The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Wall Bang
1x $0.06
Midnight Paintover
1x $0.11
Wash me plz
1x $0.14
Basket Halftone
3x $0.09
Grey Ghost
3x $0.12
Steel Work
1x $0.14
↓
Possible Outputs
Teal Graf
7.5% $2.25
Arsenic Spill
11.7% $2.12
Rose Hex
11.7% $1.80
Coral Bloom
11.7% $1.36
Pipsqueak
7.5% $1.22
Wurst Hölle
7.5% $1.16
Max Win
$2.25 (+97.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.34 (+17.9%)
Win %
57.5%
Volatility
+43.7%
Cost
$1.14
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.14
Ask Price EV $1.34 (+17.9%)
Bid Price EV $1.26 (+11.0%)
Ask Profit $0.20 (+17.9%)
Bid Profit $0.12 (+11.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.08 (+6.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.20
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.12
Risk
Win Probability 57.5%
Loss Probability 42.5%
Best Case $2.25 (+97.4%)
Worst Case $0.75 (-34.2%)
Volatility +43.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 19.2%
Avg Win +$0.53
Avg Loss -$0.24
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.75 (-34.2%)
Std Dev $0.50
Avg Norm Float 0.1383
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 125h 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Wash me plz
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 20S //TOTAL COST $1.14 //ASK PRICE EV $1.34 //BID PRICE EV $1.26 //ASK PROFIT $0.20 (+17.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.12 (+11.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 57.5% //BEST CASE $2.25 //VOLATILITY +43.7% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$2.25
+$1.11
+97.4%
$2.13
+$0.99
+86.8%
$0.12
5.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
11.7%
$2.12
+$0.98
+85.7%
$2.09
+$0.95
+83.3%
$0.03
1.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
11.7%
$1.80
+$0.66
+57.9%
$1.77
+$0.63
+55.3%
$0.03
1.7%
—
WIN
11.7%
$1.36
+$0.22
+18.9%
$1.15
+$0.01
+0.9%
$0.21
15.2%
—
PAPER WIN
7.5%
$1.22
+$0.08
+6.8%
$1.12
-$0.02
-1.8%
$0.10
8.0%
—
PAPER WIN
7.5%
$1.16
+$0.02
+1.8%
$1.10
-$0.04
-3.5%
$0.06
5.2%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$1.02
-$0.12
-10.2%
$1.00
-$0.14
-12.3%
$0.02
2.3%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$0.95
-$0.19
-16.4%
$0.82
-$0.32
-28.1%
$0.13
14.0%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$0.81
-$0.33
-28.6%
$0.74
-$0.40
-35.1%
$0.07
9.0%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$0.75
-$0.39
-34.2%
$0.74
-$0.40
-35.1%
$0.01
1.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.06939610825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.1175,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:15.096454Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.10409409325,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.069125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.8,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:16.360277Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.08295000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.8135,
"optimistic_value": 0.81,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:30.032773Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.10368750000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.024,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:35:03.723582Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.09379308575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.9534999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:15.925669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.08295000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 0.75,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:53.127742Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.069125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 2.25,
"optimistic_value": 2.25,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:58:35.399193Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.12442500000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 1.2169999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.21,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T11:42:04.443708Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.13825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 1.16,
"optimistic_value": 1.16,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 1.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:44.823948Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b66472650d57a0b092f31118",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "525375740885636395",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:38:12.107845Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-aec4b9b50be0",
"listing_id": "526501422105979913",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aec4b9b50be0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:28:32.340754Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-85f1f4db456f",
"listing_id": "494976390477273234",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85f1f4db456f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:20:43.210952Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "518620288312818292",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:37.526089Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "510739041954330970",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:37.526089Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176009775",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:37.526089Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "512990789045188967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:03.029061Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "523123091070954826",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:03.029061Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "509613089305540863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:03.029061Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "505109437006752140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:11.603854Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 Red Tide 11.7% $1.02 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $1.01 Blush Pour 11.7% $0.95 Shredded 11.7% $0.81 Metallic Squeezer 7.5% $0.75 | $1.36 +73.8% | $0.86 +10.5% | 58.3% | +24.4% | $0.78 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Teal Graf 10.0% $2.19 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.13 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.80 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 Pipsqueak 10.0% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 10.0% $1.16 | $2.19 +93.4% | $1.33 +17.7% | 60.0% | +35.7% | $1.13 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.22 Teal Graf 12.5% $2.19 Rose Hex 8.3% $1.80 Coral Bloom 8.3% $1.36 Pipsqueak 12.5% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 12.5% $1.16 | $2.22 +93.1% | $1.34 +16.4% | 62.5% | +36.7% | $1.15 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Teal Graf 15.0% $2.25 Arsenic Spill 6.7% $2.12 Rose Hex 6.7% $1.80 Coral Bloom 6.7% $1.36 Pipsqueak 15.0% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 15.0% $1.16 | $2.25 +89.1% | $1.34 +13.0% | 50.0% | +36.1% | $1.19 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  30.0% $15.94 Monster Melt  3.3% $8.45 Glitched Paint  30.0% $6.78 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $5.54 Eye of Zapems  3.3% $4.12 Sweet Little Angels  3.3% $4.07 | $15.94 +111.1% | $9.03 +19.7% | 33.3% | +60.9% | $7.55 | — |