The Safehouse Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5

Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items

Factory New -56.2%Field-Tested +13.4%Minimal Wear +24.7%

Contract

Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New

Inputs

Condemned

1x $0.23

Forest Leaves

2x $0.27

VariCamo

2x $0.73

Gum Wall Camo

3x $0.36

Rose Nacre

1x $0.46

Ocean Topo

1x $1.05

↓

Possible Outputs

Yeti Camo

10.0% $4.46

Mint Fan

10.0% $3.36

Teardown

16.7% $2.82

Cobalt Paisley

10.0% $2.65

Royal Baroque

10.0% $2.64

Reef Grief

10.0% $2.25

Max Win

$4.46 (-20.8%)

EV (ROI %)

$2.46 (-56.2%)

Win %

0.0%

Volatility

+16.9%

Cost

$5.63

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $5.63

Ask Price EV $2.46 (-56.2%)

Bid Price EV $2.40 (-57.4%)

Ask Profit $-3.17 (-56.2%)

Bid Profit $-3.23 (-57.4%)

Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+1.1%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.17

Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.23

Risk

Win Probability 0.00%

Loss Probability 100.0%

Best Case $4.46 (-20.8%)

Worst Case $1.36 (-75.8%)

Volatility +16.9%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%

Avg Win —

Avg Loss -$3.17

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.36 (-75.8%)

Std Dev $0.95

Avg Norm Float 0.0696

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 20m

Oldest Output Price 3h 33m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Tight

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

AUG | Condemned

—

Minimal Wear

$0.23 Float: HIDDEN

USP-S | Forest Leaves

—

Minimal Wear

$0.27 Float: HIDDEN

USP-S | Forest Leaves

—

Minimal Wear

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | VariCamo

—

Factory New

$0.73 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | VariCamo

—

Factory New

$0.84 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo

—

Factory New

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo

—

Factory New

$0.41 Float: HIDDEN

Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre

—

Factory New

$0.46 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo

—

Factory New

$0.92 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Ocean Topo

—

Factory New

$1.05 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 21M 23S //TOTAL COST $5.63 //ASK PRICE EV $2.46 //BID PRICE EV $2.40 //ASK PROFIT $-3.17 (-56.2%) //BID PROFIT $-3.23 (-57.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $4.46 //VOLATILITY +16.9% //

Possible Outputs · 8

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-safehouse|Industrial Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.16666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.041735999999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-466d0513f5e8",
      "realistic_value": 2.817,
      "optimistic_value": 2.81,
      "output_full_name": "FAMAS | Teardown",
      "conservative_value": 2.79,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:32.739850Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-466d0513f5e8.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.16666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.027824,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-45614ab4f605",
      "realistic_value": 1.3605,
      "optimistic_value": 1.35,
      "output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz",
      "conservative_value": 1.33,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:38.546714Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45614ab4f605.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.16666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.0020867999999999998,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8d85f69ac3c8",
      "realistic_value": 1.3835,
      "optimistic_value": 1.38,
      "output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade",
      "conservative_value": 1.31,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:20:36.411062Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d85f69ac3c8.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.041735999999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "realistic_value": 3.3605,
      "optimistic_value": 3.35,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "conservative_value": 3.3,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:03:25.092091Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.04869199999999999,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
      "optimistic_value": 4.45,
      "output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "conservative_value": 4.43,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.045214,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "realistic_value": 2.65,
      "optimistic_value": 2.65,
      "output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "conservative_value": 2.62,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:39.416285Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.041735999999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "realistic_value": 2.64,
      "optimistic_value": 2.64,
      "output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "conservative_value": 2.62,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:47.525284Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.041735999999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "realistic_value": 2.2535,
      "optimistic_value": 2.25,
      "output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "conservative_value": 1.99,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:38.760376Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_b636279386ffadae92ef8c16",
  "input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.23,
      "skin_id": "skin-64d604ccd5cf",
      "listing_id": "509613089304149787",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Condemned (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "AUG | Condemned",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-64d604ccd5cf.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:08:07.271386Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
      "listing_id": "524249787961878027",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:04:09.465990Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
      "listing_id": "492724590625240353",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:04:09.465990Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.73,
      "skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
      "listing_id": "525374890948652959",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:40.595548Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.84,
      "skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
      "listing_id": "516368322943257110",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:40.595548Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
      "listing_id": "518620288314199036",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:45.374575Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
      "listing_id": "521997988015573782",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:45.374575Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.46,
      "skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
      "listing_id": "490471993876686363",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
      "name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:47.199872Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.92,
      "skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
      "listing_id": "525375522202630771",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:45.374575Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.05,
      "skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
      "listing_id": "622201718380639200",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:53.575650Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-safehouse:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Safehouse Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear	Mint Fan 10.0% $3.36 Teardown 16.7% $2.82 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 10.0% $2.25 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.91 Acid Fade 16.7% $1.38	$3.36 +103.7%	$2.06 +24.7%	56.7%	+37.4%	$1.65	—
The Safehouse Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested	Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.91 Acid Fade 16.7% $1.38 Cobalt Paisley 10.0% $1.14 Royal Baroque 10.0% $1.07 Mint Fan 10.0% $1.06 Reef Grief 10.0% $1.01	$1.91 +122.5%	$0.98 +13.4%	66.7%	+40.3%	$0.86	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear	Mint Fan 12.0% $3.36 Teardown 13.3% $2.82 Royal Baroque 12.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 12.0% $2.25 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.91 Acid Fade 13.3% $1.38	$3.36 +102.4%	$2.10 +26.4%	61.3%	+36.7%	$1.66	—
The Safehouse Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear	Mint Fan 8.0% $3.37 Teardown 20.0% $2.82 Royal Baroque 8.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 8.0% $2.25 Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.90 Acid Fade 20.0% $1.38	$3.37 +98.4%	$2.02 +18.6%	52.0%	+36.9%	$1.70	—
The Safehouse Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear	Mint Fan 6.0% $3.36 Teardown 23.3% $2.82 Royal Baroque 6.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 6.0% $2.25 Yeti Camo 6.0% $1.91 Acid Fade 23.3% $1.38	$3.36 +80.7%	$1.98 +6.2%	47.3%	+33.7%	$1.86	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Safehouse Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.76 Nitro 10.0% $1.89	$38.92 +85.2%	$23.89 +13.7%	45.0%	+66.7%	$21.02	—