The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Old Roots
1x $6.72
Picnic
3x $0.18
XoooM
2x $0.34
Banana Leaf
3x $0.35
Coral Paisley
1x $1.16
↓
Possible Outputs
Amber Fade
2.5% $151.86
Black & Tan
2.5% $55.01
Quick Sand
2.5% $54.74
New Roots
2.5% $44.43
Fraise Crane
22.5% $6.16
Sky Mandala
22.5% $3.48
Max Win
$151.86 (+978.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.85 (-22.9%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+184.2%
Cost
$14.08
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $14.08
Ask Price EV $10.85 (-22.9%)
Bid Price EV $9.23 (-34.4%)
Ask Profit $-3.23 (-22.9%)
Bid Profit $-4.85 (-34.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.62 (+11.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.23
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.85
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $151.86 (+978.6%)
Worst Case $2.28 (-83.8%)
Volatility +184.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$62.43
Avg Loss -$10.52
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.28 (-83.8%)
Std Dev $25.93
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 9m
Oldest Output Price 151h 35m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Old Roots
—
Minimal Wear
$6.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Factory New
$1.16 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 36M 10S //TOTAL COST $14.08 //ASK PRICE EV $10.85 //BID PRICE EV $9.23 //ASK PROFIT $-3.23 (-22.9%) //BID PROFIT $-4.85 (-34.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $151.86 //VOLATILITY +184.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$151.86
+$137.78
+978.6%
$135.10
+$121.02
+859.5%
$16.76
11.0%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.5%
$55.01
+$40.93
+290.7%
$39.99
+$25.91
+184.0%
$15.02
27.3%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.5%
$54.74
+$40.66
+288.8%
$33.72
+$19.64
+139.5%
$21.02
38.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$44.43
+$30.35
+215.5%
$34.15
+$20.07
+142.5%
$10.28
23.1%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$6.16
-$7.92
-56.3%
$6.12
-$7.96
-56.5%
$0.04
0.6%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$3.48
-$10.60
-75.3%
$3.42
-$10.66
-75.7%
$0.06
1.8%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$2.30
-$11.78
-83.6%
$2.25
-$11.83
-84.0%
$0.05
2.3%
—
NUKE
22.5%
$2.28
-$11.80
-83.8%
$2.25
-$11.83
-84.0%
$0.03
1.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.045396,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.048887999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.484,
"optimistic_value": 3.47,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:25.941367Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.048887999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:29.198715Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.225,
"output_float": 0.0460944,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.3035,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:29.429487Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.038412,
"output_skin_id": "skin-844716d091ce",
"realistic_value": 44.428000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 43.49,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots",
"conservative_value": 34.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | New Roots (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:09.249474Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-844716d091ce.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.027936000000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dc1a0332945f",
"realistic_value": 151.864,
"optimistic_value": 151.08,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade",
"conservative_value": 135.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:47:45.954939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dc1a0332945f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.03492,
"output_skin_id": "skin-38eda175bd2a",
"realistic_value": 54.736999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 45,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Quick Sand",
"conservative_value": 33.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Quick Sand (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T12:23:22.548052Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-38eda175bd2a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.03492,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d6ad2c220f9",
"realistic_value": 55.014,
"optimistic_value": 48.56,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Black & Tan",
"conservative_value": 39.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2021 Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Black & Tan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T14:07:38.266587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6ad2c220f9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c60899f6d2379bee1369f31f",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 6.72,
"skin_id": "skin-348f142a19ac",
"listing_id": "497228024529094649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2-2021",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Old Roots (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Old Roots",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-348f142a19ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:02.914995Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "525375740885784211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:47.527557Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620341242882920",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:41.857832Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "519746241188358872",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:53.871574Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "526501640650770053",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:53.871574Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884292343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:57.398458Z"
},
{
"price": 1.16,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "525374890949118943",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:42.637330Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884286583",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:57.398458Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620235867474188",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:41.857832Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "528753221918528889",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:53.871574Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2-2021:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Amber Fade 2.5% $151.86 New Roots 2.5% $38.92 Quick Sand 2.5% $37.01 Black & Tan 2.5% $35.68 Fraise Crane 22.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 22.5% $1.64 | $151.86 +2225.6% | $8.10 +24.0% | 10.0% | +373.8% | $6.53 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 2.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 2.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 2.5% $54.74 New Roots 2.5% $38.92 Fraise Crane 22.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 22.5% $1.64 | $151.86 +1933.0% | $9.02 +20.8% | 10.0% | +343.4% | $7.47 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 5.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 5.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 5.0% $54.74 New Roots 5.0% $38.92 Fraise Crane 20.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 20.0% $1.64 | $151.86 +1060.2% | $16.37 +25.0% | 20.0% | +261.4% | $13.09 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 7.5% $151.86 Black & Tan 7.5% $55.01 Quick Sand 7.5% $54.74 New Roots 7.5% $38.92 Fraise Crane 17.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 17.5% $1.64 | $151.86 +659.7% | $23.72 +18.6% | 30.0% | +197.3% | $19.99 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Amber Fade 10.0% $151.86 Black & Tan 10.0% $55.01 Quick Sand 10.0% $54.74 New Roots 10.0% $38.92 Fraise Crane 15.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 15.0% $1.62 | $151.86 +460.4% | $31.06 +14.6% | 40.0% | +157.8% | $27.10 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Withered Vine  2.5% $36.11 Old Roots 2.5% $20.55 Spalted Wood  2.5% $17.69 Midnight Palm  2.5% $11.88 Calligrafaux  18.0% $0.31 Coral Paisley 18.0% $0.18 | $36.11 +1810.4% | $2.32 +22.9% | 10.0% | +361.1% | $1.89 | — |
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Red DDPAT  3.3% $523.81 Orange Anolis  3.3% $512.02 Case Hardened  3.3% $123.02 Exothermic  45.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion  45.0% $22.67 | $523.81 +793.3% | $60.86 +3.8% | 10.0% | +210.5% | $58.64 | — |