The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Picnic
2x $0.18
Basket Halftone
3x $0.11
Steel Work
2x $0.13
Citric Acid
1x $0.31
Sedimentary
1x $0.34
Grey Ghost
1x $0.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
5.0% $6.21
Coral Bloom
13.3% $4.96
Sky Mandala
5.0% $3.50
Red Tide
13.3% $3.32
Earth Mandala
5.0% $2.33
Arsenic Spill
13.3% $2.32
Max Win
$6.21 (+141.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.88 (+12.2%)
Win %
36.7%
Volatility
+50.1%
Cost
$2.57
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.57
Ask Price EV $2.88 (+12.2%)
Bid Price EV $2.82 (+9.9%)
Ask Profit $0.31 (+12.2%)
Bid Profit $0.25 (+9.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+2.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.31
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.25
Risk
Win Probability 36.7%
Loss Probability 63.3%
Best Case $6.21 (+141.6%)
Worst Case $1.77 (-31.2%)
Volatility +50.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 26.7%
Avg Win +$1.76
Avg Loss -$0.53
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.77 (-31.2%)
Std Dev $1.29
Avg Norm Float 0.0927
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 104h 31m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sedimentary
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 40S //TOTAL COST $2.57 //ASK PRICE EV $2.88 //BID PRICE EV $2.82 //ASK PROFIT $0.31 (+12.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.25 (+9.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 36.7% //BEST CASE $6.21 //VOLATILITY +50.1% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$6.21
+$3.64
+141.6%
$6.18
+$3.61
+140.5%
$0.03
0.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$4.96
+$2.39
+93.0%
$4.92
+$2.35
+91.4%
$0.04
0.8%
—
WIN
5.0%
$3.50
+$0.93
+36.3%
$3.45
+$0.88
+34.2%
$0.05
1.5%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$3.32
+$0.75
+29.1%
$3.27
+$0.70
+27.2%
$0.05
1.4%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$2.33
-$0.24
-9.4%
$2.23
-$0.34
-13.2%
$0.10
4.2%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$2.32
-$0.25
-9.7%
$2.09
-$0.48
-18.7%
$0.23
9.9%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$2.27
-$0.30
-11.7%
$2.25
-$0.32
-12.5%
$0.02
0.9%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$2.11
-$0.46
-17.8%
$2.09
-$0.48
-18.7%
$0.02
1.1%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$1.78
-$0.79
-30.6%
$1.77
-$0.80
-31.1%
$0.01
0.8%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$1.77
-$0.80
-31.2%
$1.75
-$0.82
-31.9%
$0.02
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.04652676509,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.32,
"optimistic_value": 2.32,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:25.005971Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06979010128999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.961,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T15:33:54.664938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.046345,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.767,
"optimistic_value": 1.76,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:50.051528Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.055614,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.7835,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:49.693536Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0695175,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.317,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:39:00.954146Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06288376939,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.1135,
"optimistic_value": 2.11,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:42:21.675050Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.060248499999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:27.368062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.064883,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.5035,
"optimistic_value": 3.5,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:58.289082Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.064883,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.27,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.0611754,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.3275,
"optimistic_value": 2.31,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:52.986960Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ca49a6aecbfef755cdb48c0c",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "492724590626103273",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:49.144253Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "505109489448518132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:21.016901Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176103663",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:38.805022Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "524249787960621051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:46:43.900967Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "518620288313212132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:46:43.900967Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "529879287550634112",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.669419Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "519746188257916964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.669419Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "511864888984769697",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:57.741687Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-7efe4d3e7779",
"listing_id": "519746188258260332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Sedimentary",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7efe4d3e7779.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:51:11.599083Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "507361123689186349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:42:04.752496Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 5.0% $2.60 Sky Mandala 5.0% $1.79 Coral Bloom 13.3% $1.36 Earth Mandala 5.0% $1.10 Warm Blooded 5.0% $1.07 Red Tide 13.3% $1.04 | $2.60 +195.9% | $1.11 +26.1% | 73.3% | +43.0% | $0.88 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 20.0% $2.60 Sky Mandala 20.0% $1.79 Coral Bloom 3.3% $1.36 Earth Mandala 20.0% $1.10 Warm Blooded 20.0% $1.07 Red Tide 3.3% $1.04 | $2.60 +128.4% | $1.51 +32.3% | 43.3% | +50.8% | $1.14 | — |