The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Withered Vine
1x $5.09
Picnic
2x $0.15
Banana Leaf
2x $0.16
Coral Paisley
5x $0.21
↓
Possible Outputs
Amber Fade
2.5% $151.86
Black & Tan
2.5% $55.01
Quick Sand
2.5% $54.74
New Roots
2.5% $38.92
Fraise Crane
22.5% $2.93
Sky Mandala
22.5% $1.58
Max Win
$151.86 (+2041.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.02 (+27.2%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+369.6%
Cost
$7.09
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.09
Ask Price EV $9.02 (+27.2%)
Bid Price EV $7.34 (+3.5%)
Ask Profit $1.93 (+27.2%)
Bid Profit $0.25 (+3.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.68 (+23.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.93
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.25
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $151.86 (+2041.9%)
Worst Case $1.08 (-84.8%)
Volatility +369.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$68.04
Avg Loss -$5.42
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.08 (-84.8%)
Std Dev $26.21
Avg Norm Float 0.1394
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 150h 28m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Withered Vine
—
Field-Tested
$5.09 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 32M 38S //TOTAL COST $7.09 //ASK PRICE EV $9.02 //BID PRICE EV $7.34 //ASK PROFIT $1.93 (+27.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.25 (+3.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $151.86 //VOLATILITY +369.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$151.86
+$144.77
+2041.9%
$135.10
+$128.01
+1805.5%
$16.76
11.0%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$55.01
+$47.92
+675.9%
$39.99
+$32.90
+464.0%
$15.02
27.3%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$54.74
+$47.65
+672.0%
$33.72
+$26.63
+375.6%
$21.02
38.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$38.92
+$31.83
+448.9%
$30.79
+$23.70
+334.3%
$8.13
20.9%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$2.93
-$4.16
-58.6%
$2.39
-$4.70
-66.3%
$0.54
18.5%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$1.58
-$5.51
-77.7%
$1.57
-$5.52
-77.9%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$1.08
-$6.01
-84.7%
$1.03
-$6.06
-85.5%
$0.05
4.9%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$1.08
-$6.01
-84.8%
$1.01
-$6.08
-85.8%
$0.07
6.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.0905905,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 2.9339999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.92,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 2.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:56.777445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.09755899999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 1.58,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:47:20.129562Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.09755899999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 1.0775000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.06,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:27.297782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.0919842,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 1.0835000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.08,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:50.034477Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.0766535,
"output_skin_id": "skin-844716d091ce",
"realistic_value": 38.92,
"optimistic_value": 38.01,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots",
"conservative_value": 30.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:34:59.086712Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-844716d091ce.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.055748,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dc1a0332945f",
"realistic_value": 151.864,
"optimistic_value": 151.08,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade",
"conservative_value": 135.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:47:45.954939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dc1a0332945f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.069685,
"output_skin_id": "skin-38eda175bd2a",
"realistic_value": 54.736999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 45,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Quick Sand",
"conservative_value": 33.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Quick Sand (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T12:23:22.548052Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-38eda175bd2a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.069685,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d6ad2c220f9",
"realistic_value": 55.014,
"optimistic_value": 48.56,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Black & Tan",
"conservative_value": 39.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Black & Tan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T14:07:38.266587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6ad2c220f9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c60899f6d2379bee1369f31f",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 5.09,
"skin_id": "skin-64f26cedec6c",
"listing_id": "509613089305557675",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Withered Vine (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Withered Vine",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-64f26cedec6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:51:39.798302Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "509613142167871203",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:18.529346Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "515242641501270025",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:04:01.968865Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "507361237008908833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:04:01.968865Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "492724538183377989",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:34.172285Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "509613036861256419",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:34.172285Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "499479989895930289",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:34.172285Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "527627435180956868",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:34.172285Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "510738823411175518",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:34.172285Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "519746022668955032",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:18.529346Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2-2021:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Amber Fade 2.5% $151.86 New Roots 2.5% $38.92 Quick Sand 2.5% $37.01 Black & Tan 2.5% $35.68 Fraise Crane 22.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 22.5% $1.58 | $151.86 +2218.5% | $8.09 +23.5% | 10.0% | +372.7% | $6.55 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 5.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 5.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 5.0% $54.74 New Roots 5.0% $38.92 Fraise Crane 20.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 20.0% $1.58 | $151.86 +1109.1% | $16.36 +30.2% | 20.0% | +272.5% | $12.56 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 7.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 7.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 7.5% $54.74 New Roots 7.5% $38.92 Fraise Crane 17.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 17.5% $1.58 | $151.86 +663.5% | $23.71 +19.2% | 30.0% | +198.3% | $19.89 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 10.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 10.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 10.0% $54.74 New Roots 10.0% $38.92 Fraise Crane 15.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 15.0% $1.58 | $151.86 +461.2% | $31.05 +14.8% | 40.0% | +158.0% | $27.06 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Withered Vine 2.5% $36.11 Old Roots  2.5% $20.55 Spalted Wood  2.5% $17.69 Midnight Palm  2.5% $11.88 Calligrafaux  18.0% $0.31 Coral Paisley 18.0% $0.19 | $36.11 +1862.3% | $2.32 +26.3% | 10.0% | +370.9% | $1.84 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Red DDPAT  3.3% $523.81 Orange Anolis  3.3% $512.02 Case Hardened  3.3% $123.02 Exothermic  45.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion  45.0% $22.69 | $523.81 +800.6% | $60.86 +4.6% | 10.0% | +212.2% | $58.16 | — |