The Chop Shop Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Impact Drill
1x $5.66
Army Sheen
1x $5.67
Lime Hex
2x $0.08
Storm Camo
2x $0.09
Grey Smoke
1x $0.12
Blue Tac
1x $0.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Para Green
6.7% $186.52
Urban Rubble
6.7% $66.33
Night
6.7% $33.70
Sour Grapes
8.9% $0.93
Ocean Topo
8.9% $0.81
Electric Blue
8.9% $0.79
Max Win
$186.52 (+1127.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.59 (+28.8%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+315.9%
Cost
$15.20
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $15.20
Ask Price EV $19.59 (+28.8%)
Bid Price EV $16.25 (+6.9%)
Ask Profit $4.39 (+28.8%)
Bid Profit $1.05 (+6.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.33 (+21.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.39
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.05
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $186.52 (+1127.1%)
Worst Case $0.36 (-97.6%)
Volatility +315.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$80.32
Avg Loss -$14.60
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.36 (-97.6%)
Std Dev $48.01
Avg Norm Float 0.0873
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 147h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Impact Drill
—
Well-Worn
$5.66 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Army Sheen
—
Minimal Wear
$5.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Lime Hex
—
Factory New
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Storm Camo
—
Factory New
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Blue Tac
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Night Camo
—
Factory New
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Lime Hex
—
Factory New
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Storm Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Plum Netting
—
Factory New
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 36S //TOTAL COST $15.20 //ASK PRICE EV $19.59 //BID PRICE EV $16.25 //ASK PROFIT $4.39 (+28.8%) //BID PROFIT $1.05 (+6.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $186.52 //VOLATILITY +315.9% //
Possible Outputs · 12
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$186.52
+$171.32
+1127.1%
$155.68
+$140.48
+924.2%
$30.84
16.5%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
6.7%
$66.33
+$51.13
+336.4%
$49.07
+$33.87
+222.8%
$17.26
26.0%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$33.70
+$18.50
+121.7%
$32.43
+$17.23
+113.4%
$1.27
3.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.9%
$0.93
-$14.27
-93.9%
$0.80
-$14.40
-94.7%
$0.13
14.0%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.81
-$14.39
-94.7%
$0.76
-$14.44
-95.0%
$0.05
6.3%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.79
-$14.41
-94.8%
$0.72
-$14.48
-95.3%
$0.07
8.5%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.73
-$14.47
-95.2%
$0.66
-$14.54
-95.7%
$0.07
9.3%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.52
-$14.68
-96.6%
$0.48
-$14.72
-96.8%
$0.04
7.7%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.48
-$14.72
-96.8%
$0.43
-$14.77
-97.2%
$0.05
11.1%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.43
-$14.77
-97.2%
$0.42
-$14.78
-97.2%
$0.01
2.3%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.37
-$14.83
-97.6%
$0.36
-$14.84
-97.6%
$0.01
2.7%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.36
-$14.84
-97.6%
$0.35
-$14.85
-97.7%
$0.01
2.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-chopshop|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.061089,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"realistic_value": 0.43,
"optimistic_value": 0.43,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"conservative_value": 0.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:11.461978Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.052362,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7b6d780443fc",
"realistic_value": 0.52,
"optimistic_value": 0.52,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:12.837447Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b6d780443fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.052362,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"realistic_value": 0.4835,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"conservative_value": 0.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:00.572641Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.052362,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"realistic_value": 0.8115,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"conservative_value": 0.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:27.498786Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.052362,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"realistic_value": 0.728,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:01.449802Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.069816,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"realistic_value": 0.9305,
"optimistic_value": 0.92,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"conservative_value": 0.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:54.283947Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.059206673370000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"realistic_value": 0.37,
"optimistic_value": 0.37,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:28.679257Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.052362,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"realistic_value": 0.36,
"optimistic_value": 0.36,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:16.432341Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.0654525,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"realistic_value": 0.787,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:05.622869Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.12457979999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-07884f77d452",
"realistic_value": 33.7,
"optimistic_value": 33,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Night",
"conservative_value": 32.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:49.361605Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07884f77d452.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.043635,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ee7b966c7ea7",
"realistic_value": 66.331,
"optimistic_value": 59.94,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Urban Rubble",
"conservative_value": 49.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:46.237650Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee7b966c7ea7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.069816,
"output_skin_id": "skin-78d3855fd66e",
"realistic_value": 186.517,
"optimistic_value": 180,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Para Green",
"conservative_value": 155.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Para Green (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:36.519701Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78d3855fd66e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b60a53695966632fc85c419d",
"input_rarity": "Consumer Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 5.66,
"skin_id": "skin-ee71937714b6",
"listing_id": "511864723320584289",
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Impact Drill (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M249 | Impact Drill",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee71937714b6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:11.588401Z"
},
{
"price": 5.67,
"skin_id": "skin-51c3ca06a247",
"listing_id": "500605889842064207",
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Army Sheen",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-51c3ca06a247.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:46:17.399158Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-e6401ef3f5b7",
"listing_id": "521997988016060070",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e6401ef3f5b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:26.845494Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-9973f96c93b5",
"listing_id": "525375688037580775",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Storm Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9973f96c93b5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:47:37.112244Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-080ca3f34d18",
"listing_id": "505109489449505396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-080ca3f34d18.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:50:10.607868Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-23a748f6b597",
"listing_id": "501731789729155409",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Blue Tac (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Blue Tac",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-23a748f6b597.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:47:13.521767Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-aa996ba531f1",
"listing_id": "524249622293717355",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Night Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Night Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aa996ba531f1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:55.379219Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-e6401ef3f5b7",
"listing_id": "517493591338456738",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e6401ef3f5b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:26.845494Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-9973f96c93b5",
"listing_id": "507361237008749785",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Storm Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9973f96c93b5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:47:37.112244Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-4aa647360d8e",
"listing_id": "502856892584675308",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Plum Netting (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Plum Netting",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4aa647360d8e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:52:38.708682Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Consumer Grade|Industrial Grade|normal|10|collection-set-chopshop:2+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chop Shop Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Factory New | Para Green 6.7% $186.52 Urban Rubble 6.7% $66.33 Night 6.7% $33.70 Sour Grapes 8.9% $0.93 Ocean Topo 8.9% $0.81 Electric Blue 8.9% $0.79 | $186.52 +997.8% | $19.59 +15.3% | 20.0% | +270.4% | $16.99 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chop Shop Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 3.3% $186.52 Urban Rubble 3.3% $66.33 Night 3.3% $33.70 Sour Grapes 10.0% $0.93 Ocean Topo 10.0% $0.81 Electric Blue 10.0% $0.79 | $186.52 +2303.6% | $10.09 +30.1% | 10.0% | +444.0% | $7.76 | — |
The Chop Shop Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 13.3% $186.52 Urban Rubble 13.3% $66.33 Night 13.3% $33.70 Sour Grapes 6.7% $0.93 Electric Blue 6.7% $0.79 Ocean Topo 6.7% $0.77 | $186.52 +467.3% | $38.57 +17.3% | 40.0% | +175.0% | $32.88 | — |
The Chop Shop Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 10.0% $186.52 Urban Rubble 10.0% $66.33 Night 10.0% $33.70 Sour Grapes 7.8% $0.93 Ocean Topo 7.8% $0.81 Electric Blue 7.8% $0.79 | $186.52 +631.7% | $29.08 +14.1% | 30.0% | +207.8% | $25.49 | — |