The Clutch Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Grip
1x $0.17
Night Riot
3x $0.23
Urban Hazard
1x $0.29
Cobalt Paisley
3x $0.29
Yeti Camo
1x $0.32
Royal Baroque
1x $0.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
25.0% $6.93
Royal Guard
25.0% $1.36
Moonrise
10.0% $1.28
Lionfish
10.0% $0.82
Arctic Wolf
10.0% $0.73
Wild Six
10.0% $0.71
Max Win
$6.93 (+148.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.50 (-10.5%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+92.2%
Cost
$2.79
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.79
Ask Price EV $2.50 (-10.5%)
Bid Price EV $2.09 (-25.0%)
Ask Profit $-0.29 (-10.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.70 (-25.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.41 (+14.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.29
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.70
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $6.93 (+148.4%)
Worst Case $0.71 (-74.6%)
Volatility +92.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 75.0%
Avg Win +$4.14
Avg Loss -$1.77
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.71 (-74.6%)
Std Dev $2.57
Avg Norm Float 0.4493
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 144h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Well-Worn
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Urban Hazard
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 13M 37S //TOTAL COST $2.79 //ASK PRICE EV $2.50 //BID PRICE EV $2.09 //ASK PROFIT $-0.29 (-10.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.70 (-25.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +92.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$6.93
+$4.14
+148.4%
$5.76
+$2.97
+106.5%
$1.17
16.9%
—
NUKE
25.0%
$1.36
-$1.43
-51.3%
$1.07
-$1.72
-61.6%
$0.29
21.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.28
-$1.51
-54.1%
$1.16
-$1.63
-58.4%
$0.12
9.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.82
-$1.97
-70.5%
$0.81
-$1.98
-71.0%
$0.01
1.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.73
-$2.06
-73.8%
$0.64
-$2.15
-77.1%
$0.09
12.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.71
-$2.08
-74.4%
$0.64
-$2.15
-77.1%
$0.07
10.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.71
-$2.08
-74.6%
$0.60
-$2.19
-78.5%
$0.11
15.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.337005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.931,
"optimistic_value": 6.84,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 5.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.269604,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.3575,
"optimistic_value": 1.34,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:44.881028Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.292071,
"output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
"realistic_value": 1.2805,
"optimistic_value": 1.27,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:37:50.800531Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.41339280000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
"conservative_value": 0.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:30.156141Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.24713700000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
"realistic_value": 0.8234999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T14:46:22.743385Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.359472,
"output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:13.184110Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.359472,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
"realistic_value": 0.73,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:38.396482Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_bc152df1605551665069da05",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "496101493266995291",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Well-Worn)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:35.973268Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "506235389469616620",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:08:07.015298Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "508487189340261854",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:08:07.015298Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "518619491434524568",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:44.100215Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-87386812a8f9",
"listing_id": "509613036859202871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Urban Hazard",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-87386812a8f9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:09.903225Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "514116688949730030",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.669375Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "512990736599751659",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.669375Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "525375522204095143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.669375Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "492724538182088361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:48.467459Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "512990789045192927",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:32.902992Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.45 Moonrise 10.0% $2.25 Lionfish 10.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 10.0% $0.83 Arctic Wolf 10.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +261.5% | $6.46 +29.2% | 50.0% | +134.0% | $5.00 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.78 Moonrise 10.0% $5.40 Lionfish 10.0% $3.74 SWAG-7 10.0% $1.77 Arctic Wolf 10.0% $1.50 | $38.92 +174.7% | $14.57 +2.8% | 25.0% | +100.3% | $14.17 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.73 Moonrise 12.0% $2.25 Lionfish 12.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 12.0% $0.80 Arctic Wolf 12.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +346.3% | $5.45 +34.7% | 40.0% | +157.1% | $4.05 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.73 Moonrise 14.0% $2.25 Lionfish 14.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 14.0% $0.80 Arctic Wolf 14.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +447.8% | $4.38 +32.7% | 30.0% | +176.8% | $3.30 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.45 Moonrise 8.0% $2.25 Lionfish 8.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 8.0% $0.83 Arctic Wolf 8.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +203.3% | $7.52 +26.2% | 30.0% | +115.4% | $5.96 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.45 Moonrise 6.0% $2.25 Lionfish 6.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.80 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +155.3% | $8.58 +21.2% | 35.0% | +97.8% | $7.08 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.78 Moonrise 2.0% $5.40 Lionfish 2.0% $3.74 SWAG-7 2.0% $1.77 Arctic Wolf 2.0% $1.50 | $38.92 +93.5% | $23.99 +19.3% | 45.0% | +67.1% | $20.11 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.45 Moonrise 4.0% $2.25 Lionfish 4.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 4.0% $0.80 Arctic Wolf 4.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +119.9% | $9.64 +17.3% | 40.0% | +83.2% | $8.22 | — |