The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Dark Polymer
1x $0.20
Bock Blocks
1x $0.24
Fragment
2x $0.27
Zubastick
1x $0.41
Gold Leaf
2x $0.18
Copperflage
2x $0.38
↓
Possible Outputs
Sheet Lightning
25.0% $5.20
Electrum
10.0% $4.11
Glockingbird
25.0% $3.88
Firebreathing
10.0% $2.79
Galigator
10.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
10.0% $1.79
Max Win
$5.20 (+74.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.53 (+18.6%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+42.8%
Cost
$2.98
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.98
Ask Price EV $3.53 (+18.6%)
Bid Price EV $3.20 (+7.3%)
Ask Profit $0.55 (+18.6%)
Bid Profit $0.22 (+7.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.33 (+11.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.55
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.22
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $5.20 (+74.6%)
Worst Case $1.73 (-41.9%)
Volatility +42.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$1.49
Avg Loss -$0.86
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.73 (-41.9%)
Std Dev $1.28
Avg Norm Float 0.1998
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 148h 26m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 58M 56S //TOTAL COST $2.98 //ASK PRICE EV $3.53 //BID PRICE EV $3.20 //ASK PROFIT $0.55 (+18.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.22 (+7.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $5.20 //VOLATILITY +42.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$5.20
+$2.22
+74.6%
$5.08
+$2.10
+70.5%
$0.12
2.4%
—
WIN
10.0%
$4.11
+$1.13
+38.0%
$3.61
+$0.63
+21.1%
$0.50
12.2%
—
WIN
25.0%
$3.88
+$0.90
+30.3%
$3.34
+$0.36
+12.1%
$0.54
14.0%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.79
-$0.19
-6.5%
$2.32
-$0.66
-22.1%
$0.47
16.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.19
-$0.79
-26.6%
$1.74
-$1.24
-41.6%
$0.45
20.4%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.79
-$1.19
-39.8%
$1.64
-$1.34
-45.0%
$0.15
8.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.73
-$1.25
-41.9%
$1.63
-$1.35
-45.3%
$0.10
5.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.1338861,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 3.884,
"optimistic_value": 3.87,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:52.441156Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.14987250000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 5.2044999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 5.18,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 5.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:45.854802Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.7305,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:04.979710Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.7945,
"optimistic_value": 1.77,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:07.501663Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_bfe5ad1e0fe59d744ccc8c4d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "496102343225451899",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:41.251867Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "507361342333665493",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:51.802526Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "523123888072505314",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:06.309474Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "512990789044719455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:06.309474Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "510739041953617126",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:48.491023Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496102290328703183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:55.739517Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:55.739517Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "500605889842078859",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:44.731518Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "499480042827500509",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:44.731518Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "523123888072572238",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:28.967905Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $17.68 Glockingbird 25.0% $11.79 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Galigator 10.0% $3.34 Amberline 10.0% $3.18 | $17.68 +86.9% | $9.54 +0.8% | 50.0% | +56.4% | $9.46 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.79 Amberline 12.0% $1.73 Sheet Lightning 20.0% $1.71 | $4.11 +119.8% | $2.15 +14.9% | 36.0% | +40.9% | $1.87 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.20 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.92 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.73 | $5.20 +59.6% | $3.74 +14.7% | 68.0% | +34.3% | $3.26 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.73 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $1.71 Amberline 14.0% $1.71 | $4.11 +110.8% | $2.23 +14.3% | 42.0% | +41.4% | $1.95 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  23.3% $35.39 Green Energy  30.0% $17.77 Deathgaze  23.3% $9.92 Kintsugi  23.3% $9.18 | $35.39 +138.3% | $18.05 +21.5% | 53.3% | +68.7% | $14.85 | — |