The Prisma 2 Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Bone Forged
2x $0.29
Desert Strike
2x $0.32
Distressed
1x $0.36
Tom Cat
1x $0.37
Prototype
2x $0.41
VariCamo Blue
2x $16.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Road Rash
10.0% $80.19
Pink DDPAT
10.0% $59.98
Fever Dream
16.0% $3.06
Acid Etched
16.0% $1.01
Apocalypto
16.0% $1.00
Enforcer
16.0% $0.98
Max Win
$80.19 (+120.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.14 (-58.4%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+76.5%
Cost
$36.39
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $36.39
Ask Price EV $15.14 (-58.4%)
Bid Price EV $13.00 (-64.3%)
Ask Profit $-21.25 (-58.4%)
Bid Profit $-23.39 (-64.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.14 (+5.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$21.25
Bid Slippage Buffer -$23.39
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $80.19 (+120.4%)
Worst Case $0.96 (-97.4%)
Volatility +76.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$33.69
Avg Loss -$34.99
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.96 (-97.4%)
Std Dev $27.85
Avg Norm Float 0.1946
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 148h 32m
Oldest Output Price 147h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Desert Strike
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Desert Strike
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Field-Tested
$16.47 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Field-Tested
$17.06 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 09M 44S //TOTAL COST $36.39 //ASK PRICE EV $15.14 //BID PRICE EV $13.00 //ASK PROFIT $-21.25 (-58.4%) //BID PROFIT $-23.39 (-64.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $80.19 //VOLATILITY +76.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$80.19
+$43.80
+120.4%
$67.00
+$30.61
+84.1%
$13.19
16.4%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$59.98
+$23.59
+64.8%
$52.99
+$16.60
+45.6%
$6.99
11.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$3.06
-$33.33
-91.6%
$2.80
-$33.59
-92.3%
$0.26
8.5%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.01
-$35.38
-97.2%
$0.87
-$35.52
-97.6%
$0.14
13.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.00
-$35.39
-97.2%
$0.89
-$35.50
-97.6%
$0.11
11.1%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.98
-$35.41
-97.3%
$0.85
-$35.54
-97.7%
$0.13
13.0%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.96
-$35.43
-97.4%
$0.85
-$35.54
-97.7%
$0.11
11.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.19464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 1.01,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:36:18.459472Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.19464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 0.9775,
"optimistic_value": 0.96,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:30.911564Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.19464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 0.9604999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:43:10.461004Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1401408,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 3.06,
"optimistic_value": 3.06,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 2.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:14.244042Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.19464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 1.001,
"optimistic_value": 0.98,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:13:46.135619Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.2040336,
"output_skin_id": "skin-665b5d16532c",
"realistic_value": 59.9785,
"optimistic_value": 59.94,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT",
"conservative_value": 52.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:16.095119Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-665b5d16532c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d7d145b204a5",
"realistic_value": 80.19149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 74.91,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Road Rash",
"conservative_value": 67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Road Rash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T05:39:29.645920Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d7d145b204a5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c7ddf1b224caeaea87946f10",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-3c54e05cbb62",
"listing_id": "501731842661117813",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3c54e05cbb62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:06:03.746478Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-3c54e05cbb62",
"listing_id": "507361237010235361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3c54e05cbb62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:06:03.746478Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-d536309c3714",
"listing_id": "517494388634339806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d536309c3714.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:13.914919Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d536309c3714",
"listing_id": "506235337026426216",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d536309c3714.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:13.914919Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "525375522202008871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:38.466615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "491598690698515994",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:42.326645Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "496102290330001163",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:25.743149Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "631208917632812762",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:25.743149Z"
},
{
"price": 16.47,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "651475044035708298",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:41.506212Z"
},
{
"price": 17.06,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "655978008938796559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:41.506212Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:8+collection-set-overpass:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 10.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 10.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 16.0% $34.68 Enforcer 16.0% $9.50 Darkwing 16.0% $9.41 Apocalypto 16.0% $9.34 | $701.51 +866.4% | $95.14 +31.1% | 20.0% | +279.1% | $72.59 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×9+The Overpass Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 5.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 5.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 18.0% $34.68 Enforcer 18.0% $9.50 Darkwing 18.0% $9.41 Apocalypto 18.0% $9.34 | $701.51 +1589.2% | $54.70 +31.7% | 10.0% | +360.6% | $41.53 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 15.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 15.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 14.0% $34.68 Enforcer 14.0% $9.50 Darkwing 14.0% $9.41 Apocalypto 14.0% $9.34 | $701.51 +551.9% | $135.56 +26.0% | 30.0% | +220.2% | $107.61 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Overpass Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 20.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 20.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 12.0% $34.68 Enforcer 12.0% $9.50 Darkwing 12.0% $9.41 Apocalypto 12.0% $9.34 | $701.51 +363.7% | $175.98 +16.3% | 20.0% | +172.3% | $151.29 | — |