The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Picnic
1x $0.40
XoooM
1x $1.19
Steel Work
2x $0.14
Basket Halftone
2x $0.28
Citric Acid
2x $0.31
Sedimentary
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
5.0% $6.21
Coral Bloom
13.3% $4.96
Sky Mandala
5.0% $3.50
Red Tide
13.3% $3.32
Earth Mandala
5.0% $2.33
Arsenic Spill
13.3% $2.32
Max Win
$6.21 (+19.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.88 (-44.3%)
Win %
5.0%
Volatility
+24.8%
Cost
$5.18
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.18
Ask Price EV $2.88 (-44.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.82 (-45.5%)
Ask Profit $-2.30 (-44.3%)
Bid Profit $-2.36 (-45.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+1.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.30
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.36
Risk
Win Probability 5.0%
Loss Probability 95.0%
Best Case $6.21 (+19.9%)
Worst Case $1.77 (-65.9%)
Volatility +24.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 81.7%
Avg Win +$1.03
Avg Loss -$2.47
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.77 (-65.9%)
Std Dev $1.29
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 104h 31m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sedimentary
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 42S //TOTAL COST $5.18 //ASK PRICE EV $2.88 //BID PRICE EV $2.82 //ASK PROFIT $-2.30 (-44.3%) //BID PROFIT $-2.36 (-45.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 5.0% //BEST CASE $6.21 //VOLATILITY +24.8% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
5.0%
$6.21
+$1.03
+19.9%
$6.18
+$1.00
+19.3%
$0.03
0.5%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$4.96
-$0.22
-4.2%
$4.92
-$0.26
-5.0%
$0.04
0.8%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$3.50
-$1.68
-32.4%
$3.45
-$1.73
-33.4%
$0.05
1.5%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$3.32
-$1.86
-36.0%
$3.27
-$1.91
-36.9%
$0.05
1.4%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$2.33
-$2.85
-55.1%
$2.23
-$2.95
-56.9%
$0.10
4.2%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$2.32
-$2.86
-55.2%
$2.09
-$3.09
-59.7%
$0.23
9.9%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$2.27
-$2.91
-56.2%
$2.25
-$2.93
-56.6%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$2.11
-$3.07
-59.2%
$2.09
-$3.09
-59.7%
$0.02
1.1%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$1.78
-$3.40
-65.6%
$1.77
-$3.41
-65.8%
$0.01
0.8%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$1.77
-$3.41
-65.9%
$1.75
-$3.43
-66.2%
$0.02
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.035006760139999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.32,
"optimistic_value": 2.32,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:25.005971Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.052510105339999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.961,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T15:33:54.664938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.03487,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.767,
"optimistic_value": 1.76,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:50.051528Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041844,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.7835,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:49.693536Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.052305,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.317,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:39:00.954146Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.047313777939999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.1135,
"optimistic_value": 2.11,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:42:21.675050Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.045330999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:27.368062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.04881799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.5035,
"optimistic_value": 3.5,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:58.289082Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.04881799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.27,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.0460284,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.3275,
"optimistic_value": 2.31,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:52.986960Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ca49a6aecbfef755cdb48c0c",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "505109489448518132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:21.016901Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620235867474188",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:42.999968Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "518620288313212132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:46:43.900967Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "529879287550634112",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.669419Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "519746188257916964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.669419Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "511864888984769697",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:57.741687Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-7efe4d3e7779",
"listing_id": "519746188258260332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Sedimentary",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7efe4d3e7779.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:51:11.599083Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "507361123689186349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:42:04.752496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "503983589618643007",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:11.393076Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "496101493267636415",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:57.741687Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 5.0% $2.60 Sky Mandala 5.0% $1.79 Coral Bloom 13.3% $1.36 Earth Mandala 5.0% $1.10 Warm Blooded 5.0% $1.07 Red Tide 13.3% $1.04 | $2.60 +195.9% | $1.11 +26.1% | 73.3% | +43.0% | $0.88 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 5.0% $6.21 Coral Bloom 13.3% $4.96 Sky Mandala 5.0% $3.50 Red Tide 13.3% $3.32 Earth Mandala 5.0% $2.33 Arsenic Spill 13.3% $2.32 | $6.21 +141.6% | $2.88 +12.2% | 36.7% | +43.2% | $2.57 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 20.0% $2.60 Sky Mandala 20.0% $1.79 Coral Bloom 3.3% $1.36 Earth Mandala 20.0% $1.10 Warm Blooded 20.0% $1.07 Red Tide 3.3% $1.04 | $2.60 +128.4% | $1.51 +32.3% | 43.3% | +50.8% | $1.14 | — |