The Prisma 2 Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Prototype
2x $1.81
Tom Cat
4x $3.41
Desert Strike
1x $3.59
Distressed
1x $5.87
VariCamo Blue
1x $19.39
Nitro
1x $21.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Road Rash
10.0% $701.51
Pink DDPAT
10.0% $135.49
Acid Etched
16.0% $34.68
Enforcer
16.0% $9.50
Darkwing
16.0% $9.41
Apocalypto
16.0% $9.34
Max Win
$701.51 (+866.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$95.12 (+31.0%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+283.1%
Cost
$72.59
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $72.59
Ask Price EV $95.12 (+31.0%)
Bid Price EV $71.43 (-1.6%)
Ask Profit $22.53 (+31.0%)
Bid Profit $-1.16 (-1.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $23.70 (+32.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$22.53
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.16
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $701.51 (+866.4%)
Worst Case $8.47 (-88.3%)
Volatility +283.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$345.91
Avg Loss -$58.31
Bottom 5% Outcome $8.47 (-88.3%)
Std Dev $205.54
Avg Norm Float 0.0693
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 147h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Prototype
—
Factory New
$1.81 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Factory New
$1.89 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Factory New
$3.41 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Desert Strike
—
Factory New
$3.59 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Factory New
$4.21 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Factory New
$5.02 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Factory New
$5.87 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Factory New
$6.04 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$19.39 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Nitro
—
Field-Tested
$21.36 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 06M 28S //TOTAL COST $72.59 //ASK PRICE EV $95.12 //BID PRICE EV $71.43 //ASK PROFIT $22.53 (+31.0%) //BID PROFIT $-1.16 (-1.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $701.51 //VOLATILITY +283.1% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$701.51
+$628.92
+866.4%
$490.79
+$418.20
+576.1%
$210.72
30.0%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$135.49
+$62.90
+86.6%
$116.28
+$43.69
+60.2%
$19.21
14.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$34.68
-$37.92
-52.2%
$32.11
-$40.48
-55.8%
$2.56
7.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$9.50
-$63.09
-86.9%
$8.94
-$63.65
-87.7%
$0.56
5.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$9.41
-$63.18
-87.0%
$9.24
-$63.35
-87.3%
$0.17
1.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$9.34
-$63.25
-87.1%
$8.74
-$63.85
-88.0%
$0.60
6.4%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$8.47
-$64.12
-88.3%
$7.96
-$64.63
-89.0%
$0.51
6.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 34.675,
"optimistic_value": 34.5,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 32.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:31.771580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 9.503,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 8.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:24.105235Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 9.4085,
"optimistic_value": 9.37,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 9.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:41.665368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0499176,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 8.4705,
"optimistic_value": 8.39,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 7.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:58:56.976846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 9.3375,
"optimistic_value": 9.25,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 8.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:34.653572Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11130419999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-665b5d16532c",
"realistic_value": 135.48850000000002,
"optimistic_value": 127.68,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT",
"conservative_value": 116.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:48.946225Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-665b5d16532c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d7d145b204a5",
"realistic_value": 701.5105,
"optimistic_value": 657.4,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Road Rash",
"conservative_value": 490.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:44:32.262681Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d7d145b204a5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c7ddf1b224caeaea87946f10",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.81,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "490472738292643731",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:51.236199Z"
},
{
"price": 1.89,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "490471993865742543",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:51.236199Z"
},
{
"price": 3.41,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "491597893785308678",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Factory New)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:14.016206Z"
},
{
"price": 3.59,
"skin_id": "skin-d536309c3714",
"listing_id": "526501587737176037",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d536309c3714.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:29.117284Z"
},
{
"price": 4.21,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "636838417174086148",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Factory New)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:14.016206Z"
},
{
"price": 5.02,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "651473141107813551",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Factory New)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:14.016206Z"
},
{
"price": 5.87,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "503982792737304583",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Factory New)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:32.967011Z"
},
{
"price": 6.04,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "643593816545450569",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Factory New)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:14.016206Z"
},
{
"price": 19.39,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "496101493258480463",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:07.774051Z"
},
{
"price": 21.36,
"skin_id": "skin-11ddb95a9bd7",
"listing_id": "501730992847493381",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-11ddb95a9bd7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:39.243313Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:8+collection-set-overpass:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×9+The Overpass Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 5.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 5.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 18.0% $34.68 Enforcer 18.0% $9.50 Darkwing 18.0% $9.41 Apocalypto 18.0% $9.33 | $701.51 +1593.2% | $54.70 +32.0% | 10.0% | +361.4% | $41.43 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 15.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 15.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 14.0% $34.68 Enforcer 14.0% $9.50 Darkwing 14.0% $9.41 Apocalypto 14.0% $9.33 | $701.51 +551.9% | $135.54 +26.0% | 30.0% | +220.2% | $107.61 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Overpass Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 20.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 20.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 12.0% $34.68 Enforcer 12.0% $9.50 Darkwing 12.0% $9.42 Apocalypto 12.0% $8.94 | $701.51 +363.7% | $175.92 +16.3% | 20.0% | +172.3% | $151.29 | — |