The Recoil Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Roadblock
1x $0.39
Meow 36
1x $0.47
Destroyer
1x $2.01
Red Tide
1x $1.04
Shredded
3x $1.33
Blush Pour
3x $1.53
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
23.3% $33.42
Glitched Paint
23.3% $17.45
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $16.98
Dragon Tech
6.0% $4.38
Vent Rush
6.0% $4.20
Downtown
6.0% $3.53
Max Win
$33.42 (+135.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.76 (+18.3%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+77.7%
Cost
$14.17
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $14.17
Ask Price EV $16.76 (+18.3%)
Bid Price EV $16.00 (+12.9%)
Ask Profit $2.59 (+18.3%)
Bid Profit $1.83 (+12.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.76 (+5.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.59
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.83
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $33.42 (+135.8%)
Worst Case $1.70 (-88.0%)
Volatility +77.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$8.45
Avg Loss -$11.06
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.70 (-88.0%)
Std Dev $11.01
Avg Norm Float 0.0930
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 141h 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Meow 36
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Minimal Wear
$1.04 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.79 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$2.16 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 42S //TOTAL COST $14.17 //ASK PRICE EV $16.76 //BID PRICE EV $16.00 //ASK PROFIT $2.59 (+18.3%) //BID PROFIT $1.83 (+12.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +77.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$33.42
+$19.25
+135.8%
$31.48
+$17.31
+122.2%
$1.94
5.8%
—
WIN
23.3%
$17.45
+$3.28
+23.2%
$16.69
+$2.52
+17.8%
$0.76
4.4%
—
WIN
23.3%
$16.98
+$2.81
+19.8%
$16.48
+$2.31
+16.3%
$0.50
2.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.38
-$9.79
-69.1%
$4.37
-$9.80
-69.2%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.20
-$9.97
-70.4%
$4.19
-$9.98
-70.4%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.53
-$10.64
-75.1%
$3.52
-$10.65
-75.2%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.74
-$12.43
-87.7%
$1.61
-$12.56
-88.6%
$0.13
7.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.70
-$12.47
-88.0%
$1.63
-$12.54
-88.5%
$0.07
4.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0697275,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0622899,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.451500000000003,
"optimistic_value": 17.42,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:20.604895Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.055782,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09297,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 1.7435,
"optimistic_value": 1.74,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 1.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:50:31.949890Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0604305,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 3.53,
"optimistic_value": 3.53,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 3.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:19.191966Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.065079,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 4.2,
"optimistic_value": 4.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 4.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:34.980703Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09297,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 1.7005,
"optimistic_value": 1.69,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:23:19.271026Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.065079,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 4.38,
"optimistic_value": 4.38,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 4.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:26:25.906461Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_be417639def07a4485e37f95",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "525375522203724595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:38.460331Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-14669f15615e",
"listing_id": "651475115893292082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Meow 36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-14669f15615e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:47:32.481645Z"
},
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "635712445338920863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:56.380254Z"
},
{
"price": 1.04,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "508487189339664218",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:14.430727Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "649223316125024632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:53:34.191819Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:43:21.343381Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:43:21.343381Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "494976390476633226",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:31.529735Z"
},
{
"price": 1.79,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "500605889841179615",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:31.529735Z"
},
{
"price": 2.16,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "529879287551192580",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:53.494641Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.58 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.32 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.12 Downtown 6.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +204.8% | $6.98 +33.5% | 70.0% | +96.1% | $5.23 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.58 Dragon Tech 14.0% $1.32 Vent Rush 14.0% $1.12 Downtown 14.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +501.6% | $3.57 +34.6% | 30.0% | +166.1% | $2.65 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.58 Dragon Tech 4.0% $1.30 Vent Rush 4.0% $1.12 Downtown 4.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +162.6% | $7.84 +29.1% | 53.3% | +81.3% | $6.07 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.05 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.58 Dragon Tech 2.0% $1.25 Vent Rush 2.0% $1.12 Downtown 2.0% $1.10 | $15.94 +131.0% | $8.67 +25.7% | 60.0% | +69.3% | $6.90 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.58 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.30 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.12 Downtown 16.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +611.7% | $2.72 +21.4% | 20.0% | +170.8% | $2.24 | — |