The Clutch Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Black Sand
1x $0.30
Oxide Blaze
1x $0.34
Grip
1x $0.39
Flame Test
1x $1.79
Night Riot
1x $2.56
Royal Baroque
3x $1.40
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
25.0% $38.92
Royal Guard
25.0% $13.78
Moonrise
10.0% $5.40
Lionfish
10.0% $3.74
SWAG-7
10.0% $1.77
Arctic Wolf
10.0% $1.50
Max Win
$38.92 (+174.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$14.57 (+2.8%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+104.5%
Cost
$14.17
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $14.17
Ask Price EV $14.57 (+2.8%)
Bid Price EV $13.20 (-6.8%)
Ask Profit $0.40 (+2.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.97 (-6.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.37 (+9.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.40
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.97
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+174.7%)
Worst Case $1.48 (-89.6%)
Volatility +104.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$24.75
Avg Loss -$7.72
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.48 (-89.6%)
Std Dev $14.80
Avg Norm Float 0.0933
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 96h 44m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Black Sand
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Flame Test
—
Factory New
$1.79 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Factory New
$2.56 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.40 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.13 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.25 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 13M 37S //TOTAL COST $14.17 //ASK PRICE EV $14.57 //BID PRICE EV $13.20 //ASK PROFIT $0.40 (+2.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.97 (-6.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +104.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$38.92
+$24.75
+174.7%
$34.38
+$20.21
+142.6%
$4.54
11.7%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$13.78
-$0.39
-2.7%
$13.24
-$0.93
-6.6%
$0.54
3.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$5.40
-$8.77
-61.9%
$5.26
-$8.91
-62.9%
$0.14
2.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.74
-$10.43
-73.6%
$3.65
-$10.52
-74.2%
$0.09
2.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.77
-$12.40
-87.5%
$1.65
-$12.52
-88.4%
$0.12
6.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.50
-$12.67
-89.4%
$1.28
-$12.89
-91.0%
$0.22
14.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.48
-$12.69
-89.6%
$1.11
-$13.06
-92.2%
$0.37
24.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.055992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.782,
"optimistic_value": 13.74,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:53.407862Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.060658000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
"realistic_value": 5.4035,
"optimistic_value": 5.4,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 5.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:58.845498Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0858544,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
"realistic_value": 1.77,
"optimistic_value": 1.77,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
"conservative_value": 1.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:34.512571Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.051326000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
"realistic_value": 3.742,
"optimistic_value": 3.7,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:05:57.513551Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.074656,
"output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
"realistic_value": 1.4769999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
"conservative_value": 1.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T04:19:30.791389Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.074656,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
"realistic_value": 1.5,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:41.256248Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_bc152df1605551665069da05",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-cbffebebb7f3",
"listing_id": "502857689862544408",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cbffebebb7f3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:47.881172Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-ae8080ca847c",
"listing_id": "494975593208146122",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Oxide Blaze",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ae8080ca847c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:02.721436Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "498354037510657507",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:04.418909Z"
},
{
"price": 1.79,
"skin_id": "skin-42a677e4f00a",
"listing_id": "523123091077526374",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Flame Test",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42a677e4f00a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:39.568542Z"
},
{
"price": 2.56,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "514115891833693782",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:11.021985Z"
},
{
"price": 1.4,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "498354037509124375",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:38.845080Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:38.845080Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:38.845080Z"
},
{
"price": 2.13,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "525375688037287627",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.966216Z"
},
{
"price": 2.25,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "528753387757791297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.966216Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.45 Moonrise 10.0% $2.25 Lionfish 10.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 10.0% $0.83 Arctic Wolf 10.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +261.5% | $6.46 +29.2% | 50.0% | +134.0% | $5.00 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.73 Moonrise 12.0% $2.25 Lionfish 12.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 12.0% $0.80 Arctic Wolf 12.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +346.3% | $5.45 +34.7% | 40.0% | +157.1% | $4.05 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.73 Moonrise 14.0% $2.25 Lionfish 14.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 14.0% $0.80 Arctic Wolf 14.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +447.8% | $4.38 +32.7% | 30.0% | +176.8% | $3.30 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.45 Moonrise 8.0% $2.25 Lionfish 8.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 8.0% $0.83 Arctic Wolf 8.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +203.3% | $7.52 +26.2% | 30.0% | +115.4% | $5.96 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.45 Moonrise 6.0% $2.25 Lionfish 6.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.80 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +155.3% | $8.58 +21.2% | 35.0% | +97.8% | $7.08 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.78 Moonrise 2.0% $5.40 Lionfish 2.0% $3.74 SWAG-7 2.0% $1.77 Arctic Wolf 2.0% $1.50 | $38.92 +93.5% | $23.99 +19.3% | 45.0% | +67.1% | $20.11 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.45 Moonrise 4.0% $2.25 Lionfish 4.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 4.0% $0.80 Arctic Wolf 4.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +119.9% | $9.64 +17.3% | 40.0% | +83.2% | $8.22 | — |