The Recoil Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Roadblock
2x $0.27
Winterized
1x $0.28
Shredded
3x $0.38
Rose Hex
3x $0.40
Blush Pour
1x $0.65
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
23.3% $15.94
Glitched Paint
23.3% $7.02
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $5.48
Dragon Tech
6.0% $1.25
Vent Rush
6.0% $1.18
Downtown
6.0% $1.10
Max Win
$15.94 (+203.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.94 (+31.9%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+104.1%
Cost
$5.26
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.26
Ask Price EV $6.94 (+31.9%)
Bid Price EV $6.32 (+20.1%)
Ask Profit $1.68 (+31.9%)
Bid Profit $1.06 (+20.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.62 (+11.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.68
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.06
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $15.94 (+203.1%)
Worst Case $0.72 (-86.2%)
Volatility +104.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$4.22
Avg Loss -$4.26
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.72 (-86.2%)
Std Dev $5.48
Avg Norm Float 0.1998
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 139h 38m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.82 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 07S //TOTAL COST $5.26 //ASK PRICE EV $6.94 //BID PRICE EV $6.32 //ASK PROFIT $1.68 (+31.9%) //BID PROFIT $1.06 (+20.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $15.94 //VOLATILITY +104.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$15.94
+$10.68
+203.1%
$14.54
+$9.28
+176.4%
$1.40
8.8%
—
WIN
23.3%
$7.02
+$1.76
+33.5%
$6.21
+$0.95
+18.1%
$0.81
11.5%
—
PAPER WIN
23.3%
$5.48
+$0.22
+4.2%
$5.14
-$0.12
-2.3%
$0.34
6.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.25
-$4.01
-76.2%
$1.12
-$4.14
-78.7%
$0.13
10.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.18
-$4.08
-77.6%
$1.08
-$4.18
-79.5%
$0.10
8.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.10
-$4.16
-79.1%
$1.03
-$4.23
-80.4%
$0.07
6.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.76
-$4.50
-85.5%
$0.69
-$4.57
-86.9%
$0.07
9.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.72
-$4.54
-86.2%
$0.70
-$4.56
-86.7%
$0.02
3.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.14985749999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.9415,
"optimistic_value": 15.91,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1338727,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 7.0205,
"optimistic_value": 6.94,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:07.062148Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.11988599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.4815000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 5.45,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:46.515053Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.7635,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:46:04.838811Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.1298765,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 1.1,
"optimistic_value": 1.1,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 1.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:35:05.370098Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.139867,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 1.1800000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.11,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 1.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:34.035732Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 0.7234999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:33:05.338572Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.139867,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 1.2525,
"optimistic_value": 1.2,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:55:40.775434Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_be417639def07a4485e37f95",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "507361289453126461",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:53:00.353696Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "499479989895563665",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:35:07.583704Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "492724538183456433",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:53:00.353696Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "512990789044606523",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:46:01.680101Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:24.587929Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:46:01.680101Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293744649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:38:59.797257Z"
},
{
"price": 0.82,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "527627435179438172",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:45:33.871040Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "506235389469553368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:18.455662Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "491598638255524202",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:45:33.871040Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 23.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 23.3% $17.44 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $16.98 Dragon Tech 6.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 6.0% $4.20 Downtown 6.0% $3.53 | $33.42 +127.6% | $16.76 +14.2% | 70.0% | +66.1% | $14.68 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Mulberry 23.3% $5.01 Glitched Paint 23.3% $2.91 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $2.22 Vent Rush 6.0% $0.70 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.69 Dragon Tech 6.0% $0.67 | $5.01 +98.7% | $2.57 +1.9% | 46.7% | +57.2% | $2.52 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Mulberry 23.3% $5.01 Glitched Paint 23.3% $2.91 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $2.22 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.71 Vent Rush 6.0% $0.70 Flora Carnivora 6.0% $0.69 | $5.01 +96.3% | $2.57 +0.8% | 46.7% | +56.4% | $2.55 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.05 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.50 Dragon Tech 4.0% $1.25 Vent Rush 4.0% $1.12 Downtown 4.0% $1.10 | $15.94 +162.6% | $7.80 +28.5% | 53.3% | +81.6% | $6.07 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.02 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.50 Dragon Tech 2.0% $1.35 Vent Rush 2.0% $1.21 Downtown 2.0% $1.10 | $15.94 +128.4% | $8.64 +23.8% | 60.0% | +68.8% | $6.98 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $6.95 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.50 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.25 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.12 Downtown 16.0% $1.10 | $15.94 +611.7% | $2.68 +19.7% | 20.0% | +170.5% | $2.24 | — |