The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Wall Bang
2x $0.07
Midnight Paintover
1x $0.09
Grey Ghost
2x $0.05
Basket Halftone
3x $0.06
Steel Work
2x $0.07
↓
Possible Outputs
Coral Bloom
11.7% $1.36
Red Tide
11.7% $1.02
Arsenic Spill
11.7% $1.01
Blush Pour
11.7% $0.88
Shredded
11.7% $0.82
Metallic Squeezer
7.5% $0.75
Max Win
$1.36 (+73.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$0.86 (+9.7%)
Win %
58.3%
Volatility
+32.4%
Cost
$0.78
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $0.78
Ask Price EV $0.86 (+9.7%)
Bid Price EV $0.79 (+1.2%)
Ask Profit $0.08 (+9.7%)
Bid Profit $0.01 (+1.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.07 (+8.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.08
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.01
Risk
Win Probability 58.3%
Loss Probability 41.7%
Best Case $1.36 (+73.8%)
Worst Case $0.41 (-47.0%)
Volatility +32.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 15.0%
Avg Win +$0.24
Avg Loss -$0.15
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.41 (-47.0%)
Std Dev $0.25
Avg Norm Float 0.1981
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 26m
Oldest Output Price 126h 30m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Field-Tested
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 42M 22S //TOTAL COST $0.78 //ASK PRICE EV $0.86 //BID PRICE EV $0.79 //ASK PROFIT $0.08 (+9.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.01 (+1.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 58.3% //BEST CASE $1.36 //VOLATILITY +32.4% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
11.7%
$1.36
+$0.58
+73.8%
$1.15
+$0.37
+47.4%
$0.21
15.2%
—
WIN
11.7%
$1.02
+$0.24
+31.3%
$1.00
+$0.22
+28.2%
$0.02
2.3%
—
WIN
11.7%
$1.01
+$0.22
+28.8%
$0.89
+$0.11
+14.1%
$0.11
11.4%
—
SMALL WIN
11.7%
$0.88
+$0.10
+12.2%
$0.82
+$0.04
+5.1%
$0.06
6.3%
—
PAPER WIN
11.7%
$0.82
+$0.04
+4.7%
$0.74
-$0.04
-5.1%
$0.08
9.4%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$0.75
-$0.03
-3.8%
$0.74
-$0.04
-5.1%
$0.01
1.3%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$0.74
-$0.04
-5.0%
$0.70
-$0.08
-10.3%
$0.04
5.5%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$0.69
-$0.09
-11.5%
$0.64
-$0.14
-17.9%
$0.05
7.2%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$0.50
-$0.28
-35.9%
$0.50
-$0.28
-35.9%
$0.00
0.0%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$0.41
-$0.37
-47.0%
$0.40
-$0.38
-48.7%
$0.01
3.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.09942843488,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 1.005,
"optimistic_value": 0.97,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:27.049249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.14914255328,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.09904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 0.741,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:12.268433Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.118848,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.8170000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.81,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:11.222413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.14856,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.024,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:17.697033Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.13438361248,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.8755,
"optimistic_value": 0.83,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:19:18.063232Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.118848,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 0.75,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:53.127742Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.09904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:32.675295Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.178272,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 0.4135,
"optimistic_value": 0.41,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 0.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:04:03.848394Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.19808,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 0.5,
"optimistic_value": 0.5,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 0.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:39.322158Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b66472650d57a0b092f31118",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "493850438105537140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:58.443246Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "524249735517159423",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:58.443246Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-aec4b9b50be0",
"listing_id": "496102343225941823",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aec4b9b50be0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:19:55.282153Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "525375740885754187",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:36.785762Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "529879287551138868",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:21:14.226396Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "517494441497828410",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:36.785762Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "630083017733692770",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:05:53.378390Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "502857742727045476",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:28.670008Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "524249840859469287",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:28.670008Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "515242641502135501",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:49.774898Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.16 Teal Graf 7.5% $2.14 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.80 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 Pipsqueak 7.5% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 7.5% $1.16 | $2.16 +91.3% | $1.33 +17.9% | 57.5% | +35.2% | $1.13 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.16 Teal Graf 10.0% $2.14 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.80 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 Pipsqueak 10.0% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 10.0% $1.16 | $2.16 +91.3% | $1.33 +18.0% | 60.0% | +35.4% | $1.13 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.22 Teal Graf 12.5% $2.19 Rose Hex 8.3% $1.80 Coral Bloom 8.3% $1.36 Pipsqueak 12.5% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 12.5% $1.16 | $2.22 +93.1% | $1.34 +16.4% | 62.5% | +36.7% | $1.15 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 6.7% $2.16 Teal Graf 15.0% $2.14 Rose Hex 6.7% $1.80 Coral Bloom 6.7% $1.36 Pipsqueak 15.0% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 15.0% $1.16 | $2.16 +81.7% | $1.33 +11.4% | 50.0% | +34.3% | $1.19 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  13.3% $15.94 Eye of Zapems  20.0% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels  20.0% $10.29 Monster Melt  20.0% $8.45 Glitched Paint  13.3% $6.85 Bleeding Edge  13.3% $5.46 | $15.94 +107.6% | $9.61 +25.1% | 73.3% | +39.4% | $7.68 | — |