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The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Battle-Scarred +26.5%Factory New +1.5%Well-Worn +4.5%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Sky Mandala
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
2x $0.40
Earth Mandala
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
2x $0.46
Warm Blooded
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
4x $0.46
Late Night Transit
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
1x $0.51
Green Line
Glock-18 | Green Line
1x $0.58
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
40.0% $7.65
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
6.7% $7.13
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
6.7% $5.48
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
6.7% $4.17
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
40.0% $2.46
Max Win
$7.65 (+54.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.16 (+4.5%)
Win %
53.3%
Volatility
+48.4%
Cost
$4.94
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGE
Total Cost $4.94
Ask Price EV $5.16 (+4.5%)
Bid Price EV $4.56 (-7.7%)
Ask Profit $0.22 (+4.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.38 (-7.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.60 (+12.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.22
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.38
Risk
Win Probability 53.3%
Loss Probability 46.7%
Best Case $7.65 (+54.9%)
Worst Case $2.46 (-50.2%)
Volatility +48.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$2.37
Avg Loss -$2.24
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.46 (-50.2%)
Std Dev $2.39
Avg Norm Float 0.4496
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 21h 34m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 47S //TOTAL COST $4.94 //ASK PRICE EV $5.16 //BID PRICE EV $4.56 //ASK PROFIT $0.22 (+4.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.38 (-7.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 53.3% //BEST CASE $7.65 //VOLATILITY +48.4% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.31475499999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 7.65,
      "optimistic_value": 7.51,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 6.58,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:13:33.742714Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.31475499999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.459,
      "optimistic_value": 2.41,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 2.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:36.302840Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.31475499999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 7.1295,
      "optimistic_value": 7.07,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 6.4,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.48267099999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 4.174,
      "optimistic_value": 4.16,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 4.11,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:43.887741Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.44965,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 5.481,
      "optimistic_value": 5.46,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 4.88,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:43:53.395739Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_cc74a0ea97a449fedcfae54b",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "508487189339587610",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:41.679068Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.46,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "659356415309640970",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:02.985493Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.46,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "499479989896979941",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:05.450947Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "502857689862732112",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:08.924940Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472790737290515",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:05.450947Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "500605889841164747",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:05.450947Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "517494336189226390",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:02.985493Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.54,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "497228137697395481",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:05.450947Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "503983589619599383",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:17.255681Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.58,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "514116688950228990",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:43.952384Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8+collection-set-train-2025:2"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
40.0% $9.85
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
6.7% $5.85
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
6.7% $4.93
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
6.7% $4.17
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
40.0% $2.17
$9.85
+114.6%
$5.81
+26.5%
53.3%+75.6%$4.59—
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
6.7% $64.86
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
6.7% $63.47
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
6.7% $44.71
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
40.0% $26.82
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
40.0% $24.63
$64.86
+105.1%
$32.12
+1.5%
20.0%+42.6%$31.63—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
35.0% $9.85
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
10.0% $5.85
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
10.0% $4.93
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
10.0% $4.17
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
35.0% $2.17
$9.85
+111.4%
$5.70
+22.4%
55.0%+70.1%$4.66—
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
13.3% $64.86
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
13.3% $44.71
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
30.0% $26.82
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
30.0% $24.63
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
13.3% $22.82
$64.86
+138.6%
$33.09
+21.7%
26.7%+52.0%$27.18—
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
16.7% $64.86
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
16.7% $44.71
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
25.0% $26.82
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
25.0% $24.63
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
16.7% $22.82
$64.86
+123.8%
$34.93
+20.5%
33.3%+52.6%$28.98—
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
20.0% $64.86
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
20.0% $44.71
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
20.0% $26.82
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
20.0% $24.63
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
20.0% $22.82
$64.86
+109.4%
$36.77
+18.7%
40.0%+51.9%$30.97—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
40.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
40.0% $294.44
Party Animal
M4A1-S | Party Animal
20.0% $158.85
$597.10
+69.3%
$388.39
+10.1%
40.0%+50.3%$352.60—
FS

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