The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items

Battle-Scarred +27.1%Factory New -0.4%Minimal Wear +15.2%Well-Worn -4.3%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred

Inputs

Sky Mandala

3x $0.35

Fraise Crane

1x $0.37

Warm Blooded

3x $0.47

Earth Mandala

1x $0.52

Late Night Transit

1x $0.51

Green Line

1x $0.59

↓

Possible Outputs

Exothermic

40.0% $9.85

Derailment

6.7% $5.85

Charged Up

6.7% $4.93

Whiteout

6.7% $4.17

Sleeping Potion

40.0% $2.15

Max Win

$9.85 (+116.0%)

EV (ROI %)

$5.80 (+27.1%)

Win %

53.3%

Volatility

+76.4%

Cost

$4.56

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $4.56

Ask Price EV $5.80 (+27.1%)

Bid Price EV $4.30 (-5.7%)

Ask Profit $1.24 (+27.1%)

Bid Profit $-0.26 (-5.7%)

Liquidity Gap $1.49 (+32.7%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.24

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.26

Risk

Win Probability 53.3%

Loss Probability 46.7%

Best Case $9.85 (+116.0%)

Worst Case $2.15 (-52.9%)

Volatility +76.4%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%

Avg Win +$4.18

Avg Loss -$2.13

Bottom 5% Outcome $2.15 (-52.9%)

Std Dev $3.48

Avg Norm Float 0.5677

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 22m

Oldest Output Price 143h 34m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.35 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.47 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.49 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.50 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.52 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.51 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Well-Worn

$0.59 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 58M 15S //TOTAL COST $4.56 //ASK PRICE EV $5.80 //BID PRICE EV $4.30 //ASK PROFIT $1.24 (+27.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.26 (-5.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 53.3% //BEST CASE $9.85 //VOLATILITY +76.4% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.397418,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 9.8505,
      "optimistic_value": 9.77,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 6.64,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:35.960617Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.397418,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.1455,
      "optimistic_value": 2.1,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 1.99,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:55.782048Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.397418,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 5.8545,
      "optimistic_value": 5.76,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 4.9,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:37.199726Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.5936756000000001,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 4.1705000000000005,
      "optimistic_value": 4.16,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 4.1,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:51.813887Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.56774,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 4.9254999999999995,
      "optimistic_value": 4.88,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 3.75,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T00:12:33.464100Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_cc74a0ea97a449fedcfae54b",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "493850490550207360",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:12.826284Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "507361289453258221",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:12.826284Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "501731789729082221",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:20.939582Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "508487189339587610",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:12.826284Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.47,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "520872088106943564",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:28.988837Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472790737290515",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:28.988837Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "500605889841164747",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:28.988837Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "517494336189226390",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:38.160374Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "503983589619599383",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:40.961770Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.59,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "503983589619670519",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:10.566185Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8+collection-set-train-2025:2"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $44.71 Exothermic 40.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $24.63 Charged Up 6.7% $22.86	$64.86 +154.3%	$29.40 +15.2%	53.3%	+41.9%	$25.51	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Derailment 3.3% $5.85 Charged Up 3.3% $4.93 Whiteout 3.3% $4.17 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.15	$9.85 +118.9%	$5.90 +31.0%	51.7%	+81.6%	$4.50	—
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Derailment 10.0% $5.85 Charged Up 10.0% $4.93 Whiteout 10.0% $4.17 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.15	$9.85 +117.9%	$5.69 +26.0%	55.0%	+72.5%	$4.52	—
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $44.71 Exothermic 30.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Charged Up 13.3% $22.86	$64.86 +137.6%	$33.08 +21.2%	26.7%	+51.8%	$27.30	—
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.71 Exothermic 25.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $24.63 Charged Up 16.7% $22.86	$64.86 +121.5%	$34.93 +19.2%	33.3%	+52.1%	$29.29	—
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $44.71 Exothermic 20.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Charged Up 20.0% $22.86	$64.86 +108.6%	$36.77 +18.3%	40.0%	+51.7%	$31.09	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 40.0% $294.44 Party Animal 20.0% $158.85	$597.10 +70.4%	$388.39 +10.8%	40.0%	+50.6%	$350.44	—