The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5

Mil-Spec Grade Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Bock Blocks
M249 | Bock Blocks
1x $0.24
Zubastick
M4A4 | Zubastick
4x $0.40
Gold Leaf
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
1x $0.18
Copperflage
XM1014 | Copperflage
2x $0.41
Poplar Thicket
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
2x $0.50
Possible Outputs
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
10.0% $7.00
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
25.0% $5.26
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
10.0% $5.02
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
25.0% $3.87
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
10.0% $3.27
Amberline
MP7 | Amberline
10.0% $3.19
Max Win
$7.00 (+65.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.44 (+5.0%)
Win %
45.0%
Volatility
+28.0%
Cost
$4.23
Age
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGE
Total Cost $4.23
Ask Price EV $4.44 (+5.0%)
Bid Price EV $4.16 (-1.7%)
Ask Profit $0.21 (+5.0%)
Bid Profit $-0.07 (-1.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.29 (+6.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.21
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.07
Risk
Win Probability 45.0%
Loss Probability 55.0%
Best Case $7.00 (+65.4%)
Worst Case $3.11 (-26.4%)
Volatility +28.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 10.0%
Avg Win +$1.36
Avg Loss -$0.73
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.11 (-26.4%)
Std Dev $1.19
Avg Norm Float 0.1487
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 149h 24m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
Field-Tested
M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
Minimal Wear
M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
Minimal Wear
M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
Minimal Wear
M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
Minimal Wear
M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
Field-Tested
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
Minimal Wear
XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
Minimal Wear
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
Minimal Wear
XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
Minimal Wear
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 23S //TOTAL COST $4.23 //ASK PRICE EV $4.44 //BID PRICE EV $4.16 //ASK PROFIT $0.21 (+5.0%) //BID PROFIT $-0.07 (-1.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $7.00 //VOLATILITY +28.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.09965580000000002,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
      "realistic_value": 3.871,
      "optimistic_value": 3.85,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
      "conservative_value": 3.84,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:25.695127Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.11155500000000002,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
      "realistic_value": 5.264,
      "optimistic_value": 5.25,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
      "conservative_value": 5.07,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:33.797580Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.14874,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
      "realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
      "optimistic_value": 4.95,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
      "conservative_value": 3.97,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.14874,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
      "realistic_value": 3.2725,
      "optimistic_value": 3.22,
      "output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
      "conservative_value": 3.18,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:32.492597Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.14874,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
      "realistic_value": 6.997,
      "optimistic_value": 6.99,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
      "conservative_value": 5.93,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.14874,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "realistic_value": 3.1915,
      "optimistic_value": 3.16,
      "output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "conservative_value": 3.13,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:04.586148Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.14874,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "realistic_value": 3.1135,
      "optimistic_value": 3.11,
      "output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "conservative_value": 3.08,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:38.241616Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_bfe5ad1e0fe59d744ccc8c4d",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.24,
      "skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
      "listing_id": "525375740885165047",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:04.383066Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
      "listing_id": "498354142899935419",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:58.830566Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
      "listing_id": "500605942755482003",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:58.830566Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
      "listing_id": "491598743580366974",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:58.830566Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.55,
      "skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
      "listing_id": "529879287552057552",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:58.830566Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
      "listing_id": "496102290328703183",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:55.787155Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
      "listing_id": "519746241188606228",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:46.226993Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "499479989895403681",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:21.482705Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
      "listing_id": "520872141037740540",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:46.226993Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.6,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "509613089305639647",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:21.482705Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade Restricted Field-Tested
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
25.0% $5.26
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
10.0% $4.11
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
25.0% $3.87
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
10.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
10.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
10.0% $1.73
$5.26
+72.0%
$3.53
+15.5%
60.0%+38.3%$3.06
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade Restricted Field-Tested
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
14.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
14.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
14.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
14.0% $1.73
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
15.0% $1.71
Amberline
MP7 | Amberline
14.0% $1.67
$4.11
+129.7%
$2.22
+24.3%
42.0%+45.3%$1.79
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade Restricted Field-Tested
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
12.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
12.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
12.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
12.0% $1.73
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
20.0% $1.71
Amberline
MP7 | Amberline
12.0% $1.67
$4.11
+136.3%
$2.13
+22.6%
36.0%+44.6%$1.74
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade Restricted Field-Tested
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
30.0% $5.26
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
8.0% $4.11
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
30.0% $3.86
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
8.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
8.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
8.0% $1.73
$5.26
+58.1%
$3.74
+12.2%
68.0%+34.3%$3.33
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3
Restricted Classified Field-Tested
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
23.3% $35.39
Green Energy
AWP | Green Energy
30.0% $17.77
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
23.3% $9.59
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
23.3% $9.29
$35.39
+143.9%
$18.00
+24.0%
53.3%+70.5%$14.51
FS

TradeUps

Market intelligence and contract tracking for Counter-Strike 2.

TRADEUPS.ORG

support@tradeups.org

© 2026 TradeUps. All rights reserved.

TradeUps is not affiliated with Valve Corporation. We provide analytics and market data only, and do not sell, broker, custody, or transfer Counter-Strike 2 virtual items.