The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Snake Camo
1x $0.07
Orange Peel
1x $0.08
VariCamo
1x $0.11
Mainframe
5x $0.06
Cold Fusion
2x $0.07
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
17.5% $2.55
VariCamo
10.0% $0.70
Facility Negative
17.5% $0.45
Co-Processor
17.5% $0.41
Exchanger
17.5% $0.39
Brass
10.0% $0.25
Max Win
$2.55 (+152.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$0.78 (-22.3%)
Win %
17.5%
Volatility
+81.5%
Cost
$1.01
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.01
Ask Price EV $0.78 (-22.3%)
Bid Price EV $0.69 (-31.3%)
Ask Profit $-0.23 (-22.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.32 (-31.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.09 (+9.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.23
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.32
Risk
Win Probability 17.5%
Loss Probability 82.5%
Best Case $2.55 (+152.7%)
Worst Case $0.24 (-76.2%)
Volatility +81.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 82.5%
Avg Win +$1.54
Avg Loss -$0.60
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.24 (-76.2%)
Std Dev $0.82
Avg Norm Float 0.1796
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 30h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Snake Camo
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | VariCamo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 28M 25S //TOTAL COST $1.01 //ASK PRICE EV $0.78 //BID PRICE EV $0.69 //ASK PROFIT $-0.23 (-22.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.32 (-31.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 17.5% //BEST CASE $2.55 //VOLATILITY +81.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
17.5%
$2.55
+$1.54
+152.7%
$2.19
+$1.18
+116.8%
$0.36
14.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.70
-$0.31
-31.0%
$0.64
-$0.37
-36.6%
$0.06
8.2%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$0.45
-$0.56
-55.7%
$0.38
-$0.63
-62.4%
$0.07
15.1%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$0.41
-$0.60
-59.1%
$0.39
-$0.62
-61.4%
$0.02
5.7%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$0.39
-$0.62
-61.4%
$0.38
-$0.63
-62.4%
$0.01
2.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.25
-$0.76
-75.2%
$0.24
-$0.77
-76.2%
$0.01
4.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.24
-$0.77
-76.2%
$0.21
-$0.80
-79.2%
$0.03
12.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.1491012,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 2.5524999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.5,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:49.877905Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.08982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 0.4135,
"optimistic_value": 0.41,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 0.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T13:13:25.549450Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.08982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 0.39,
"optimistic_value": 0.39,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:27.228942Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.08982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 0.4475,
"optimistic_value": 0.43,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:43.247241Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.10778399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d90d1532701",
"realistic_value": 0.697,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T19:00:48.772116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d90d1532701.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.17964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
"realistic_value": 0.25,
"optimistic_value": 0.25,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
"conservative_value": 0.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:58:07.158099Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.17964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
"realistic_value": 0.24,
"optimistic_value": 0.24,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
"conservative_value": 0.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:14:15.504451Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c78441742f99c6f028a65bb8",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-bacf6f1cd605",
"listing_id": "519746022671408540",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Snake Camo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bacf6f1cd605.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:19:17.138476Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-0464cbc467c0",
"listing_id": "523123835629108954",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0464cbc467c0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:00:57.277048Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-f0efb98b360e",
"listing_id": "515242588553440297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0efb98b360e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:07.492015Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "525375688036808143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:44.877648Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "496102290328404239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:27.079108Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "806843527059547665",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:27.079108Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "519746188258517912",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:33.753508Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "510738936594594550",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:33.753508Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "497227393161145157",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:33.753508Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "739280031442951907",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:33.753508Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2:3+collection-set-nuke-2:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 17.5% $2.55 Exchanger 17.5% $2.44 Co-Processor 17.5% $2.26 Facility Negative 17.5% $2.23 Damascus Steel 10.0% $0.71 VariCamo 10.0% $0.70 | $2.55 +81.0% | $1.87 +32.5% | 70.0% | +48.1% | $1.41 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 15.0% $2.65 Exchanger 15.0% $2.44 Co-Processor 15.0% $2.26 Facility Negative 15.0% $2.23 Damascus Steel 13.3% $0.71 VariCamo 13.3% $0.70 | $2.65 +99.2% | $1.72 +29.0% | 60.0% | +56.6% | $1.33 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 12.5% $2.65 Exchanger 12.5% $2.44 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.26 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.23 Damascus Steel 16.7% $0.71 VariCamo 16.7% $0.70 | $2.65 +103.8% | $1.55 +18.9% | 50.0% | +60.2% | $1.30 | — |