The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Irezumi
1x $0.12
Light Box
1x $0.13
Creep
3x $0.26
The Daily Deagle
3x $0.34
Aeolian Light
2x $0.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
40.0% $5.61
Trace Lock
40.0% $2.24
Block-18
4.0% $0.77
Etch Lord
4.0% $0.73
Hybrid
4.0% $0.71
Just Smile
4.0% $0.67
Max Win
$5.61 (+86.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.28 (+9.1%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+65.9%
Cost
$3.01
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.01
Ask Price EV $3.28 (+9.1%)
Bid Price EV $2.97 (-1.2%)
Ask Profit $0.27 (+9.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.04 (-1.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.31 (+10.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.27
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.04
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $5.61 (+86.5%)
Worst Case $0.63 (-79.2%)
Volatility +65.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$2.60
Avg Loss -$1.28
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.67 (-77.7%)
Std Dev $1.98
Avg Norm Float 0.3873
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 155h 20m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 32M 11S //TOTAL COST $3.01 //ASK PRICE EV $3.28 //BID PRICE EV $2.97 //ASK PROFIT $0.27 (+9.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.04 (-1.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $5.61 //VOLATILITY +65.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
40.0%
$5.61
+$2.60
+86.5%
$5.00
+$1.99
+66.1%
$0.61
10.9%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$2.24
-$0.77
-25.5%
$2.13
-$0.88
-29.2%
$0.11
5.1%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.77
-$2.24
-74.4%
$0.71
-$2.30
-76.4%
$0.06
7.9%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.73
-$2.28
-75.7%
$0.58
-$2.43
-80.7%
$0.15
20.5%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.71
-$2.30
-76.4%
$0.57
-$2.44
-81.1%
$0.14
19.7%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.67
-$2.34
-77.7%
$0.57
-$2.44
-81.1%
$0.10
15.0%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.63
-$2.38
-79.2%
$0.61
-$2.40
-79.7%
$0.02
2.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.290505,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.6135,
"optimistic_value": 5.54,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:38.278338Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.271138,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.2435,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:25.411828Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.38734,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:17:11.263775Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.2602440625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 0.771,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:11:50.072397Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.38734,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.73,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:07.825109Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.38734,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.6705,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:08:36.174769Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.2397092324,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 0.627,
"optimistic_value": 0.62,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:19:02.853510Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c5384ed15d64bd4413ca02f1",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "492724643508628857",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:22.212265Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "518620341244279540",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:05:34.656182Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "515242641502780333",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:26.589196Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "499480042829042929",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:26.589196Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "508487242223105030",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:53.928679Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "496102343226769463",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:53.928679Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "510739041955006366",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:18.510950Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "492724643508541377",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:01.421513Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "529879340433220392",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:18.510950Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "523123940969688190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:53.928679Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:2+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 40.0% $5.01 Block-18 4.0% $1.51 Analog Input 4.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 4.0% $0.81 Just Smile 4.0% $0.73 | $12.05 +114.4% | $7.02 +24.9% | 40.0% | +74.4% | $5.62 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 40.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 40.0% $13.99 Block-18 4.0% $4.07 Analog Input 4.0% $2.99 Just Smile 4.0% $1.61 Etch Lord 4.0% $1.60 | $27.06 +86.2% | $16.89 +16.2% | 40.0% | +60.7% | $14.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 30.0% $5.03 Block-18 8.0% $1.51 Analog Input 8.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.75 Just Smile 8.0% $0.72 | $12.05 +184.2% | $5.50 +29.8% | 60.0% | +103.9% | $4.24 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.94 Block-18 6.0% $1.51 Analog Input 6.0% $1.06 Just Smile 6.0% $0.76 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.75 | $12.05 +148.4% | $6.23 +28.5% | 70.0% | +89.8% | $4.85 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 25.0% $5.01 Block-18 10.0% $1.51 Analog Input 10.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.75 Just Smile 10.0% $0.73 | $12.05 +225.6% | $4.74 +28.1% | 50.0% | +117.7% | $3.70 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 20.0% $5.01 Block-18 12.0% $1.51 Analog Input 12.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 12.0% $0.75 Just Smile 12.0% $0.72 | $12.05 +286.2% | $3.98 +27.6% | 40.0% | +134.1% | $3.12 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 45.0% $5.03 Block-18 2.0% $1.51 Analog Input 2.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 2.0% $0.75 Just Smile 2.0% $0.72 | $12.05 +92.5% | $7.78 +24.3% | 45.0% | +62.4% | $6.26 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.94 Block-18 14.0% $1.51 Analog Input 14.0% $1.06 Just Smile 14.0% $0.76 Etch Lord 14.0% $0.75 | $12.05 +361.6% | $3.22 +23.4% | 30.0% | +147.9% | $2.61 | — |