The Prisma 2 Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Prototype
4x $0.46
Tom Cat
1x $0.50
Blue Ply
3x $1.00
VariCamo Blue
1x $19.39
Nitro
1x $21.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Pink DDPAT
10.0% $135.49
Road Rash
10.0% $124.10
Fever Dream
16.0% $3.06
Acid Etched
16.0% $2.37
Darkwing
16.0% $2.29
Apocalypto
16.0% $1.97
Max Win
$135.49 (+184.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$27.81 (-41.6%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+107.2%
Cost
$47.62
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $47.62
Ask Price EV $27.81 (-41.6%)
Bid Price EV $24.21 (-49.2%)
Ask Profit $-19.81 (-41.6%)
Bid Profit $-23.41 (-49.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.60 (+7.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$19.81
Bid Slippage Buffer -$23.41
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $135.49 (+184.5%)
Worst Case $1.90 (-96.0%)
Volatility +107.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$82.17
Avg Loss -$45.30
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.90 (-96.0%)
Std Dev $51.05
Avg Norm Float 0.1216
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 49h 57m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.06 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.09 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Factory New
$1.81 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$19.39 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Nitro
—
Field-Tested
$21.36 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 10M 12S //TOTAL COST $47.62 //ASK PRICE EV $27.81 //BID PRICE EV $24.21 //ASK PROFIT $-19.81 (-41.6%) //BID PROFIT $-23.41 (-49.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $135.49 //VOLATILITY +107.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$135.49
+$87.87
+184.5%
$116.23
+$68.61
+144.1%
$19.26
14.2%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$124.10
+$76.48
+160.6%
$108.84
+$61.22
+128.6%
$15.25
12.3%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$3.06
-$44.56
-93.6%
$2.80
-$44.82
-94.1%
$0.26
8.5%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.37
-$45.25
-95.0%
$2.25
-$45.37
-95.3%
$0.12
5.1%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.29
-$45.33
-95.2%
$2.02
-$45.60
-95.8%
$0.27
11.8%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.97
-$45.65
-95.9%
$1.88
-$45.74
-96.1%
$0.09
4.4%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.90
-$45.72
-96.0%
$1.72
-$45.90
-96.4%
$0.18
9.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.12159,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 2.3705,
"optimistic_value": 2.36,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:00.296113Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.12159,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 1.8969999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 1.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:08:23.484183Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.12159,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 2.291,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 2.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T07:19:18.742363Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0875448,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 3.06,
"optimistic_value": 3.06,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 2.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:28.913817Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.12159,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 1.9669999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.96,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 1.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:49.940116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14997660000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-665b5d16532c",
"realistic_value": 135.48850000000002,
"optimistic_value": 127.68,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT",
"conservative_value": 116.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:16.378463Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-665b5d16532c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.12159,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d7d145b204a5",
"realistic_value": 124.095,
"optimistic_value": 120,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Road Rash",
"conservative_value": 108.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Road Rash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:08.182202Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d7d145b204a5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c7ddf1b224caeaea87946f10",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "631208917632812762",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:25.743149Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "492723793448175861",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:25.743149Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "655978715566164233",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:25.743149Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "669488905360173675",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:42.326645Z"
},
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "518620122759971524",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:09:14.580961Z"
},
{
"price": 1.06,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "523123091059693018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:09:14.580961Z"
},
{
"price": 1.09,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "505109489447933888",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:09:14.580961Z"
},
{
"price": 1.81,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "490472738292643731",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:20.952728Z"
},
{
"price": 19.39,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "496101493258480463",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:52:21.138310Z"
},
{
"price": 21.36,
"skin_id": "skin-11ddb95a9bd7",
"listing_id": "501730992847493381",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-11ddb95a9bd7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:14.372106Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:8+collection-set-overpass:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 10.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 10.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 16.0% $34.68 Enforcer 16.0% $9.50 Darkwing 16.0% $9.41 Apocalypto 16.0% $9.34 | $701.51 +866.4% | $95.14 +31.1% | 20.0% | +279.1% | $72.59 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×9+The Overpass Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 5.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 5.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 18.0% $34.68 Enforcer 18.0% $9.50 Darkwing 18.0% $9.41 Apocalypto 18.0% $9.34 | $701.51 +1589.2% | $54.70 +31.7% | 10.0% | +360.6% | $41.53 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 15.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 15.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 14.0% $34.68 Enforcer 14.0% $9.50 Darkwing 14.0% $9.41 Apocalypto 14.0% $9.34 | $701.51 +551.9% | $135.56 +26.0% | 30.0% | +220.2% | $107.61 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Overpass Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 20.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 20.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 12.0% $34.68 Enforcer 12.0% $9.50 Darkwing 12.0% $9.41 Apocalypto 12.0% $9.34 | $701.51 +363.7% | $175.98 +16.3% | 20.0% | +172.3% | $151.29 | — |