The CS20 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Assault
1x $2.00
Motorized
1x $0.35
Slag
2x $0.38
Dezastre
3x $0.48
Light Box
1x $0.76
Dark Sigil
1x $0.85
↓
Possible Outputs
Agent
2.0% $29.05
Etch Lord
18.0% $13.06
Buddy
2.0% $9.69
Plastique
2.0% $9.47
Inferno
2.0% $9.33
Just Smile
18.0% $9.31
Max Win
$29.05 (+203.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.09 (-5.1%)
Win %
22.0%
Volatility
+41.2%
Cost
$9.58
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $9.58
Ask Price EV $9.09 (-5.1%)
Bid Price EV $8.07 (-15.8%)
Ask Profit $-0.49 (-5.1%)
Bid Profit $-1.51 (-15.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.02 (+10.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.49
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.51
Risk
Win Probability 22.0%
Loss Probability 78.0%
Best Case $29.05 (+203.2%)
Worst Case $4.13 (-56.9%)
Volatility +41.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 18.0%
Avg Win +$4.63
Avg Loss -$1.93
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.13 (-56.9%)
Std Dev $3.95
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 153h 17m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Assault
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 53M 57S //TOTAL COST $9.58 //ASK PRICE EV $9.09 //BID PRICE EV $8.07 //ASK PROFIT $-0.49 (-5.1%) //BID PROFIT $-1.51 (-15.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 22.0% //BEST CASE $29.05 //VOLATILITY +41.2% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$29.05
+$19.47
+203.2%
$24.09
+$14.51
+151.5%
$4.96
17.1%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$13.06
+$3.48
+36.3%
$12.03
+$2.45
+25.6%
$1.03
7.9%
—
PAPER WIN
2.0%
$9.69
+$0.11
+1.2%
$7.59
-$1.99
-20.8%
$2.10
21.7%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$9.47
-$0.11
-1.2%
$8.37
-$1.21
-12.6%
$1.10
11.6%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$9.33
-$0.25
-2.6%
$8.48
-$1.10
-11.5%
$0.85
9.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$9.31
-$0.27
-2.8%
$7.84
-$1.74
-18.2%
$1.47
15.8%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$8.90
-$0.68
-7.1%
$7.77
-$1.81
-18.9%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$7.89
-$1.69
-17.6%
$7.43
-$2.15
-22.4%
$0.46
5.8%
—
LOSS THIN BID
2.0%
$7.33
-$2.25
-23.5%
$5.38
-$4.20
-43.8%
$1.95
26.6%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$4.13
-$5.45
-56.9%
$3.76
-$5.82
-60.8%
$0.37
8.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-24|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-24"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:09.190119Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.046816250000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.314,
"optimistic_value": 9.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:05.365814Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0431221648,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.1265,
"optimistic_value": 4.06,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:48.352551Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.038324000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-31de22ad9746",
"realistic_value": 9.694500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 9.46,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Buddy",
"conservative_value": 7.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Buddy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T17:41:03.882537Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-31de22ad9746.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.05226,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ca39d6a9fe2",
"realistic_value": 7.3294999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 7.27,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Aztec",
"conservative_value": 5.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:19.865424Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ca39d6a9fe2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4ef86547d990",
"realistic_value": 29.0475,
"optimistic_value": 28.54,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Agent",
"conservative_value": 24.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Agent (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:25:46.088683Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4ef86547d990.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.047382400000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5bcef416d83b",
"realistic_value": 9.3305,
"optimistic_value": 9.25,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Inferno",
"conservative_value": 8.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:28:42.890128Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5bcef416d83b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.05574400000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-520d7a1ce647",
"realistic_value": 9.468499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 9.36,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Plastique",
"conservative_value": 8.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:38:48.942466Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-520d7a1ce647.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b8c0af8de5c25096d4ff7753",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-df8e665e3faa",
"listing_id": "518619491402839852",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Assault",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-df8e665e3faa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:36:33.599961Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:24:50.901899Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "508486392212133206",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:31:21.488956Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "636838417157749708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:42:10.295566Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "493850324808131632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:31:21.488956Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:42:10.295566Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "622201718386433724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:37:00.144854Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:12.161981Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "519746022669746780",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:39:22.203933Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "509613142168459839",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:42:53.353857Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-24:1+collection-set-community-33:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The CS20 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Agent 2.0% $5.44 Buddy 2.0% $5.28 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Inferno 2.0% $3.76 Aztec 2.0% $3.57 | $5.44 +82.7% | $3.41 +14.4% | 64.0% | +22.8% | $2.98 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The CS20 Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Agent 6.0% $5.44 Buddy 6.0% $5.28 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.46 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Inferno 6.0% $3.76 Aztec 6.0% $3.50 | $5.44 +81.4% | $3.59 +19.7% | 72.0% | +24.4% | $3.00 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Agent 4.0% $5.44 Buddy 4.0% $5.28 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Inferno 4.0% $3.76 Aztec 4.0% $3.57 | $5.44 +85.1% | $3.50 +19.2% | 68.0% | +24.0% | $2.94 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Agent 10.0% $5.44 Buddy 10.0% $5.28 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Inferno 10.0% $3.76 Aztec 10.0% $3.57 | $5.44 +60.1% | $3.79 +11.4% | 60.0% | +22.1% | $3.40 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The CS20 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  30.0% $37.06 Hydra  3.3% $19.93 Nostalgia  3.3% $18.09 Jawbreaker  30.0% $14.90 Olympus  30.0% $14.32 Death by Puppy  3.3% $12.66 | $37.06 +90.9% | $21.57 +11.1% | 33.3% | +52.6% | $19.41 | — |