The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Bock Blocks
2x $0.39
Fragment
2x $0.41
Creep
3x $0.34
The Daily Deagle
1x $0.43
Aeolian Light
1x $0.70
Grip Tape
1x $0.73
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $12.05
Trace Lock
30.0% $4.90
Electrum
8.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
8.0% $2.79
Galigator
8.0% $2.19
Amberline
8.0% $1.77
Max Win
$12.05 (+154.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.09 (+28.5%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+85.7%
Cost
$4.74
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.74
Ask Price EV $6.09 (+28.5%)
Bid Price EV $5.26 (+10.9%)
Ask Profit $1.35 (+28.5%)
Bid Profit $0.52 (+10.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.84 (+17.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.35
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.52
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $12.05 (+154.2%)
Worst Case $1.73 (-63.4%)
Volatility +85.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 32.0%
Avg Win +$3.74
Avg Loss -$2.22
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.73 (-63.4%)
Std Dev $4.06
Avg Norm Float 0.1996
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 153h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 56S //TOTAL COST $4.74 //ASK PRICE EV $6.09 //BID PRICE EV $5.26 //ASK PROFIT $1.35 (+28.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.52 (+10.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $12.05 //VOLATILITY +85.7% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$12.05
+$7.31
+154.2%
$10.32
+$5.58
+117.7%
$1.73
14.3%
—
PAPER WIN
30.0%
$4.90
+$0.16
+3.4%
$4.28
-$0.46
-9.7%
$0.62
12.7%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$4.11
-$0.63
-13.3%
$3.61
-$1.13
-23.8%
$0.50
12.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.79
-$1.95
-41.2%
$2.32
-$2.42
-51.1%
$0.47
16.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.19
-$2.55
-53.9%
$1.74
-$3.00
-63.3%
$0.45
20.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.77
-$2.97
-62.7%
$1.64
-$3.10
-65.4%
$0.13
7.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.73
-$3.01
-63.4%
$1.63
-$3.11
-65.6%
$0.10
6.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.14973,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.049,
"optimistic_value": 11.93,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 10.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:28.312731Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.139748,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.9025,
"optimistic_value": 4.85,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:31.467096Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.77,
"optimistic_value": 1.77,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:10:02.257099Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.7349999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.7,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:17:49.700043Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c5f2efa9660ec85a884ff7b5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "517494441498796270",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:01:38.670276Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "508487242222783730",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:01:38.670276Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "490472843633195751",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:27.691649Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "526501640651263541",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:27.691649Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "498354142900741891",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:32.891659Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "511864941882503121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:32.891659Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "523123940969688190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:12.586936Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "516368541589358198",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:32.891659Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "502857742727258344",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:48.102188Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "509613142168526763",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:36.971465Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.61 Electrum 8.0% $3.09 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.33 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.02 Galigator 8.0% $1.98 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.36 | $5.61 +109.5% | $3.16 +18.0% | 38.0% | +58.9% | $2.68 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 30.0% $13.97 Electrum 8.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 8.0% $5.02 Galigator 8.0% $3.30 Amberline 8.0% $3.14 | $27.06 +121.6% | $14.03 +14.9% | 60.0% | +73.3% | $12.21 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Breakthrough 30.0% $27.06 Electrum 8.0% $19.50 Trace Lock 30.0% $13.97 Firebreathing 8.0% $12.97 Galigator 8.0% $11.02 Amberline 8.0% $10.17 | $27.06 +58.0% | $17.40 +1.6% | 38.0% | +37.3% | $17.13 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.93 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 Amberline 4.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +118.7% | $7.30 +32.4% | 40.0% | +69.7% | $5.51 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Amberline 6.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +137.7% | $6.70 +32.1% | 35.0% | +76.7% | $5.07 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.90 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Amberline 10.0% $1.77 | $12.05 +178.3% | $5.50 +26.9% | 50.0% | +87.1% | $4.33 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $5.61 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.33 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Amberline 12.0% $1.77 | $5.61 +129.1% | $3.10 +26.5% | 44.0% | +55.2% | $2.45 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.90 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 Amberline 2.0% $1.77 | $12.05 +93.4% | $7.88 +26.5% | 45.0% | +60.1% | $6.23 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $5.61 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.33 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Amberline 14.0% $1.74 | $5.61 +133.9% | $2.95 +22.9% | 43.0% | +52.7% | $2.40 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $5.61 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 10.0% $2.31 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Amberline 16.0% $1.77 | $5.61 +136.9% | $2.81 +18.4% | 42.0% | +48.4% | $2.37 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 5.0% $12.25 Electrum 18.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 18.0% $5.02 Trace Lock 5.0% $4.91 Galigator 18.0% $3.41 Amberline 18.0% $3.14 | $12.25 +192.2% | $4.76 +13.6% | 46.0% | +50.7% | $4.19 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 The End  10.0% $27.17 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.44 Deathgaze  30.0% $9.16 | $35.39 +133.4% | $18.91 +24.8% | 40.0% | +79.1% | $15.16 | — |