The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Fragment
3x $0.50
Zubastick
1x $0.55
Creep
3x $0.86
Aeolian Light
1x $0.94
Grip Tape
2x $2.23
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $27.06
Trace Lock
30.0% $13.73
Electrum
8.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
8.0% $5.02
Galigator
8.0% $3.33
Amberline
8.0% $3.18
Max Win
$27.06 (+120.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$13.97 (+13.7%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+77.0%
Cost
$12.29
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $12.29
Ask Price EV $13.97 (+13.7%)
Bid Price EV $13.45 (+9.4%)
Ask Profit $1.68 (+13.7%)
Bid Profit $1.16 (+9.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.52 (+4.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.68
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.16
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $27.06 (+120.2%)
Worst Case $3.13 (-74.6%)
Volatility +77.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$8.10
Avg Loss -$7.96
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.13 (-74.6%)
Std Dev $9.46
Avg Norm Float 0.0929
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 154h 5m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.23 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.35 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 22M 09S //TOTAL COST $12.29 //ASK PRICE EV $13.97 //BID PRICE EV $13.45 //ASK PROFIT $1.68 (+13.7%) //BID PROFIT $1.16 (+9.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $27.06 //VOLATILITY +77.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$27.06
+$14.77
+120.2%
$26.47
+$14.18
+115.4%
$0.59
2.2%
—
SMALL WIN
30.0%
$13.73
+$1.44
+11.7%
$13.20
+$0.91
+7.4%
$0.53
3.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$7.00
-$5.29
-43.1%
$5.93
-$6.36
-51.7%
$1.07
15.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$5.02
-$7.27
-59.2%
$3.97
-$8.32
-67.7%
$1.05
20.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.33
-$8.96
-72.9%
$3.23
-$9.06
-73.7%
$0.10
3.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.18
-$9.11
-74.1%
$3.13
-$9.16
-74.5%
$0.05
1.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.13
-$9.16
-74.6%
$3.08
-$9.21
-74.9%
$0.05
1.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 27.057000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 27.05,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:17.581071Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.065016,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 13.73,
"optimistic_value": 13.66,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:52:51.442465Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09288,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09288,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.331,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:00.892618Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09288,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09288,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.18,
"optimistic_value": 3.18,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:48.759626Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09288,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.1270000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 3.12,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:05:14.586243Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c5f2efa9660ec85a884ff7b5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "505109542380764864",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:46.547336Z"
},
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287552057336",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:03:53.680604Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "491598743580519002",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:46.547336Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "508487242222285778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:55:36.174871Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "497228243056065977",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:52:51.792803Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "491598743581180106",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:52:51.792803Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:07.007083Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "503983642532704231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:52:51.792803Z"
},
{
"price": 2.23,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "500605942755906911",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:52:53.562078Z"
},
{
"price": 2.35,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620341243286300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:52:53.562078Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.94 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +156.4% | $6.10 +29.8% | 60.0% | +82.3% | $4.70 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.61 Electrum 8.0% $3.09 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.19 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.02 Galigator 8.0% $1.98 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.44 | $5.61 +106.4% | $3.13 +15.1% | 38.0% | +58.7% | $2.72 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.94 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +136.3% | $6.70 +31.3% | 35.0% | +76.2% | $5.10 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.94 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +115.5% | $7.30 +30.5% | 40.0% | +68.7% | $5.59 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.94 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +183.5% | $5.50 +29.4% | 50.0% | +88.8% | $4.25 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.94 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 2.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +97.5% | $7.90 +29.4% | 45.0% | +61.1% | $6.10 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.94 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +208.9% | $4.90 +25.7% | 52.0% | +92.1% | $3.90 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $5.61 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.76 | $5.61 +127.3% | $2.93 +18.5% | 43.0% | +51.7% | $2.47 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 5.0% $12.05 Electrum 18.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 18.0% $5.02 Trace Lock 5.0% $4.93 Galigator 18.0% $3.30 Amberline 18.0% $3.16 | $12.05 +194.6% | $4.74 +15.8% | 46.0% | +51.5% | $4.09 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Breakthrough 10.0% $27.06 Electrum 16.0% $19.50 Trace Lock 10.0% $13.73 Firebreathing 16.0% $12.97 Galigator 16.0% $11.06 Amberline 16.0% $10.23 | $27.06 +105.1% | $14.28 +8.3% | 36.0% | +38.1% | $13.19 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 The End  10.0% $27.17 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.44 Deathgaze  30.0% $9.41 | $35.39 +129.1% | $18.99 +22.9% | 40.0% | +77.2% | $15.45 | — |