The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Zubastick
2x $0.15
Fragment
1x $0.20
Bock Blocks
1x $0.21
Aeolian Light
1x $0.27
Creep
2x $0.28
The Daily Deagle
2x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $5.61
Electrum
8.0% $3.09
Trace Lock
30.0% $2.19
Firebreathing
8.0% $2.02
Galigator
8.0% $1.98
Urban Sovereign
8.0% $1.44
Max Win
$5.61 (+106.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.13 (+15.1%)
Win %
38.0%
Volatility
+61.5%
Cost
$2.72
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.72
Ask Price EV $3.13 (+15.1%)
Bid Price EV $2.80 (+3.0%)
Ask Profit $0.41 (+15.1%)
Bid Profit $0.08 (+3.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.33 (+12.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.41
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.08
Risk
Win Probability 38.0%
Loss Probability 62.0%
Best Case $5.61 (+106.4%)
Worst Case $1.36 (-50.2%)
Volatility +61.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 32.0%
Avg Win +$2.36
Avg Loss -$0.78
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.36 (-50.2%)
Std Dev $1.67
Avg Norm Float 0.4102
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 154h 8m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 22M 09S //TOTAL COST $2.72 //ASK PRICE EV $3.13 //BID PRICE EV $2.80 //ASK PROFIT $0.41 (+15.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.08 (+3.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 38.0% //BEST CASE $5.61 //VOLATILITY +61.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$5.61
+$2.89
+106.4%
$5.00
+$2.28
+83.8%
$0.61
10.9%
—
PAPER WIN
8.0%
$3.09
+$0.37
+13.7%
$2.55
-$0.17
-6.3%
$0.54
17.5%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$2.19
-$0.54
-19.7%
$2.13
-$0.59
-21.7%
$0.06
2.5%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$2.02
-$0.70
-25.6%
$1.87
-$0.85
-31.3%
$0.15
7.6%
—
LOSS THIN BID
8.0%
$1.98
-$0.74
-27.2%
$1.30
-$1.42
-52.2%
$0.68
34.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.44
-$1.28
-46.9%
$1.28
-$1.44
-52.9%
$0.16
11.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.36
-$1.36
-50.2%
$1.27
-$1.45
-53.3%
$0.09
6.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.30766499999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.6135,
"optimistic_value": 5.54,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:38.278338Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.28715399999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.185,
"optimistic_value": 2.15,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:43.497152Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.41022,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.0235,
"optimistic_value": 2.02,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 1.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:09:27.454296Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.41022,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 1.9809999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T04:16:23.451221Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.41022,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 3.0915,
"optimistic_value": 3.06,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 2.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:14:00.395844Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.41022,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:07:43.988472Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.41022,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.4435,
"optimistic_value": 1.44,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:11:01.563636Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c5f2efa9660ec85a884ff7b5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "497228243055051101",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:44.612815Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "505109542380280088",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:44.612815Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "494976443342935662",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:14.306793Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "510739041954273730",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:55:45.341636Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "529879287550318068",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:52:58.106613Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "503983642533591163",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:52:55.829379Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "508487242223105030",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:34.223131Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "496102343226769463",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:34.223131Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "511864941882733017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:22.596637Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "500605942756508075",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:06.385346Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.94 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +156.4% | $6.10 +29.8% | 60.0% | +82.3% | $4.70 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 30.0% $13.73 Electrum 8.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 8.0% $5.02 Galigator 8.0% $3.33 Amberline 8.0% $3.18 | $27.06 +120.2% | $13.97 +13.7% | 60.0% | +72.8% | $12.29 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.94 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +136.3% | $6.70 +31.3% | 35.0% | +76.2% | $5.10 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.94 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +115.5% | $7.30 +30.5% | 40.0% | +68.7% | $5.59 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.94 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +183.5% | $5.50 +29.4% | 50.0% | +88.8% | $4.25 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.94 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 2.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +97.5% | $7.90 +29.4% | 45.0% | +61.1% | $6.10 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.94 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +208.9% | $4.90 +25.7% | 52.0% | +92.1% | $3.90 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $5.61 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.76 | $5.61 +127.3% | $2.93 +18.5% | 43.0% | +51.7% | $2.47 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 5.0% $12.05 Electrum 18.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 18.0% $5.02 Trace Lock 5.0% $4.93 Galigator 18.0% $3.30 Amberline 18.0% $3.16 | $12.05 +194.6% | $4.74 +15.8% | 46.0% | +51.5% | $4.09 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Breakthrough 10.0% $27.06 Electrum 16.0% $19.50 Trace Lock 10.0% $13.73 Firebreathing 16.0% $12.97 Galigator 16.0% $11.06 Amberline 16.0% $10.23 | $27.06 +105.1% | $14.28 +8.3% | 36.0% | +38.1% | $13.19 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 The End  10.0% $27.17 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.44 Deathgaze  30.0% $9.41 | $35.39 +129.1% | $18.99 +22.9% | 40.0% | +77.2% | $15.45 | — |