The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Wash me
2x $0.31
Wash me plz
1x $1.24
Steel Work
3x $0.14
Basket Halftone
1x $0.29
Grey Ghost
2x $0.38
Sedimentary
1x $1.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Pipsqueak
7.5% $6.82
Wurst Hölle
7.5% $5.10
Coral Bloom
11.7% $4.96
Red Tide
11.7% $3.33
Blush Pour
11.7% $2.37
Metallic Squeezer
7.5% $2.18
Max Win
$6.82 (+33.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.13 (-38.7%)
Win %
7.5%
Volatility
+30.6%
Cost
$5.11
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.11
Ask Price EV $3.13 (-38.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.05 (-40.2%)
Ask Profit $-1.98 (-38.7%)
Bid Profit $-2.06 (-40.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.08 (+1.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.98
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.06
Risk
Win Probability 7.5%
Loss Probability 92.5%
Best Case $6.82 (+33.5%)
Worst Case $1.79 (-65.0%)
Volatility +30.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 73.3%
Avg Win +$1.71
Avg Loss -$2.28
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.79 (-65.0%)
Std Dev $1.56
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 152h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Wash me
—
Factory New
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Wash me
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Wash me plz
—
Factory New
$1.24 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sedimentary
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 56S //TOTAL COST $5.11 //ASK PRICE EV $3.13 //BID PRICE EV $3.05 //ASK PROFIT $-1.98 (-38.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.06 (-40.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 7.5% //BEST CASE $6.82 //VOLATILITY +30.6% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
7.5%
$6.82
+$1.71
+33.5%
$6.71
+$1.60
+31.3%
$0.11
1.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$5.10
-$0.01
-0.2%
$4.90
-$0.21
-4.1%
$0.20
3.9%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$4.96
-$0.15
-2.9%
$4.92
-$0.19
-3.7%
$0.04
0.8%
—
LOSS
11.7%
$3.33
-$1.78
-34.8%
$3.31
-$1.80
-35.2%
$0.02
0.6%
—
NUKE
11.7%
$2.37
-$2.74
-53.6%
$2.09
-$3.02
-59.1%
$0.28
11.8%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$2.18
-$2.93
-57.3%
$2.16
-$2.95
-57.7%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
11.7%
$2.16
-$2.95
-57.7%
$2.09
-$3.02
-59.1%
$0.07
3.3%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$2.14
-$2.97
-58.1%
$2.13
-$2.98
-58.3%
$0.01
0.5%
—
NUKE
11.7%
$1.80
-$3.31
-64.8%
$1.77
-$3.34
-65.4%
$0.03
1.7%
—
NUKE
11.7%
$1.79
-$3.32
-65.0%
$1.77
-$3.34
-65.4%
$0.02
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.035132250389999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.162,
"optimistic_value": 2.12,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:46.499762Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.05269834059,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.961,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T15:33:54.664938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.034995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.8,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:42:42.203281Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.787,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:57:58.353684Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.0524925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.33,
"optimistic_value": 3.33,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:19.646394Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.11666666666666665,
"output_float": 0.04748338569,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.37,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:16:46.009381Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 2.18,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:55:51.951881Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.034995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 2.14,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:32.569707Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.062991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 6.8235,
"optimistic_value": 6.82,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 6.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:15:07.257918Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 5.1000000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 5.03,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 4.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:00.365094Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b66472650d57a0b092f31118",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d26b2336552f",
"listing_id": "512990841908488571",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wash me (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Wash me",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d26b2336552f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:08:04.813844Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d26b2336552f",
"listing_id": "496102343225998847",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wash me (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Wash me",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d26b2336552f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:08:04.813844Z"
},
{
"price": 1.24,
"skin_id": "skin-85f1f4db456f",
"listing_id": "505109542379564984",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85f1f4db456f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:25:09.606118Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "505109437006752140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:49.774898Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "527627435179952036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:49.774898Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "525375740885273911",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:11:02.723778Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "528752590489954389",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:24.443034Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "507361123689186349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:24.443034Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "490472843632895547",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:12:14.055111Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-7efe4d3e7779",
"listing_id": "501731842661951177",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Sedimentary",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7efe4d3e7779.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:28:14.040936Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.16 Teal Graf 7.5% $2.14 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.80 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 Pipsqueak 7.5% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 7.5% $1.16 | $2.16 +91.3% | $1.33 +17.9% | 57.5% | +35.2% | $1.13 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 Red Tide 11.7% $1.02 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $1.01 Blush Pour 11.7% $0.88 Shredded 11.7% $0.82 Metallic Squeezer 7.5% $0.75 | $1.36 +73.8% | $0.86 +9.7% | 58.3% | +24.4% | $0.78 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.16 Teal Graf 10.0% $2.14 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.80 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 Pipsqueak 10.0% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 10.0% $1.16 | $2.16 +91.3% | $1.33 +18.0% | 60.0% | +35.4% | $1.13 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.22 Teal Graf 12.5% $2.19 Rose Hex 8.3% $1.80 Coral Bloom 8.3% $1.36 Pipsqueak 12.5% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 12.5% $1.16 | $2.22 +93.1% | $1.34 +16.4% | 62.5% | +36.7% | $1.15 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 6.7% $2.16 Teal Graf 15.0% $2.14 Rose Hex 6.7% $1.80 Coral Bloom 6.7% $1.36 Pipsqueak 15.0% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 15.0% $1.16 | $2.16 +81.7% | $1.33 +11.4% | 50.0% | +34.3% | $1.19 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  13.3% $15.94 Eye of Zapems  20.0% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels  20.0% $10.29 Monster Melt  20.0% $8.45 Glitched Paint  13.3% $6.85 Bleeding Edge  13.3% $5.46 | $15.94 +107.6% | $9.61 +25.1% | 73.3% | +39.4% | $7.68 | — |