The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Withered Vine
1x $5.11
Coral Paisley
1x $0.09
Calligrafaux
3x $0.09
Picnic
2x $0.15
Banana Leaf
2x $0.16
XoooM
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Amber Fade
2.5% $151.86
New Roots
2.5% $38.92
Quick Sand
2.5% $37.01
Black & Tan
2.5% $35.68
Fraise Crane
22.5% $2.93
Sky Mandala
22.5% $1.64
Max Win
$151.86 (+2225.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.10 (+24.0%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+380.7%
Cost
$6.53
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.53
Ask Price EV $8.10 (+24.0%)
Bid Price EV $7.02 (+7.6%)
Ask Profit $1.57 (+24.0%)
Bid Profit $0.49 (+7.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.07 (+16.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.57
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.49
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $151.86 (+2225.6%)
Worst Case $1.05 (-84.0%)
Volatility +380.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$59.34
Avg Loss -$4.85
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.05 (-84.0%)
Std Dev $24.86
Avg Norm Float 0.1746
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 151h 35m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Withered Vine
—
Field-Tested
$5.11 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 36M 30S //TOTAL COST $6.53 //ASK PRICE EV $8.10 //BID PRICE EV $7.02 //ASK PROFIT $1.57 (+24.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.49 (+7.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $151.86 //VOLATILITY +380.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$151.86
+$145.33
+2225.6%
$135.10
+$128.57
+1968.9%
$16.76
11.0%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$38.92
+$32.39
+496.0%
$30.79
+$24.26
+371.5%
$8.13
20.9%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$37.01
+$30.48
+466.8%
$32.52
+$25.99
+398.0%
$4.49
12.1%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$35.68
+$29.14
+446.3%
$28.54
+$22.01
+337.1%
$7.13
20.0%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$2.93
-$3.60
-55.1%
$2.39
-$4.14
-63.4%
$0.54
18.5%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$1.64
-$4.89
-74.8%
$1.57
-$4.96
-76.0%
$0.07
4.5%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$1.09
-$5.44
-83.3%
$1.03
-$5.50
-84.2%
$0.06
5.5%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$1.05
-$5.48
-84.0%
$1.01
-$5.52
-84.5%
$0.04
3.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.1134965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 2.9339999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.92,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 2.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:56.777445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.12222699999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 1.6435,
"optimistic_value": 1.64,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:45.402942Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.12222699999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 1.047,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:57:58.731418Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.1152426,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 1.0905,
"optimistic_value": 1.08,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:07.103756Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.0960355,
"output_skin_id": "skin-844716d091ce",
"realistic_value": 38.92,
"optimistic_value": 38.01,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots",
"conservative_value": 30.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:13.587907Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-844716d091ce.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.069844,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dc1a0332945f",
"realistic_value": 151.864,
"optimistic_value": 151.08,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade",
"conservative_value": 135.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:47:45.954939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dc1a0332945f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.087305,
"output_skin_id": "skin-38eda175bd2a",
"realistic_value": 37.0115,
"optimistic_value": 36.42,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Quick Sand",
"conservative_value": 32.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Quick Sand (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:12.119982Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-38eda175bd2a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.087305,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d6ad2c220f9",
"realistic_value": 35.675,
"optimistic_value": 37.26,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Black & Tan",
"conservative_value": 28.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Black & Tan (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:51:18.841075Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6ad2c220f9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c60899f6d2379bee1369f31f",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 5.11,
"skin_id": "skin-64f26cedec6c",
"listing_id": "505109542379915948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Withered Vine (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Withered Vine",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-64f26cedec6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:04:36.230119Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "508487136897751490",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:47.293356Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "500605889841587387",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:57.177569Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "493849693281145552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:57.177569Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "506235337025928048",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:57.177569Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "509613142167940179",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:47.527557Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "515242641501270025",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:46.637540Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "507361237008908833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:46.637540Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "525375740885784211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:47.527557Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620341242882920",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:41.857832Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2-2021:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 2.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 2.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 2.5% $54.74 New Roots 2.5% $38.92 Fraise Crane 22.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 22.5% $1.64 | $151.86 +1933.0% | $9.02 +20.8% | 10.0% | +343.4% | $7.47 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 5.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 5.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 5.0% $54.74 New Roots 5.0% $38.92 Fraise Crane 20.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 20.0% $1.64 | $151.86 +1060.2% | $16.37 +25.0% | 20.0% | +261.4% | $13.09 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 7.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 7.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 7.5% $54.74 New Roots 7.5% $38.92 Fraise Crane 17.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 17.5% $1.64 | $151.86 +659.7% | $23.72 +18.6% | 30.0% | +197.3% | $19.99 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 10.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 10.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 10.0% $54.74 New Roots 10.0% $38.92 Fraise Crane 15.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 15.0% $1.62 | $151.86 +460.4% | $31.06 +14.6% | 40.0% | +157.8% | $27.10 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Withered Vine 2.5% $36.11 Old Roots  2.5% $20.55 Spalted Wood  2.5% $17.69 Midnight Palm  2.5% $11.88 Calligrafaux 18.0% $0.31 Coral Paisley 18.0% $0.18 | $36.11 +1810.4% | $2.32 +22.9% | 10.0% | +361.1% | $1.89 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Red DDPAT  3.3% $523.81 Orange Anolis  3.3% $512.02 Case Hardened  3.3% $123.02 Exothermic  45.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion  45.0% $22.67 | $523.81 +793.3% | $60.86 +3.8% | 10.0% | +210.5% | $58.64 | — |