The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Dark Sigil
1x $0.84
Dezastre
1x $2.10
Creep
2x $1.75
Aeolian Light
2x $2.00
Grip Tape
3x $2.11
The Daily Deagle
1x $3.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
40.0% $27.06
Trace Lock
40.0% $13.99
Etch Lord
4.0% $10.44
Just Smile
4.0% $9.45
Hybrid
4.0% $8.10
Block-18
4.0% $4.07
Max Win
$27.06 (+33.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.82 (-12.2%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+39.8%
Cost
$20.29
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $20.29
Ask Price EV $17.82 (-12.2%)
Bid Price EV $17.28 (-14.8%)
Ask Profit $-2.47 (-12.2%)
Bid Profit $-3.01 (-14.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.54 (+2.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.47
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.01
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $27.06 (+33.4%)
Worst Case $2.99 (-85.3%)
Volatility +39.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$6.77
Avg Loss -$8.63
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.07 (-79.9%)
Std Dev $8.07
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 11m
Oldest Output Price 2h 41m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.84 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.10 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.03 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.11 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.23 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.35 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 31M 53S //TOTAL COST $20.29 //ASK PRICE EV $17.82 //BID PRICE EV $17.28 //ASK PROFIT $-2.47 (-12.2%) //BID PROFIT $-3.01 (-14.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $27.06 //VOLATILITY +39.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
40.0%
$27.06
+$6.77
+33.4%
$26.47
+$6.18
+30.5%
$0.59
2.2%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$13.99
-$6.31
-31.1%
$13.25
-$7.04
-34.7%
$0.73
5.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$10.44
-$9.86
-48.6%
$10.32
-$9.97
-49.1%
$0.12
1.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$9.45
-$10.84
-53.4%
$9.40
-$10.89
-53.7%
$0.05
0.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$8.10
-$12.19
-60.1%
$8.09
-$12.20
-60.1%
$0.01
0.1%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$4.07
-$16.22
-79.9%
$4.02
-$16.27
-80.2%
$0.05
1.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$2.99
-$17.30
-85.3%
$2.96
-$17.33
-85.4%
$0.03
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.052455,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 27.057000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 27.05,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:17.581071Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.048958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 13.985,
"optimistic_value": 13.74,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:18.010354Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 8.1,
"optimistic_value": 8.1,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 8.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:36.915639Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.0469909375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.0725,
"optimistic_value": 4.02,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 4.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:56:42.746309Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 10.435,
"optimistic_value": 10.4,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 10.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:54.024180Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.4505,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 9.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:48.104087Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.0432830684,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.99,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 2.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:19:05.675052Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c5384ed15d64bd4413ca02f1",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.84,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "509613089305575423",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:44.666516Z"
},
{
"price": 2.1,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "498354142900946515",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:47.317058Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "503983642532704231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:25.086731Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "524248990833803271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:25.086731Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "519746135813832428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:24.196265Z"
},
{
"price": 2.03,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "520871922575479500",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:24.196265Z"
},
{
"price": 2.11,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "515242641502787245",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:22.884906Z"
},
{
"price": 2.23,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "500605942755906911",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:22.884906Z"
},
{
"price": 2.35,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620341243286300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:22.884906Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:04.357444Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:2+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 40.0% $5.01 Block-18 4.0% $1.51 Analog Input 4.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 4.0% $0.81 Just Smile 4.0% $0.73 | $12.05 +114.4% | $7.02 +24.9% | 40.0% | +74.4% | $5.62 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 40.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 40.0% $13.99 Block-18 4.0% $4.07 Analog Input 4.0% $2.99 Just Smile 4.0% $1.61 Etch Lord 4.0% $1.60 | $27.06 +86.2% | $16.89 +16.2% | 40.0% | +60.7% | $14.53 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 40.0% $5.61 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.24 Block-18 4.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 4.0% $0.73 Hybrid 4.0% $0.71 Just Smile 4.0% $0.67 | $5.61 +86.5% | $3.28 +9.1% | 40.0% | +63.5% | $3.01 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 30.0% $5.03 Block-18 8.0% $1.51 Analog Input 8.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.75 Just Smile 8.0% $0.72 | $12.05 +184.2% | $5.50 +29.8% | 60.0% | +103.9% | $4.24 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.94 Block-18 6.0% $1.51 Analog Input 6.0% $1.06 Just Smile 6.0% $0.76 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.75 | $12.05 +148.4% | $6.23 +28.5% | 70.0% | +89.8% | $4.85 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 25.0% $5.01 Block-18 10.0% $1.51 Analog Input 10.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.75 Just Smile 10.0% $0.73 | $12.05 +225.6% | $4.74 +28.1% | 50.0% | +117.7% | $3.70 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 20.0% $5.01 Block-18 12.0% $1.51 Analog Input 12.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 12.0% $0.75 Just Smile 12.0% $0.72 | $12.05 +286.2% | $3.98 +27.6% | 40.0% | +134.1% | $3.12 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 45.0% $5.03 Block-18 2.0% $1.51 Analog Input 2.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 2.0% $0.75 Just Smile 2.0% $0.72 | $12.05 +92.5% | $7.78 +24.3% | 45.0% | +62.4% | $6.26 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.94 Block-18 14.0% $1.51 Analog Input 14.0% $1.06 Just Smile 14.0% $0.76 Etch Lord 14.0% $0.75 | $12.05 +361.6% | $3.22 +23.4% | 30.0% | +147.9% | $2.61 | — |