The Recoil Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Roadblock
1x $0.11
Poly Mag
1x $0.13
Destroyer
1x $0.14
Shredded
4x $0.26
Rose Hex
3x $0.31
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
23.3% $5.01
Glitched Paint
23.3% $3.06
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $2.10
Crazy 8
6.0% $0.71
Vent Rush
6.0% $0.70
Flora Carnivora
6.0% $0.69
Max Win
$5.01 (+83.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.57 (-5.7%)
Win %
46.7%
Volatility
+58.8%
Cost
$2.73
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.73
Ask Price EV $2.57 (-5.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.36 (-13.7%)
Ask Profit $-0.16 (-5.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.37 (-13.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.22 (+7.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.16
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.37
Risk
Win Probability 46.7%
Loss Probability 53.3%
Best Case $5.01 (+83.4%)
Worst Case $0.60 (-77.9%)
Volatility +58.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$1.30
Avg Loss -$1.43
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.60 (-77.9%)
Std Dev $1.60
Avg Norm Float 0.4441
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 140h 28m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Well-Worn
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 42S //TOTAL COST $2.73 //ASK PRICE EV $2.57 //BID PRICE EV $2.36 //ASK PROFIT $-0.16 (-5.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.37 (-13.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $5.01 //VOLATILITY +58.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
23.3%
$5.01
+$2.28
+83.4%
$4.66
+$1.93
+70.7%
$0.35
6.9%
—
SMALL WIN
23.3%
$3.06
+$0.33
+12.1%
$2.76
+$0.03
+1.1%
$0.30
9.8%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$2.10
-$0.63
-23.2%
$1.90
-$0.83
-30.4%
$0.20
9.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.71
-$2.02
-73.9%
$0.57
-$2.16
-79.1%
$0.14
20.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.70
-$2.03
-74.2%
$0.61
-$2.12
-77.7%
$0.09
13.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.69
-$2.04
-74.7%
$0.66
-$2.07
-75.8%
$0.03
4.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.65
-$2.08
-76.3%
$0.61
-$2.12
-77.7%
$0.04
5.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.60
-$2.13
-77.9%
$0.59
-$2.14
-78.4%
$0.01
2.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.3331125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.2975805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 3.061,
"optimistic_value": 3.04,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:36.421779Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.26649,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.0965,
"optimistic_value": 2.03,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:53.978969Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.44415,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T22:50:29.393112Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.2886975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 0.6034999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.6,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 0.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:48.435276Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.310905,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 0.7034999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:32:58.063801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.44415,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:39:07.418782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.310905,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 0.648,
"optimistic_value": 0.62,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:49:57.934166Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_be417639def07a4485e37f95",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "496102290329219315",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Well-Worn)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:08.211766Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "514116688949403654",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:43:36.642365Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "524249735518461147",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:47:33.412821Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:28.190095Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "527627435178804896",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:28.190095Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "527627435179581668",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:28.190095Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "520872088106590440",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:00.384170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:00.384170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:00.384170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:31.514694Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.58 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.32 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.12 Downtown 6.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +204.8% | $6.98 +33.5% | 70.0% | +96.1% | $5.23 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 23.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 23.3% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $16.98 Dragon Tech 6.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 6.0% $4.20 Downtown 6.0% $3.53 | $33.42 +135.8% | $16.76 +18.3% | 70.0% | +68.4% | $14.17 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.58 Dragon Tech 14.0% $1.32 Vent Rush 14.0% $1.12 Downtown 14.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +501.6% | $3.57 +34.6% | 30.0% | +166.1% | $2.65 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.58 Dragon Tech 4.0% $1.30 Vent Rush 4.0% $1.12 Downtown 4.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +162.6% | $7.84 +29.1% | 53.3% | +81.3% | $6.07 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.05 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.58 Dragon Tech 2.0% $1.25 Vent Rush 2.0% $1.12 Downtown 2.0% $1.10 | $15.94 +131.0% | $8.67 +25.7% | 60.0% | +69.3% | $6.90 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.58 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.30 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.12 Downtown 16.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +611.7% | $2.72 +21.4% | 20.0% | +170.8% | $2.24 | — |