The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Orange Peel
1x $0.31
Safari Mesh
1x $0.51
VariCamo
1x $1.76
Cold Fusion
2x $0.27
Bulkhead
2x $0.42
Mainframe
3x $0.58
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
17.5% $17.37
Brass
10.0% $9.44
Damascus Steel
10.0% $4.76
VariCamo
10.0% $2.94
Exchanger
17.5% $2.44
Co-Processor
17.5% $2.26
Max Win
$17.37 (+146.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.97 (-15.2%)
Win %
27.5%
Volatility
+80.4%
Cost
$7.04
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.04
Ask Price EV $5.97 (-15.2%)
Bid Price EV $5.81 (-17.4%)
Ask Profit $-1.07 (-15.2%)
Bid Profit $-1.23 (-17.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.15 (+2.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.07
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.23
Risk
Win Probability 27.5%
Loss Probability 72.5%
Best Case $17.37 (+146.7%)
Worst Case $2.23 (-68.4%)
Volatility +80.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 72.5%
Avg Win +$7.45
Avg Loss -$4.31
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.23 (-68.4%)
Std Dev $5.66
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 140h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
AK-47 | Safari Mesh
—
Minimal Wear
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$1.76 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Bulkhead
—
Factory New
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Bulkhead
—
Factory New
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$1.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 27M 51S //TOTAL COST $7.04 //ASK PRICE EV $5.97 //BID PRICE EV $5.81 //ASK PROFIT $-1.07 (-15.2%) //BID PROFIT $-1.23 (-17.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 27.5% //BEST CASE $17.37 //VOLATILITY +80.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
17.5%
$17.37
+$10.33
+146.7%
$16.98
+$9.94
+141.2%
$0.39
2.2%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.44
+$2.40
+34.1%
$9.40
+$2.36
+33.5%
$0.04
0.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$4.76
-$2.28
-32.4%
$4.63
-$2.41
-34.2%
$0.13
2.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.94
-$4.10
-58.3%
$2.88
-$4.16
-59.1%
$0.06
1.9%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$2.44
-$4.60
-65.3%
$2.37
-$4.67
-66.3%
$0.07
2.9%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$2.26
-$4.78
-67.9%
$2.04
-$5.00
-71.0%
$0.22
9.7%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$2.23
-$4.81
-68.4%
$2.16
-$4.88
-69.3%
$0.07
3.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.058091699999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 17.3705,
"optimistic_value": 17.36,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 16.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:46.180805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.034995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 2.26,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:15.948497Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.034995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 2.4415,
"optimistic_value": 2.41,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 2.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:42.499198Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.034995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 2.2270000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:55:00.964814Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d90d1532701",
"realistic_value": 2.9370000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.93,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo",
"conservative_value": 2.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:29.162289Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d90d1532701.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
"realistic_value": 9.4435,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
"conservative_value": 9.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:23.051966Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
"realistic_value": 4.7604999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 4.68,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
"conservative_value": 4.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:34:46.364349Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c78441742f99c6f028a65bb8",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-0464cbc467c0",
"listing_id": "521997988014649590",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0464cbc467c0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:18.978394Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-430436880a99",
"listing_id": "502857637416237448",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AK-47 | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-430436880a99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:52.979095Z"
},
{
"price": 1.76,
"skin_id": "skin-f0efb98b360e",
"listing_id": "515241791634456709",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0efb98b360e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:24.521542Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "500605837398877331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:30.615333Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-09caec0af065",
"listing_id": "500605889841280163",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Bulkhead (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Bulkhead",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-09caec0af065.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:36.762571Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "491597893797538058",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:30.615333Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-09caec0af065",
"listing_id": "509613036859100271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Bulkhead (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Bulkhead",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-09caec0af065.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:36.762571Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "490472738292969171",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:08:11.291755Z"
},
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "528753335313332721",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:08:11.291755Z"
},
{
"price": 1.34,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "523123091079502558",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:08:11.291755Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2:3+collection-set-nuke-2:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 17.5% $2.55 Exchanger 17.5% $2.44 Co-Processor 17.5% $2.26 Facility Negative 17.5% $2.23 Damascus Steel 10.0% $0.71 VariCamo 10.0% $0.70 | $2.55 +81.0% | $1.87 +32.5% | 70.0% | +48.1% | $1.41 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 15.0% $2.65 Exchanger 15.0% $2.44 Co-Processor 15.0% $2.26 Facility Negative 15.0% $2.23 Damascus Steel 13.3% $0.71 VariCamo 13.3% $0.70 | $2.65 +99.2% | $1.72 +29.0% | 60.0% | +56.6% | $1.33 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 12.5% $2.65 Exchanger 12.5% $2.44 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.26 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.23 Damascus Steel 16.7% $0.71 VariCamo 16.7% $0.70 | $2.65 +103.8% | $1.55 +18.9% | 50.0% | +60.2% | $1.30 | — |