The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Light Box
1x $0.14
Dezastre
1x $0.28
Grip Tape
4x $0.37
Creep
2x $0.39
Aeolian Light
2x $0.70
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
40.0% $12.05
Trace Lock
40.0% $4.94
Block-18
4.0% $1.37
Analog Input
4.0% $1.02
Etch Lord
4.0% $0.80
Hybrid
4.0% $0.76
Max Win
$12.05 (+129.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.98 (+33.0%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+83.6%
Cost
$5.25
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.25
Ask Price EV $6.98 (+33.0%)
Bid Price EV $6.01 (+14.5%)
Ask Profit $1.73 (+33.0%)
Bid Profit $0.76 (+14.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.97 (+18.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.73
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.76
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $12.05 (+129.5%)
Worst Case $0.73 (-86.1%)
Volatility +83.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$6.80
Avg Loss -$1.64
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.76 (-85.5%)
Std Dev $4.39
Avg Norm Float 0.1996
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 8m
Oldest Output Price 1h 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 28M 04S //TOTAL COST $5.25 //ASK PRICE EV $6.98 //BID PRICE EV $6.01 //ASK PROFIT $1.73 (+33.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.76 (+14.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $12.05 //VOLATILITY +83.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
40.0%
$12.05
+$6.80
+129.5%
$10.32
+$5.07
+96.6%
$1.73
14.3%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$4.94
-$0.31
-5.9%
$4.28
-$0.97
-18.5%
$0.66
13.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.37
-$3.88
-73.8%
$1.30
-$3.95
-75.2%
$0.07
5.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.02
-$4.23
-80.5%
$0.98
-$4.27
-81.3%
$0.04
4.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.80
-$4.45
-84.7%
$0.69
-$4.56
-86.9%
$0.11
14.1%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.76
-$4.49
-85.5%
$0.66
-$4.59
-87.4%
$0.10
13.2%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.73
-$4.52
-86.1%
$0.69
-$4.56
-86.9%
$0.04
5.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.1496775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.049,
"optimistic_value": 11.93,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 10.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:28.312731Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.139699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.9385,
"optimistic_value": 4.9,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:32.311458Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.19957,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.76,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:05:16.355636Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.13408609375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 1.373,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:31:42.869506Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.19957,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.8035,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:08:39.756008Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.19957,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.7304999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:41.414947Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.1235058902,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.0245,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:05:29.385254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c5384ed15d64bd4413ca02f1",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "490472738292849795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:15:14.550136Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "501731842662453845",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:11.628128Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "511864941882733017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:27.940180Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "500605942756508075",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:06.512999Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "505109542380719216",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:27.940180Z"
},
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "507361342334767273",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:27.940180Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "496102343226808487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:46.403366Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "501731842661949953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:46.403366Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "524249840859550539",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:42.969777Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "497228243056065977",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:39.795184Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:2+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 40.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 40.0% $13.73 Block-18 4.0% $4.16 Analog Input 4.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 4.0% $1.64 Just Smile 4.0% $1.61 | $27.06 +90.4% | $16.79 +18.2% | 40.0% | +62.3% | $14.21 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 40.0% $5.61 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.19 Block-18 4.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 4.0% $0.73 Hybrid 4.0% $0.71 Analog Input 4.0% $0.65 | $5.61 +77.1% | $3.26 +2.8% | 40.0% | +60.8% | $3.17 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.93 Block-18 2.0% $1.42 Analog Input 2.0% $1.02 Etch Lord 2.0% $0.78 Just Smile 2.0% $0.73 | $12.05 +104.2% | $7.73 +31.1% | 45.0% | +66.9% | $5.90 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.94 Block-18 14.0% $1.42 Analog Input 14.0% $1.02 Etch Lord 14.0% $0.78 Just Smile 14.0% $0.73 | $12.05 +383.9% | $3.20 +28.6% | 30.0% | +155.4% | $2.49 | — |