The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Zubastick
1x $0.55
RMX
1x $0.94
Fragment
2x $1.57
Dark Polymer
1x $2.12
Poplar Thicket
5x $0.71
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
10.0% $19.50
Sheet Lightning
25.0% $17.66
Firebreathing
10.0% $12.97
Glockingbird
25.0% $11.97
Galigator
10.0% $11.12
Amberline
10.0% $10.22
Max Win
$19.50 (+32.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$13.79 (-6.6%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+22.8%
Cost
$14.77
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $14.77
Ask Price EV $13.79 (-6.6%)
Bid Price EV $13.17 (-10.8%)
Ask Profit $-0.98 (-6.6%)
Bid Profit $-1.60 (-10.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.62 (+4.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.98
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.60
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $19.50 (+32.0%)
Worst Case $10.00 (-32.3%)
Volatility +22.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$3.42
Avg Loss -$3.35
Bottom 5% Outcome $10.00 (-32.3%)
Std Dev $3.36
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 149h 34m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Factory New
$2.12 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 53M 57S //TOTAL COST $14.77 //ASK PRICE EV $13.79 //BID PRICE EV $13.17 //ASK PROFIT $-0.98 (-6.6%) //BID PROFIT $-1.60 (-10.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $19.50 //VOLATILITY +22.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$19.50
+$4.73
+32.0%
$17.32
+$2.55
+17.3%
$2.18
11.2%
—
WIN
25.0%
$17.66
+$2.89
+19.6%
$17.09
+$2.32
+15.7%
$0.57
3.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$12.97
-$1.80
-12.2%
$11.57
-$3.20
-21.7%
$1.40
10.8%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$11.97
-$2.80
-19.0%
$11.70
-$3.07
-20.8%
$0.27
2.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$11.12
-$3.65
-24.7%
$10.78
-$3.99
-27.0%
$0.34
3.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$10.22
-$4.55
-30.8%
$10.09
-$4.68
-31.7%
$0.13
1.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$10.00
-$4.77
-32.3%
$10.00
-$4.77
-32.3%
$0.00
0.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.0468866,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 11.970500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 11.96,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 11.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:06.778434Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.052485000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 17.6605,
"optimistic_value": 17.65,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 17.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:28.190227Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.122,
"optimistic_value": 11.08,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:26.781259Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.224,
"optimistic_value": 10.21,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:27.546596Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 10,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 10,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:08.151209Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_bfe5ad1e0fe59d744ccc8c4d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287552057552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:58.830566Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "527627435179257020",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:29:16.665818Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "523123940968912786",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:21.989014Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "493850543431869700",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:21.989014Z"
},
{
"price": 2.12,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "519746241188345048",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:11.803250Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089303443359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:21.482705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.97,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "516368322946009778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:21.482705Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "502857689862180880",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:20.064064Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "518620288314275428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:20.064064Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "512990623223766251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:20.064064Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.26 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.87 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.73 | $5.26 +72.0% | $3.53 +15.5% | 60.0% | +38.3% | $3.06 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.26 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.87 Galigator 10.0% $3.27 Amberline 10.0% $3.19 | $7.00 +65.4% | $4.44 +5.0% | 45.0% | +26.2% | $4.23 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.73 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $1.71 Amberline 14.0% $1.67 | $4.11 +129.7% | $2.22 +24.3% | 42.0% | +45.3% | $1.79 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.73 Sheet Lightning 20.0% $1.71 Amberline 12.0% $1.67 | $4.11 +136.3% | $2.13 +22.6% | 36.0% | +44.6% | $1.74 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.26 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.86 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.73 | $5.26 +58.1% | $3.74 +12.2% | 68.0% | +34.3% | $3.33 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  23.3% $35.39 Green Energy  30.0% $17.77 Deathgaze  23.3% $9.59 Kintsugi  23.3% $9.29 | $35.39 +143.9% | $18.00 +24.0% | 53.3% | +70.5% | $14.51 | — |