The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Picnic
2x $0.06
Basket Halftone
4x $0.06
Grey Ghost
1x $0.07
Steel Work
2x $0.07
O-Ranger
1x $0.08
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
5.0% $2.60
Sky Mandala
5.0% $1.73
Coral Bloom
13.3% $1.36
Earth Mandala
5.0% $1.10
Warm Blooded
5.0% $1.07
Red Tide
13.3% $1.04
Max Win
$2.60 (+202.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.12 (+29.9%)
Win %
73.3%
Volatility
+48.0%
Cost
$0.86
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $0.86
Ask Price EV $1.12 (+29.9%)
Bid Price EV $1.01 (+17.2%)
Ask Profit $0.26 (+29.9%)
Bid Profit $0.15 (+17.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.11 (+12.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.26
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.15
Risk
Win Probability 73.3%
Loss Probability 26.7%
Best Case $2.60 (+202.7%)
Worst Case $0.79 (-8.4%)
Volatility +48.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$0.37
Avg Loss -$0.06
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.79 (-8.4%)
Std Dev $0.41
Avg Norm Float 0.1981
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 112h 12m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | O-Ranger
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 05S //TOTAL COST $0.86 //ASK PRICE EV $1.12 //BID PRICE EV $1.01 //ASK PROFIT $0.26 (+29.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.15 (+17.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 73.3% //BEST CASE $2.60 //VOLATILITY +48.0% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$2.60
+$1.74
+202.7%
$2.37
+$1.51
+175.6%
$0.23
9.0%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$1.73
+$0.87
+100.6%
$1.56
+$0.70
+81.4%
$0.17
9.6%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$1.36
+$0.50
+57.6%
$1.15
+$0.29
+33.7%
$0.21
15.2%
—
WIN
5.0%
$1.10
+$0.24
+28.0%
$1.01
+$0.15
+17.4%
$0.09
8.2%
—
WIN
5.0%
$1.07
+$0.21
+24.4%
$1.05
+$0.19
+22.1%
$0.02
1.9%
—
WIN
13.3%
$1.04
+$0.18
+21.3%
$1.01
+$0.15
+17.4%
$0.03
3.2%
—
WIN
13.3%
$1.01
+$0.14
+16.9%
$0.89
+$0.03
+3.5%
$0.11
11.4%
—
PAPER WIN
13.3%
$0.94
+$0.08
+9.7%
$0.82
-$0.04
-4.7%
$0.12
13.1%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$0.80
-$0.06
-6.6%
$0.70
-$0.16
-18.6%
$0.10
12.9%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$0.79
-$0.07
-8.4%
$0.74
-$0.12
-14.0%
$0.05
6.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.09941839566,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 1.005,
"optimistic_value": 0.97,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:27.049249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.14912749446,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.09903,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 0.8035,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:03:30.497008Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.118836,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.788,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:03:11.348145Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.148545,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.0435,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:01:04.302546Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.13437004386,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.9434999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:36.434413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.12873900000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 2.6035,
"optimistic_value": 2.6,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 2.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:25.041413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.138642,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 1.725,
"optimistic_value": 1.69,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.56,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:45:46.646309Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.138642,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 1.07,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 1.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:14.156062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.13071960000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 1.1005,
"optimistic_value": 1.09,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:08.206731Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ca49a6aecbfef755cdb48c0c",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "506235389469345864",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:55:17.938115Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "514116636506573322",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:55:17.938115Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503982792732398611",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:05:59.013997Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "506234592353884932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:55:47.900551Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "630083017733692770",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:48:42.096983Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-41452c191f44",
"listing_id": "518619491401898812",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41452c191f44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:06:15.385530Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "497228190141276005",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:13.496694Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176103663",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:13.496694Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "636838345232107636",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:13.496694Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "524249787960621051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:11.112097Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 5.0% $6.21 Coral Bloom 13.3% $4.96 Sky Mandala 5.0% $3.51 Red Tide 13.3% $3.32 Earth Mandala 5.0% $2.33 Arsenic Spill 13.3% $2.32 | $6.21 +139.8% | $2.89 +11.4% | 36.7% | +42.8% | $2.59 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 22.5% $6.21 Sky Mandala 22.5% $3.51 Earth Mandala 22.5% $2.33 Arsenic Spill 1.7% $2.32 Warm Blooded 22.5% $2.28 Blush Pour 1.7% $2.11 | $6.21 +135.2% | $3.40 +28.7% | 45.0% | +58.2% | $2.64 | — |