The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items

Battle-Scarred +26.5%Factory New +1.5%Well-Worn +4.5%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New

Inputs

Earth Mandala

3x $2.30

Warm Blooded

5x $2.36

Late Night Transit

1x $3.01

2A2F

1x $4.19

↓

Possible Outputs

Whiteout

6.7% $64.86

Charged Up

6.7% $63.47

Derailment

6.7% $44.71

Exothermic

40.0% $26.82

Sleeping Potion

40.0% $24.63

Max Win

$64.86 (+105.1%)

EV (ROI %)

$32.12 (+1.5%)

Win %

20.0%

Volatility

+42.6%

Cost

$31.63

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $31.63

Ask Price EV $32.12 (+1.5%)

Bid Price EV $30.18 (-4.6%)

Ask Profit $0.49 (+1.5%)

Bid Profit $-1.45 (-4.6%)

Liquidity Gap $1.94 (+6.1%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.49

Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.45

Risk

Win Probability 20.0%

Loss Probability 80.0%

Best Case $64.86 (+105.1%)

Worst Case $24.63 (-22.1%)

Volatility +42.6%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%

Avg Win +$26.05

Avg Loss -$5.91

Bottom 5% Outcome $24.63 (-22.1%)

Std Dev $13.46

Avg Norm Float 0.0699

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 21m

Oldest Output Price 144h 35m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Factory New

$2.30 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Factory New

$2.36 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.36 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Factory New

$2.47 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.70 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$3.07 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$4.02 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$5.15 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

—

Minimal Wear

$3.01 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Minimal Wear

$4.19 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 48S //TOTAL COST $31.63 //ASK PRICE EV $32.12 //BID PRICE EV $30.18 //ASK PROFIT $0.49 (+1.5%) //BID PROFIT $-1.45 (-4.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +42.6% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.048951,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 26.8185,
      "optimistic_value": 26.71,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 25.99,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:06.957093Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.048951,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 24.63,
      "optimistic_value": 24.56,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 22.28,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.048951,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 44.7135,
      "optimistic_value": 44.64,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 43.04,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:55:16.448013Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.12573420000000002,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 64.8635,
      "optimistic_value": 64.79,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 61.61,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.06993,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 63.472,
      "optimistic_value": 62.38,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 58.44,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:05:40.142681Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_cc74a0ea97a449fedcfae54b",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 2.3,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "511864888985191545",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.818949Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "516368488725166478",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.818949Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "517494388633380694",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.353730Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.47,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "496102290329375051",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.818949Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472625089366055",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.353730Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.07,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "505109323870001060",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.353730Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.02,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "526500790836642953",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.353730Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.15,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "521997822478339278",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.353730Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.01,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "511864888984827585",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:57:32.797430Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "642467916639686441",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:13:01.646140Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8+collection-set-train-2025:2"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Derailment 6.7% $5.85 Charged Up 6.7% $4.93 Whiteout 6.7% $4.17 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.17	$9.85 +114.6%	$5.81 +26.5%	53.3%	+75.6%	$4.59	—
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Exothermic 40.0% $7.65 Derailment 6.7% $7.13 Charged Up 6.7% $5.48 Whiteout 6.7% $4.17 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.46	$7.65 +54.9%	$5.16 +4.5%	53.3%	+48.4%	$4.94	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Derailment 10.0% $5.85 Charged Up 10.0% $4.93 Whiteout 10.0% $4.17 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.17	$9.85 +111.4%	$5.70 +22.4%	55.0%	+70.1%	$4.66	—
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $44.71 Exothermic 30.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Charged Up 13.3% $22.82	$64.86 +138.6%	$33.09 +21.7%	26.7%	+52.0%	$27.18	—
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.71 Exothermic 25.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $24.63 Charged Up 16.7% $22.82	$64.86 +123.8%	$34.93 +20.5%	33.3%	+52.6%	$28.98	—
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $44.71 Exothermic 20.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Charged Up 20.0% $22.82	$64.86 +109.4%	$36.77 +18.7%	40.0%	+51.9%	$30.97	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 40.0% $294.44 Party Animal 20.0% $158.85	$597.10 +69.3%	$388.39 +10.1%	40.0%	+50.3%	$352.60	—