The Safehouse Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Forest Leaves
3x $0.10
VariCamo
1x $0.16
Condemned
1x $0.23
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.12
Robin's Egg
2x $0.14
Rose Nacre
1x $0.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Mint Fan
10.0% $3.37
Teardown
16.7% $2.84
Royal Baroque
10.0% $2.64
Reef Grief
10.0% $2.26
Yeti Camo
10.0% $1.90
Silver Quartz
16.7% $1.38
Max Win
$3.37 (+103.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.06 (+23.8%)
Win %
56.7%
Volatility
+45.2%
Cost
$1.66
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.66
Ask Price EV $2.06 (+23.8%)
Bid Price EV $1.97 (+18.4%)
Ask Profit $0.40 (+23.8%)
Bid Profit $0.30 (+18.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.09 (+5.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.40
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.30
Risk
Win Probability 56.7%
Loss Probability 43.3%
Best Case $3.37 (+103.2%)
Worst Case $1.14 (-31.3%)
Volatility +45.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 10.0%
Avg Win +$0.97
Avg Loss -$0.35
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.14 (-31.3%)
Std Dev $0.75
Avg Norm Float 0.1154
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 1h 18m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Condemned
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 22M 15S //TOTAL COST $1.66 //ASK PRICE EV $2.06 //BID PRICE EV $1.97 //ASK PROFIT $0.40 (+23.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.30 (+18.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 56.7% //BEST CASE $3.37 //VOLATILITY +45.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$3.37
+$1.71
+103.2%
$3.33
+$1.67
+100.6%
$0.04
1.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$2.84
+$1.18
+70.9%
$2.79
+$1.13
+68.1%
$0.05
1.7%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.64
+$0.98
+59.0%
$2.62
+$0.96
+57.8%
$0.02
0.8%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.26
+$0.60
+36.0%
$1.99
+$0.33
+19.9%
$0.27
11.8%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$1.90
+$0.24
+14.5%
$1.62
-$0.04
-2.4%
$0.28
14.7%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$1.38
-$0.28
-16.9%
$1.33
-$0.33
-19.9%
$0.05
3.6%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$1.33
-$0.33
-19.8%
$1.31
-$0.35
-21.1%
$0.02
1.5%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.14
-$0.52
-31.3%
$1.04
-$0.62
-37.3%
$0.10
8.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-safehouse|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.069258,
"output_skin_id": "skin-466d0513f5e8",
"realistic_value": 2.837,
"optimistic_value": 2.83,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 2.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:04:05.847815Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-466d0513f5e8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.046172000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45614ab4f605",
"realistic_value": 1.38,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz",
"conservative_value": 1.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:04:20.012307Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45614ab4f605.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0034629,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d85f69ac3c8",
"realistic_value": 1.3305,
"optimistic_value": 1.32,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade",
"conservative_value": 1.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:12:08.973964Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d85f69ac3c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.069258,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:17:12.846419Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.080801,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.9,
"optimistic_value": 1.9,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:55:31.481063Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0750295,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.141,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:53.037696Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.069258,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:52.144045Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.069258,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.257,
"optimistic_value": 2.25,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:31.395752Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b636279386ffadae92ef8c16",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "520872088105979016",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:17:34.257572Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "606438509290341941",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:17:34.257572Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "528752590517010405",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:08:56.965729Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-64d604ccd5cf",
"listing_id": "509613089304149787",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Condemned (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Condemned",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-64d604ccd5cf.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:00:53.202626Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "524249787961878027",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:27.706835Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "514116688950363306",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:19:58.936321Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "502857637417906948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:20:27.068208Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "507361237008872437",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:20:27.068208Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "516368488724892626",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:24.267967Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:16.228466Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-safehouse:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.90 Acid Fade 16.7% $1.33 Cobalt Paisley 10.0% $1.14 Royal Baroque 10.0% $1.10 Mint Fan 10.0% $1.03 Reef Grief 10.0% $0.98 | $1.90 +120.9% | $0.96 +11.8% | 66.7% | +39.7% | $0.86 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 14.0% $3.37 Teardown 10.0% $2.81 Royal Baroque 14.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 14.0% $2.26 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.79 Silver Quartz 10.0% $1.38 | $3.37 +100.8% | $2.12 +26.3% | 66.0% | +36.6% | $1.68 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 12.0% $3.37 Teardown 13.3% $2.84 Royal Baroque 12.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 12.0% $2.26 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.79 Silver Quartz 13.3% $1.38 | $3.37 +102.0% | $2.08 +24.8% | 61.3% | +37.5% | $1.67 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 8.0% $3.37 Teardown 20.0% $2.84 Royal Baroque 8.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 8.0% $2.26 Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.90 Silver Quartz 20.0% $1.38 | $3.37 +96.1% | $2.01 +17.1% | 52.0% | +36.8% | $1.72 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 6.0% $3.37 Teardown 23.3% $2.84 Royal Baroque 6.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 6.0% $2.26 Yeti Camo 6.0% $1.79 Silver Quartz 23.3% $1.38 | $3.37 +85.4% | $1.97 +8.0% | 41.3% | +35.2% | $1.82 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.64 Nitro  10.0% $1.89 | $38.92 +86.3% | $23.84 +14.1% | 45.0% | +67.2% | $20.89 | — |