The Gamma Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Iron Clad
2x $1.12
Aerial
1x $2.24
Motorized
1x $0.34
Slag
2x $0.37
Dezastre
1x $0.61
Light Box
1x $0.76
↓
Possible Outputs
Reboot
6.0% $31.83
Aristocrat
6.0% $15.36
Limelight
6.0% $14.43
Phobos
6.0% $13.56
Etch Lord
14.0% $13.06
Chopper
6.0% $9.68
Max Win
$31.83 (+175.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$11.15 (-3.5%)
Win %
38.0%
Volatility
+53.3%
Cost
$11.56
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $11.56
Ask Price EV $11.15 (-3.5%)
Bid Price EV $10.01 (-13.4%)
Ask Profit $-0.41 (-3.5%)
Bid Profit $-1.55 (-13.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.15 (+9.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.41
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.55
Risk
Win Probability 38.0%
Loss Probability 62.0%
Best Case $31.83 (+175.4%)
Worst Case $4.13 (-64.3%)
Volatility +53.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 28.0%
Avg Win +$5.12
Avg Loss -$3.80
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.13 (-64.3%)
Std Dev $6.16
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 155h 28m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Iron Clad
—
Minimal Wear
$1.12 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Iron Clad
—
Minimal Wear
$1.69 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Aerial
—
Factory New
$2.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Factory New
$1.56 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Factory New
$2.02 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 53M 06S //TOTAL COST $11.56 //ASK PRICE EV $11.15 //BID PRICE EV $10.01 //ASK PROFIT $-0.41 (-3.5%) //BID PROFIT $-1.55 (-13.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 38.0% //BEST CASE $31.83 //VOLATILITY +53.3% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$31.83
+$20.27
+175.4%
$29.96
+$18.40
+159.2%
$1.87
5.9%
—
WIN
6.0%
$15.36
+$3.80
+32.8%
$12.39
+$0.83
+7.2%
$2.97
19.3%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$14.43
+$2.87
+24.8%
$11.74
+$0.18
+1.6%
$2.69
18.6%
—
WIN
6.0%
$13.56
+$2.00
+17.3%
$13.45
+$1.89
+16.3%
$0.11
0.8%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$13.06
+$1.50
+12.9%
$12.03
+$0.47
+4.1%
$1.03
7.9%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$9.68
-$1.88
-16.2%
$8.62
-$2.94
-25.4%
$1.06
11.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$9.31
-$2.25
-19.4%
$7.84
-$3.72
-32.2%
$1.47
15.8%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$8.90
-$2.66
-23.0%
$7.77
-$3.79
-32.8%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$7.89
-$3.67
-31.8%
$7.43
-$4.13
-35.7%
$0.46
5.8%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$4.13
-$7.43
-64.3%
$3.76
-$7.80
-67.5%
$0.37
8.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-13|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:28:57.736585Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.046863281250000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.314,
"optimistic_value": 9.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:28:58.626471Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.043165485,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.1265,
"optimistic_value": 4.06,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:11.593982Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.046035000000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d88fbf7ef8e1",
"realistic_value": 15.3565,
"optimistic_value": 15.29,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Aristocrat",
"conservative_value": 12.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AUG | Aristocrat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:14:57.675711Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d88fbf7ef8e1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.027900000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-78882aeeb9a7",
"realistic_value": 13.556,
"optimistic_value": 13.5,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Phobos",
"conservative_value": 13.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T14:37:58.702451Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78882aeeb9a7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.041850000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-31a18fdabe59",
"realistic_value": 9.683499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 9.54,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Chopper",
"conservative_value": 8.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:21.816745Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-31a18fdabe59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1b8d8987488f",
"realistic_value": 31.831,
"optimistic_value": 29.99,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Reboot",
"conservative_value": 29.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Reboot (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:18.254098Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1b8d8987488f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-33872c48a8e5",
"realistic_value": 14.4305,
"optimistic_value": 14,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Limelight",
"conservative_value": 11.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:29.690902Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33872c48a8e5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c5c11703d2f1e0da2241c25f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.12,
"skin_id": "skin-6736df07aec5",
"listing_id": "506235442368036996",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Iron Clad",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6736df07aec5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:39:30.160539Z"
},
{
"price": 1.69,
"skin_id": "skin-6736df07aec5",
"listing_id": "528753387757488969",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Iron Clad",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6736df07aec5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:39:30.160539Z"
},
{
"price": 2.24,
"skin_id": "skin-f7201f00d647",
"listing_id": "496101493265031383",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Aerial",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f7201f00d647.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:05.248305Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "527627540538064388",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:07.728597Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "515242641502660669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:43.994743Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:24.397487Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "622201718386433724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:58.222526Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:06.377160Z"
},
{
"price": 1.56,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "527627322002854856",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:26.955101Z"
},
{
"price": 2.02,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "503983537175624575",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:18.885152Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-13:3+collection-set-community-33:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 6.0% $13.56 Reboot 6.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 6.0% $6.48 Chopper 6.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.43 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 | $13.56 +261.5% | $4.56 +21.6% | 58.0% | +65.3% | $3.75 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Phobos 6.0% $9.84 Aristocrat 6.0% $6.48 Chopper 6.0% $4.89 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Reboot 6.0% $3.51 Limelight 6.0% $2.60 | $9.84 +251.3% | $3.25 +15.9% | 38.0% | +67.3% | $2.80 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 4.0% $13.56 Reboot 4.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 4.0% $6.48 Chopper 4.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.43 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 | $13.56 +304.7% | $4.14 +23.5% | 52.0% | +63.5% | $3.35 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 2.0% $13.56 Reboot 2.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 2.0% $6.48 Chopper 2.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 | $13.56 +341.6% | $3.73 +21.4% | 64.0% | +53.3% | $3.07 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 8.0% $13.56 Reboot 8.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 8.0% $6.48 Chopper 8.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 | $13.56 +218.2% | $4.98 +17.0% | 44.0% | +62.5% | $4.26 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 10.0% $13.56 Reboot 10.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 10.0% $6.48 Chopper 10.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 | $13.56 +187.2% | $5.40 +14.5% | 40.0% | +59.6% | $4.72 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Desolate Space  13.3% $71.39 Bloodsport  13.3% $53.46 Black Lotus  20.0% $37.06 Imperial Dragon  13.3% $29.78 Jawbreaker  20.0% $26.33 Olympus  20.0% $13.83 | $71.39 +126.1% | $36.06 +14.2% | 46.7% | +57.5% | $31.57 | — |