4.61 +220.1% | $1.94 +35.0% | 70.0% | +62.2% | $1.44 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Acheron 2.5% $1.03 Facility Negative 2.5% $0.48 Poplar Thicket 18.0% $0.42 Gold Leaf 18.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +330.8% | $1.44 +34.5% | 36.0% | +139.7% | $1.07 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Acheron 10.0% $2.51 Exchanger 10.0% $2.42 Co-Processor 10.0% $2.23 Facility Negative 10.0% $2.23 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 | $4.61 +231.7% | $1.86 +33.8% | 64.0% | +72.2% | $1.39 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Acheron 7.5% $1.03 Facility Negative 7.5% $0.48 Poplar Thicket 14.0% $0.42 Gold Leaf 14.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +365.7% | $1.25 +26.1% | 35.5% | +138.0% | $0.99 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Nuclear Garden  6.7% $8.25 Sheet Lightning  40.0% $5.26 Random Access  6.7% $4.33 Glockingbird  40.0% $3.88 Core Breach  6.7% $1.47 | $8.25 +103.8% | $4.60 +13.5% | 53.3% | +34.3% | $4.05 | — |