The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Bock Blocks
1x $0.24
Zubastick
4x $0.40
Gold Leaf
1x $0.18
Copperflage
2x $0.41
Poplar Thicket
2x $0.50
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
10.0% $7.00
Sheet Lightning
25.0% $5.26
Firebreathing
10.0% $5.02
Glockingbird
25.0% $3.87
Galigator
10.0% $3.27
Amberline
10.0% $3.19
Max Win
$7.00 (+65.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.44 (+5.0%)
Win %
45.0%
Volatility
+28.0%
Cost
$4.23
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $4.23
Ask Price EV $4.44 (+5.0%)
Bid Price EV $4.16 (-1.7%)
Ask Profit $0.21 (+5.0%)
Bid Profit $-0.07 (-1.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.29 (+6.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.21
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.07
Risk
Win Probability 45.0%
Loss Probability 55.0%
Best Case $7.00 (+65.4%)
Worst Case $3.11 (-26.4%)
Volatility +28.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 10.0%
Avg Win +$1.36
Avg Loss -$0.73
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.11 (-26.4%)
Std Dev $1.19
Avg Norm Float 0.1487
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 149h 24m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 23S //TOTAL COST $4.23 //ASK PRICE EV $4.44 //BID PRICE EV $4.16 //ASK PROFIT $0.21 (+5.0%) //BID PROFIT $-0.07 (-1.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $7.00 //VOLATILITY +28.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$7.00
+$2.77
+65.4%
$5.93
+$1.70
+40.2%
$1.07
15.2%
—
WIN
25.0%
$5.26
+$1.03
+24.4%
$5.07
+$0.84
+19.9%
$0.19
3.7%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$5.02
+$0.79
+18.7%
$3.97
-$0.26
-6.1%
$1.05
20.9%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$3.87
-$0.36
-8.5%
$3.84
-$0.39
-9.2%
$0.03
0.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.27
-$0.96
-22.6%
$3.18
-$1.05
-24.8%
$0.09
2.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.19
-$1.04
-24.6%
$3.13
-$1.10
-26.0%
$0.06
1.9%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.11
-$1.12
-26.4%
$3.08
-$1.15
-27.2%
$0.03
1.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.09965580000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 3.871,
"optimistic_value": 3.85,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 3.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:25.695127Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.11155500000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 5.264,
"optimistic_value": 5.25,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 5.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:33.797580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14874,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14874,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.2725,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:32.492597Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14874,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14874,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.1915,
"optimistic_value": 3.16,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:04.586148Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14874,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.1135,
"optimistic_value": 3.11,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:38.241616Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_bfe5ad1e0fe59d744ccc8c4d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885165047",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:04.383066Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "498354142899935419",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:58.830566Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "500605942755482003",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:58.830566Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "491598743580366974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:58.830566Z"
},
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287552057552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:58.830566Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496102290328703183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:55.787155Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "519746241188606228",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:46.226993Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "499479989895403681",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:21.482705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "520872141037740540",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:46.226993Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089305639647",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:21.482705Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.26 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.87 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.73 | $5.26 +72.0% | $3.53 +15.5% | 60.0% | +38.3% | $3.06 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.73 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $1.71 Amberline 14.0% $1.67 | $4.11 +129.7% | $2.22 +24.3% | 42.0% | +45.3% | $1.79 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.73 Sheet Lightning 20.0% $1.71 Amberline 12.0% $1.67 | $4.11 +136.3% | $2.13 +22.6% | 36.0% | +44.6% | $1.74 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.26 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.86 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.73 | $5.26 +58.1% | $3.74 +12.2% | 68.0% | +34.3% | $3.33 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  23.3% $35.39 Green Energy  30.0% $17.77 Deathgaze  23.3% $9.59 Kintsugi  23.3% $9.29 | $35.39 +143.9% | $18.00 +24.0% | 53.3% | +70.5% | $14.51 | — |